HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of Principal Officials under the accountability system and the general performance of non-official members of the Executive CouncilBack


Press Release on February 15, 2005
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity figures of Principal Officials under the accountability system and the general performance of non-official members of the Executive Council. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability system are summarized below:

 
 Date of survey 4-7/10/04 1-4/11/04 1-3/12/04 3-6/1/05 1-4/2/05 Latest change
 Sample base 1,016 1,018 1,004 1,022 1,019 --
 Overall response rate 62.4% 64.1% 65.7% 64.6% 61.5% --
 Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)* @ +/- 1.6 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.4 --
 CS Donald Tsang 61.6 62.8 60.7 61.2 60.9 -0.3
 FS Henry Tang 58.9 60.4 59.4 58.0 58.1 +0.1
 SJ Elsie Leung 47.4 50.1 49.9 49.7 47.8 -1.9
 Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao 61.0 60.0 59.6 59.3 60.9 +1.6
 Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee 61.0 59.5 60.7 58.9 60.7 +1.8
 Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow^ ** 55.5 57.5 57.9 57.6 -0.3
 Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip 56.5 56.0 56.2 55.8 57.1 +1.3
 Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li 52.0 53.5 53.0 52.3 53.2 +0.9
 Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang ** ** ** 52.3 53.1 +0.8
 Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho 50.6 51.3 51.3 50.4 51.3 +0.9
 Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma 48.8 50.1 48.5 48.9 48.7 -0.2
 Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong 49.4 50.5 50.5 49.0 48.4 -0.6
 Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen 46.2 48.8 42.8 44.5 45.4 +0.9
 Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam 44.0 46.9 45.5 45.0 44.7 -0.3
 Ex-Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong 48.7 N/A

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with less than 50% recognition rates are taken as not representative.
^ Since York Chow assumed office on 12 October 2004, the question in the survey from 4-7 October 2004 was as follows: "There are rumours that York Chow will be appointed as the new Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food. Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to him, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate him?"
@ Erratum: The error margins reported in the original release was mis-typed.

 

Survey conducted in early February showed that, the ratings of CS Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 60.9, 58.1 and 47.8 marks in respective orders. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the 1st and 2nd ranks fell to Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung and Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 60.9 and 60.7 marks correspondingly. Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok and Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan ranked 3rd and 4th, who scored 57.6 and 57.1 marks respectively. Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung and Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah followed behind, scoring 53.2 and 53.1 marks. The 7th to 9th ranks fell to Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang and Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping, who attained 51.3, 48.7 and 48.4 marks in respective orders. The 10th and 11th places fell to Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung, with popularity ratings of 45.4 and 44.7 marks respectively.

 

As for the popularity indicators based on the hypothetical vote share on the reappointment or dismissal of Principal Officials, support rates of Principal Officials are summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 1-3/6/04 2-8/8/04 4-7/10/04 1-3/12/04 1-4/2/05 Latest change
 Sample base 1,025 1,011 1,016 1,004 1,019 --
 Overall response rate 62.1% 59.4% 62.4% 65.7% 61.5% --
 Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)* +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% --
 CS Donald Tsang 59% [8%] 65% [5%] 67% [6%] 59% [9%] 64% [6%] +5% [-3%]
 FS Henry Tang 57% [6%] 62% [8%] 62% [8%] 63% [7%] 61% [8%] -2% [+1%]
 SJ Elsie Leung 26% [39%] 30% [34%] 27% [37%] 30% [34%] 30% [35%] -- [+1%]
 Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee 64% [4%] 69% [3%] 73% [3%] 68% [3%] 68% [3%] -- [--]
 Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao 67% [5%] 69% [6%] 72% [7%] 65% [9%] 68% [7%] +3% [-2%]
 Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Survey not started yet 55% [5%] 56% [5%] +1% [--]
 Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip 53% [8%] 57% [7%] 58% [8%] 53% [7%] 55% [6%] +2% [-1%]
 Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li 36% [28%] 36% [30%] 43% [27%] 45% [24%] 46% [23%] +1% [-1%]
 Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho 34% [24%] 39% [17%] 41% [24%] 40% [19%] 38% [21%] -2% [+2%]
 Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang 30% [7%] 26% [6%] 27% [7%] 28% [6%] 31% [10%] +3% [+4%]
 Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma 26% [33%] 31% [27%] 33% [28%] 28% [26%] 31% [22%] +3% [-4%]
 Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong 32% [22%] 33% [16%] 33% [20%] 32% [25%] 29% [23%] -3% [-2%]
 Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen 27% [41%] 29% [33%] 28% [36%] 22% [47%] 25% [40%] +3% [-7%]
 Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam 22% [34%] 24% [32%] 26% [35%] 24% [31%] 23% [32%] -1% [+1%]
 Ex-Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong 24% [47%] N/A

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[ ] Vote of no confidence.

