HKU POP SITE releases findings of an instant poll on Policy AddressBack


Press Release on January 13, 2005
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) findings of an instant survey on people's reactions towards the Policy Address, including the latest rating of the CE, and people's satisfaction with his policy direction. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census. In the past many years, POP has conducted instant polls after the head of the government delivered his Policy Address, or after the Financial Secretary delivered his Budget Speech. Such instant polls, which measure people's instant reaction to the policies, would be followed weeks later by our follow-up surveys, which measure people's more matured reaction. We believe this is a better way to study public opinion on these issues. Recent figures on Tung's popularity are summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 15-17/11/04 1-3/12/04 18-23/12/04 3-6/1/05 12/1/05 Latest change
 Sample base 1,028 1,004 1,020 1,022 1,034 --
 Overall response rate 66.2% 65.7% 67.4% 64.6% 66.5% --
 Sampling error of rating (at 95% conf. level)* +/- 1.2 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.2 +/- 1.4 --
 Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% --
 Support rating of CH Tung 49.8 49.1 46.0 47.2 48.4 +1.2
 Vote of no confidence in CH Tung 57% 62% 68% 68% 65% -3%
 Vote of confidence in CH Tung 21% 22% 16% 16% 15% -1%
 Dissatisfaction rate of Tung's policy direction** -- -- 43% -- 38% -5%
 Satisfaction rate of Tung's policy direction** -- -- 17% -- 20% +3%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

 

The install poll conducted last night showed that, after CE Tung Chee-hwa announced his Policy Address, his latest rating registered was 48.4 marks. Meanwhile, 65% of the respondents did not support Tung as the Chief Executive, whereas 15% did. On the other hand, 38% were dissatisfied with Tung's policy direction, 20% were satisfied.

 

Regarding the popularity of the CE after delivering his Policy Address, Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our track record across the years shows that CE's popularity goes up every time he delivers a policy address, this year is no exception. According to our instant poll last night, his popularity rating picked up 1.2 marks compared to that registered a few days ago. It was 3.8 marks higher than that of last year, but was still below 50. Figures show that the number of people who were dissatisfied with Tung's policy direction and who opposed Tung as CE has decreased, but his supporters have not increased. Same as last year, the stabilizing effect of this year's Policy Address on CE's popularity is only nominal."

 

With respect to people's specific reactions towards the contents of this year's Policy Address, findings are summarized below:

 
 Date of survey 12/1/05
 Sample base 1,034
 Overall response rate 66.5%
 Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)* +/- 3%
 This year, the theme of CE's policy address is "Working Together for Economic Development and Social Harmony". Do you think this theme concurs with the current needs of society?
 Yes 77% Half-half 7% No 10% Don't know / Hard to say 6% Total 100%
 CE admitted the government's 'failure to establish the vision of "people-based" governance...were not sufficiently mindful of the impact of some policies on the community's capacity to bear and the potentially controversial nature of these policies...lacked a sense of crisis, political sensitivity as well as the necessary experience and capability to cope with political and economic changes, [and] were indecisive when dealing with emergencies.' Do you think what he said could help alleviate people's dissatisfaction?
 Yes 30% Half-half 13% No 45% Don't know / Hard to say 13% Total 100%
 CE said the government 'will spare no effort to implement "people-based" governance and take practical measures to mitigate antagonism between different strata, [will] seriously address the problem of poverty to break the cycle of inter-generational poverty, [and will] take good care of the disadvantaged.' Do you think he can achieve this goal in the coming year?
 Yes 11% Half-half 14% No 63% Don't know / Hard to say 12% Total 100%
 CE said the general public is most concerned about 11 issues, namely XXX. Which one of these issues concerns you most?
 Increasing employment 46%
 Helping the poor and needy 13%
 Developing education 12%
 Health care financing 7%
 Business environment 5%
 
 Date ofsurvey Sample base Overall response rate Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* Do you think CE should face the public directly after he announced his Policy Address?
Yes Half-half No
 12/1/05 1,034 66.5% +/- 3% 75% 5% 15%
 7/1/04 1,040 67.5% +/- 3% 76% 5% 13%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

 

