HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and TaiwanBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest ratings of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan. As a general practice, our figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census and are now summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

Survey conducted in late March revealed that, among the ten most well-known political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan, in terms of popularity rating, Zhu Rongji has remained to be the most popular political figures, attaining 75.1 marks. Wen Jiabao and Hu Jintao followed behind, with 71.5 and 68.0 marks respectively. Jiang Zemin, who has stepped down from the chairmanship of the state Central Military Commission earlier this month, ranked 4th and scored 63.1 marks. Ma Ying-jeou and Lien Chan occupied the 5th and 6th ranks, attaining 59.0 and 48.5 marks. The 7th to 10th ranks fell to Li Peng, Lee Teng-hui, Lu Hsiu-lien and Chen Shui-bian correspondingly. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political figures was 67.3 marks, while that for the top 10 was 51.6 marks.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, made the following analysis: "Among the ten most well-known cross-strait political figures, there was an equal split in number between Mainland and Taiwan leaders. However, Mainland's Zhu Rongji and Wen Jiabao scored over 70 marks, while Taiwan's Chen Shui-bian and Lu Hsiu-lien scored less than 30. Polarization is pretty obvious. People love the two Premiers probably because they are humble and like to mix with people. They dislike the Taiwan President and Vice-President probably because they disagree with the independence of Taiwan. A point to note is that the ratings of all political figures generally dropped over the past 6 months. People are apparently not quite satisfied with recent developments in both sides of the Strait."

The research design of our "Top 10 political figures of Mainland China and Taiwan" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web site. The top political figures listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in mid-September. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Chen Shui-bian, Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, Ma Ying-jeou and Jiang Zemin, and so on were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political figures were then entered into the second stage of the survey conducted in late March, during which respondents were asked to rate each political figure in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political figures in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 political figures. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since June 1997.

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. Because next Tuesday is a public holiday, the date and time of our next release will be postponed to April 6, 2005, Wednesday, at 2 pm, results of a survey on people's appraisal of past Chinese leaders and ex-Chief Executive Tung Chee-Hwa will be released for the first time.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.