 

Results showed that, the proportions of respondents who would vote for the reappointment of Donald Tsang, Henry Tang and Elsie Leung were 64%, 61% and 30% respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, only Ambrose Lee, Sarah Liao, York Chow and Stephen Ip scored a reappointment rate of over 50%, at 68%, 68%, 56% and 55% correspondingly. Regarding the people's approval rates of work performances of officials under the accountability system and non-official members of the Executive Council, they are summarized as follows**:

 
 Date of survey 1-5/8/03 2-4/2/04 2-8/8/04 1-4/2/05 Latest change
 Sample base 1,012 1,031 1,011 1,019 --
 Overall response rate 68.5% 63.5% 59.4% 61.5% --
 Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)* +/-3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% --
 CS Donald Tsang 53% [7%] 58%[6%] 50% [10%] 52% [8%] +2% [-2%]
 FS Henry Tang See end of table 31%[8%] 43% [10%] 45% [10%] +2% [--]
 SJ Elsie Leung 18% [34%] 18%[40%] 21% [40%] 23% [39%] +2% [-1%]
 Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao 50% [7%] 52%[6%] 57% [7%] 54% [8%] -3% [+1%]
 Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Survey not started yet 39%[3%] 52% [5%] 53% [4%] +1% [-1%]
 Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip 29% [11%] 33%[7%] 38% [10%] 39% [7%] +1% [-3%]
 Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Survey not started yet 38% [8%] -- [--]
 Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li 26% [20%] 24%[28%] 25% [37%] 32% [25%] +7% [-12%]
 Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho 21% [19%] 19%[25%] 25% [21%] 24% [24%] -1% [+3%]
 Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma 8% [42%] 12%[34%] 17% [30%] 19% [26%] +2% [-4%]
 Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Survey not started yet 7%[5%] 13% [6%] 18% [11%] +5% [+5%]
 Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong 15% [19%] 14%[18%] 18% [20%] 17% [26%] -1% [+6%]
 Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen 18% [25%] 18%[34%] 17% [38%] 16% [43%] -1% [+5%]
 Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam 10% [27%] 10%[29%] 14% [34%] 13% [32%] -1% [-2%]
 Ex-Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology Henry Tang 30% [8%] N/A
 Ex-Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong 16% [47%] 17%[49%] 27% [36%] N/A
 Non-official members of the Executive Council ^ 11% [33%] 15% [32%] 23% [27%] 22% [21%] -1% [-6%]

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The question used was "Do you think XXX is doing a good job as [his/her title]?"
[ ] Vote of no confidence.
^ In the survey from 1-5 August 2003, the non-official members of the Executive Council included Leung Chun-ying, Jasper Tsang, Cheng Yiu-tong and Liao Cheung-sing. In the survey from 2-4 February and 2-8 August 2004, Selina Chow was added. In the survey from 1-4 February 2005, the non-official members of the Executive Council included Leung Chun-ying, Jasper Tsang, Cheng Yiu-tong, Selina Chow, Liao Cheung-sing, Laura Cha and Bernard Chan.

 

The latest survey conducted in early February showed that, by using a 5-pt scale to measure approval rates, 52% and 45% of respondents thought Donald Tsang and Henry Tang were doing a good job respectively. However, 39% said Elsie Leung was doing a bad job. As for the Directors of Bureaux, 54% thought that Sarah Liao was doing a good job, followed in ranked order by Ambrose Lee, Stephen Ip, York Chow, Arthur Li, Patrick Ho, Frederick Ma, John Tsang, Joseph Wong, Michael Suen and Stephen Lam. Regarding the overall performance of non-official members of the Executive Council, 22% thought they were doing a good job while 21% thought they were doing a bad job.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Judging from the rating figures, the popularity of the principal officials has not changed much in the month past. Ambrose Lee and Sarah Liao's ratings increased significantly, as Elsie Leung's rating decreased significantly. Changes for the rest were not significant. For the support rates, as those who opted for the dismissal of Michael Suen dropped to 40%, all officials are now quite safe below the 50% danger line. As for the general performance of non-official members of the Executive Council, dissatisfaction rate has continued to drop, probably due to the more relaxed political atmosphere."

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be February 22, 2005, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest ratings of the top 10 Legislative Councillors and the people's appraisal of the professionalism of the local news media will be released.

 

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.