The instant survey suggested that 77% of the respondents perceived the theme of this year's Policy Address "Working Together for Economic Development and Social Harmony" to be in line with the current needs of society, 10% thought the opposite. Besides, although Tung admitted the deficiencies in his governance, 45% said it could not alleviate people's dissatisfaction, 30% thought it could. While Tung said the government would introduce measures to implement "people-based" governance, 63% said the government would not be able to achieve it in the year ahead, 11% took a positive view. On the other hand, among the 11 items listed by Tung as people's most concerned issues, employment topped the list, with 46% of the respondents mentioning it as their most concerned problem. Poverty and education followed, with 13% and 12% showing their concern respectively. Meanwhile, health care financing and business environment scored 7% and 5% respectively. Finally, 75% of the respondents thought Tung needed to face the public directly after giving his Policy Address, 15% perceived no such need.

 

With respect to people's overall rating of the Policy Address, as well as the change of their confidence towards the future, the figures are summarized below:

 
 Date ofsurvey Sub-sample base# Overall response rate Sampling error of rating* Sampling error of %* Appraisal of Policy Address: Satisfaction rate** Appraisal of Policy Address: Half-half Appraisal ofPolicy Address: Dissatisfaction rate** Satisfaction rating of Policy Address
 12/1/05 391 66.5% +/- 2.4 +/- 5% 38% 30% 20% 56.3
 7/1/04 381 67.5% +/- 2.4 +/- 5% 25% 26% 33% 49.3
 8/1/03^ 377 67.3% +/- 2.6 +/- 5% 22% 29% 27% 51.6
 10/10/01 433 66.0% +/- 2.2 +/- 5% 29% 33% 27% 56.7
 11/10/00 262 69.7% +/- 2.8 +/- 6% 25% 28% 31% 55.2
 6/10/99 236 54.5% +/- 2.8 +/- 6% 31% 30% 25% 57.3
 7/10/98 508 56.5% -- +/- 4% 22% 35% 35% --
 8/10/97 534 62.9% -- +/- 4% 45% 30% 14% --
 
 Date of survey Sub-sample base# Overall response rate Sampling error of %* Effect of the Policy Address on one's confidence in HK's future
Increased Unchanged Decreased
 12/1/05 658 66.5% +/- 4% 34% 41% 12%
 7/1/04 602 67.5% +/- 4% 32% 40% 16%
 8/1/03^ 513 67.3% +/- 4% 25% 40% 22%
 10/10/01 591 66.0% +/- 4% 22% 50% 21%
 11/10/00 292 69.7% +/- 6% 22% 40% 15%
 6/10/99 233 54.5% +/- 6% 40% 36% 16%
 7/10/98 505 56.5% +/- 4% 21% 52% 22%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# Excluding respondents who said they would not answer because they had not heard of or did not know the content of the policy address. Because of the smaller sample size, the sampling error has increased accordingly.
^ The 2003 Policy Address instant poll was conducted for two days. Only figures registered in the first day of fieldwork are listed in this table for direct comparison and analysis. Aggregate results are available in our "HKU POP SITE".

 

Results showed that, among the respondents who had heard of the Policy Address, 38% were satisfied with it, 20% were dissatisfied, while the average rating registered for the Policy Address was 56.3 marks. Besides, excluding those who said they would not answer because they did not know the content of the policy address, 34% said their confidence in the future of Hong Kong had increased, 41% opted for "no change", whilst 12% said their confidence had dropped.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed again, "This year's Policy Address scored 56.3 marks, which is the highest among CE's second term addresses. Among respondents who had heard of the Policy Address, 38% said they were satisfied, which is also the highest figure in recent years. Regarding the theme of 'Working Together for Economic Development and Social Harmony', 77% believed it was in line with the current needs of the society. It thus seems that people are rather positive about this year's address. However, 45% of respondents said CE's admission of the mistakes he has made could not alleviate people's dissatisfaction, while 63% said they were not confident that CE could achieve his targets in the coming year. The problem lies seemingly not in the content of the Policy Address, but people's confidence in the CE himself. CE and the SAR Government had better continue to investigate their deficiencies and then take immediate remedial actions."

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be January 18, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest findings on the subjective freedom indicators will be released.

 

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors