HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of the Acting CE and the Principal OfficialsBack


Press Release on April 12, 2005
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity figures of Acting CE Donald Tsang Yam-kuen and Principal Officials under the accountability system. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the census results. Recent figures on the popularity of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

 
 CE's terms CH Tung's term Donald Tsang's term
 Date of survey 27-31/1 1-4/2 17-20/2 1-3/3 16/3 1-6/4 Latest change
 Sample base 1,023 1,019 1,026 1,019 1,041 1,024 --
 Overall response rate 62.9% 61.5% 67.1% 63.1% 65.2% 63.1% --
 Sampling error of ratings(at 95% conf. level)* @ +/- 1.4 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.0 +/- 1.2 --
 Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% --
 Rating of CE/Acting CE 46.1 46.1 48.4 47.9** 70.4 69.3 -1.1
 Vote of confidence in CE/Acting CE 15% 13% 16% 18% 68% 69% +1%
 Vote of no confidence in CE/Acting CE 67% 67% 69% 69% 9% 12% +3%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** The parallel rating of Donald Tsang as Chief Secretary was 63.7 marks.

 

Results of our survey conducted in early April revealed that the latest rating of Acting CE Donald Tsang was 69.3 marks. Meanwhile, 69% of the respondents supported him as the Chief Executive. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability system are summarized below:

 
 Date of survey 3-6/1 1-4/2 1-3/3 16/3 1-6/4 Latest change
 Sample base 1,022 1,019 1,019 1,041 1,024 --
 Overall response rate 64.6% 61.5% 63.1% 65.2% 63.1% --
 Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)* @ +/- 1.4 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.0 +/- 1.6 --
 CS Donald Tsang 61.2 60.9 63.7 As Acting CE already
 FS Henry Tang 58.0 58.1 59.7 63.3 60.4 -2.9**
 SJ Elsie Leung 49.7 47.8 48.2 -- 49.9 +1.7
 Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao 59.3 60.9 57.5 -- 62.6 +5.1
 Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee 58.9 60.7 56.4 -- 62.4 +6.0
 Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip 55.8 57.1 53.9 -- 59.5 +5.6
 Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow 57.9 57.6 54.8 -- 59.0 +4.2
 Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li 52.3 53.2 50.4 -- 54.7 +4.3
 Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang 52.3 53.1 49.9 -- 54.0 +4.1
 Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho 50.4 51.3 48.1 -- 50.3 +2.2
 Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma 48.9 48.7 47.2 -- 50.1 +2.9
 Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong 49.0 48.4 47.6 -- 49.7 +2.1
 Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen 44.5 45.4 44.5 -- 48.0 +3.5
 Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam 45.0 44.7 43.3 -- 44.8 +1.5

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** If basing on the rating registered in early March, so as to correspond to the comparisons among other Principal Officials, Henry Tang's rating rose 0.7 marks when comparing to a month ago.
@ Erratum: The label of error margins in the original release was mis-typed.

 

Survey conducted in early April showed that, the ratings of FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 60.4 and 49.9 marks respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the 1st and 2nd ranks fell to Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung and Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 62.6 and 62.4 marks correspondingly. Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan and Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok ranked 3rd and 4th, who scored 59.5 and 59.0 marks respectively. Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung and Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah followed behind, scoring 54.7 and 54.0 marks correspondingly. The 7th and 10th ranks fell to Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping and Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung, who attained 50.3, 50.1, 49.7 and 48.0 marks in respective orders. Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung occupied the 11th place with popularity rating of 44.8 marks.

 

As for the popularity indicators based on the hypothetical vote share on the reappointment or dismissal of Principal Officials, support rates of Principal Officials are summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 2-8/8/04 4-7/10/04 1-3/12/04 1-4/2/05 1-6/4/05 Latest change*
 Sample base 1,011 1,016 1,004 1,019 1,024 --
 Overall response rate 59.4% 62.4% 65.7% 61.5% 63.1% --
 Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)** +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% --
 CS Donald Tsang 65% [5%] 67% [6%] 59% [9%] 64% [6%] As Acting CE already
 FS Henry Tang 62% [8%] 62% [8%] 63% [7%] 61% [8%] 61% [6%] -- [-2%]
 SJ Elsie Leung 30% [34%] 27% [37%] 30% [34%] 30% [35%] 31% [30%] +1% [-5%]
 Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao 69% [6%] 72% [7%] 65% [9%] 68% [7%] 65% [7%] -3% [--]
 Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee 69% [3%] 73% [3%] 68% [3%] 68% [3%] 65% [3%] -3% [--]
 Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip 57% [7%] 58% [8%] 53% [7%] 55% [6%] 56% [5%] +1% [-1%]
 Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Survey not started yet 55% [5%] 56% [5%] 54% [9%] -2% [+4%]
 Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li 36% [30%] 43% [27%] 45% [24%] 46% [23%] 44% [22%] -2% [-1%]
 Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho 39% [17%] 41% [24%] 40% [19%] 38% [21%] 34% [22%] -4% [+1%]
 Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma 31% [27%] 33% [28%] 28% [26%] 31% [22%] 32% [25%] +1% [+3%]
 Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang 26% [6%] 27% [7%] 28% [6%] 31% [10%] 29% [9%] -2% [-1%]
 Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong 33% [16%] 33% [20%] 32% [25%] 29% [23%] 29% [24%] -- [+1%]
 Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen 29% [33%] 28% [36%] 22% [47%] 25% [40%] 28% [33%] +3% [-7%]
 Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam 24% [32%] 26% [35%] 24% [31%] 23% [32%] 23% [32%] -- [--]

* This series of questions was conducted once every two months, different from the frequency of popularity ratings.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[ ] Vote of no confidence.

 

Results showed that, the proportions of respondents who would vote for the reappointment of Henry Tang and Elsie Leung were 61% and 31% respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, only Sarah Liao, Ambrose Lee, Stephen Ip and York Chow scored a reappointment rate of over 50%, at 65%, 65%, 56% and 54% correspondingly.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The popularity rating of Donald Tsang has dropped 1.1 marks since he became the Acting Chief Executive, but his support rate has remained high at 69%. This shows that the recent dispute over the interpretation of the Basic Law has only a nominal effect on Tsang's popularity at this stage. Regarding the popularity of the principal officials, compared to a month ago before CH Tung resigned, all officials have increased in popularity. Only 4 officials now have ratings below 50 marks, and amongst them, Elsie Leung and Stephen Lam, who are directly involved in the Basic Law dispute, have gained relatively less. All in all, in spite of the recent dispute over the interpretation of the Basic Law, all principal officials have benefited from the recent change of CE."

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. The date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be April 14, 2005, Thursday, at 2 pm, the latest popularity figures of the non-official members of the Executive Council will be released. Then, on April 19, 2005, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest results of people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems" will be released.

 

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.