HKU POP SITE releases the latest findings of people's opinions towards Taiwan issuesBack


Press Release on March 15, 2005
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest findings of people's opinions towards Taiwan issues. Among them, the issue of Taiwan's rejoining the United Nations is released online for the first time, although POP has been tracking people's opinions regarding this issue since 1993. Findings were at first released via our newsletter "POP Express", and then gradually moved to our "POP Site". The figures released today are all post-handover findings. As a general practice, they have been weighted according to the census results. The latest figures of people's opinions towards Taiwan issues are summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 6-9/3/04 7-11/6/04 13-15/9/04 6-9/12/04 1-3/3/05 Latest change
 Sample base 1,030 1,027 1,023 1,007 1,019 --
 Overall response rate 65.0% 66.9% 64.4% 67.8% 63.1% --
 Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% --
 Taiwan independence: Opposition rate 71% 73% 75% 78% 78% --
 Taiwan independence: Support rate 12% 11% 12% 11% 12% +1%
 Confidence in cross-strait reunification 35% 40% 39% 42% 53% +11%
 No-confidence in cross-strait reunification 44% 41% 45% 43% 36% -7%
 Believed "one country, two systems" was applicable to TW 40% 37% 44% 45% 49% +4%
 Believed "one country, two systems" was not applicable to TW 35% 37% 36% 37% 37% --
 Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate 47% 52% 52% 58% 58% --
 Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate 27% 24% 27% 24% 26% +2%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

 

Results obtained in early March revealed that, 78% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas 12% showed support. Meanwhile, 53% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 36% expressed no confidence. As for the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan, 49% gave a positive view while 37 % gave a negative view. Besides, while 58% of the respondents opposed Taiwan rejoining the United Nations, 26% supported it. From a macro perspective, Hong Kong people's opposition to Taiwan's attempt to rejoin the United Nations has consistently been lower than their opposition to the independence of Taiwan (see half-yearly figures in the POP Site). This shows that although people oppose independence, they are more willing to accept Taiwan having its own role in the international community.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Over the past three months, there was not much change in Hong Kong people's opposition to the independence of Taiwan, and its attempt to rejoin the United Nations. The figures now stand at almost 80% and 60% respectively. There was, however, an 11-percentage-point leap in people's confidence in the ultimate reunification across the strait, probably due to the pan-blue camp's victory in the legislative elections in Taiwan, the operation of cross-strait direct charter flights, and the passing of the Anti-Secession Law in Beijing."

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. Since Financial Secretary Henry Tang will announce his second Budget tomorrow (March 16, Wednesday), we will release people's instant reactions towards the Budget the day after tomorrow (March 17, Thursday) at 2 pm. Then, on March 22, 2005, Tuesday, at 2 pm, we will release the latest results of people's satisfaction with the current social conditions, as well as their appraisal of the present Hong Kong economic, social and political conditions, by looking back and ahead. The latter will be released for the first time.

 

Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.