HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Tung Chee-hwa and findings of a Policy Address follow-up surveyBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity figures of CE Tung Chee-hwa and findings of a Policy Address follow-up survey, which also included the latest rating of the CE and people's satisfaction with his policy direction. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census. In the past many years, POP has conducted instant polls after the head of the government delivered his Policy Address, or after the Financial Secretary delivered his Budget Speech. Such instant polls, which measure people's instant reaction to the policies, would be followed weeks later by our follow-up surveys, which measure people's more matured reaction. We believe this is a better way to study public opinion on these issues. The Policy Address instant poll this year has already been released the next day after the release of the Policy Address, while the findings of the follow-up survey are released today. Recent figures on Tung's popularity are summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

Results of the follow-up survey in late January showed that, CE Tung Chee-hwa's rating was 46.1 marks. Meanwhile, 67% of the respondents did not support Tung as the CE, whereas 15% did. On the other hand, 39% were dissatisfied with Tung's policy direction, 19% were satisfied. In early February, Tung's rating was still 46.1 marks. While 67% did not support Tung as the CE, 13% did. By using a 5-point scale, 44% of the respondents thought Tung was doing a bad job as the CE, as contrast to 14% who held the opposite view. With respect to people's specific reactions towards the contents of this year's Policy Address, findings of the instant poll and follow-up survey are summarized below:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Excluding respondents who had not heard of the Policy Address.

The follow-up survey suggested that, two weeks after the announcement of the Policy Address, only 17% of the respondents were satisfied with the contents of the address, 23% were dissatisfied, while 37% said "half-half". Besides, 25% said their confidence in the future of Hong Kong had increased after the Policy Address, 17% said their confidence had dropped, whilst 47% opted for "no change". Findings also revealed that, although 70% of the respondents perceived the theme of this year's Policy Address "Working Together for Economic Development and Social Harmony" to be in line with the current needs of society, 71% viewed that the government would not be able to introduce measures to achieve its goal of implementing "people-based" governance in the coming year, whereas only 9% took a positive view. Besides, although Tung admitted the deficiencies in his governance, 49% said it could not alleviate people's dissatisfaction, 25% thought it could. On the other hand, among the 11 items listed by Tung as people's most concerned issues, employment topped the list, with 42% of the respondents mentioning it as their most concerned problem. Education, poverty and health care financing followed, with 13%, 11% and 10% showing their concern respectively. Finally, 72% of the respondents thought Tung needed to face the public directly after giving his Policy Address, 16% perceived no such need.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "There was almost no change in Tung Chee-hwa's popularity rating between late January and early February, it fluctuated between the narrow range of 46 to 48 marks. Those who opposed him as the CE remained constantly at two-thirds. Regarding people's receptiveness of the Policy Address, there was an obvious drop in people's enthusiasm, as more people said they were not happy. People were still quite satisfied with the theme of 'Working Together for Economic Development and Social Harmony', but almost half said Tung's confession of deficiencies could not alleviate people's dissatisfaction. More than 70% believed Tung could not achieve his target in the year ahead. These figures were generally much poorer than those registered in the instant poll."

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be February 15, 2005, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest popularity figures of Principal Officials under the accountability system and members of the Executive Council will be released.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.