HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the most well-known political groupsBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest ratings of the most well-known political groups. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census. Ratings over the year past are summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

Findings obtained in mid-February showed that, the top 2 on the list of the most well-known political groups were Article 45 Concern Group (A45 Concern Gp) and Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), attaining 53.2 and 51.4 marks correspondingly. Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (CTU) and Liberal Party (LP) ranked 3rd and 4th, with support ratings of 49.8 and 48.6 marks respectively. Meanwhile, Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL) and Democratic Party (DP) ranked 5th and 6th, attaining 47.2 and 47.0 marks respectively. The 7th to 10th ranks fell to Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Frontier, Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China (HKASPDMC) and April Fifth Action (AFA), in respective order. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 50.0 marks.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The popularity of the most well-known political groups has not changed much in the past three months, but the picture would be different if we look at accumulative changes since the formation of the new Legco, in terms of ranking and rating. The popularity of DAB and FTU has increased significantly, that of DP has gone down badly, while Article 45 Concern Group has consistently topped the list, and April Fifth Action was always at the bottom. The situation seems to suggest that the political spectrum of the democrats has widened, while the popularity of the pro-China camp keeps rising, and Liberal Party plays steady in the middle ranks."

The research design of our "Most well-known political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted between February 14-16. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Party (DP), Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Liberal Party (LP), Frontier and Hong Kong Progressive Alliance (HKPA), which was merged with DAB on February 16, were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups were then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted between February 17-20, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. Finally, any group which failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate was also dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998.

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. The date and time of our next release will be March 10, 2005, Thursday, at 2 pm, the latest figures on the popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released. Then, on March 15, 2005, Tuesday, at 2 pm, people's opinions towards Taiwan issues and the independence of Tibet will be released. The issues of Taiwan's rejoining the United Nations^* would be released online for the first time.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

^* The release of survey findings on people's opinion on Tibetan independence as forecast by this release was subsequently postponed.