HKU POP SITE releases the latest figures on the popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa, Principal Officials under the accountability system and members of the Executive CouncilBack


Press Release on January 11, 2005
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa, Principal Officials under the accountability system and members of the Executive Council. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population obtained from the 2001 Population Census. Recent figures on the popularity of Tung are summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 1-4/11/04 15-17/11/04 1-3/12/04 18-23/12/04 3-6/1/05 Latest change
 Sample base 1,018 1,028 1,004 1,020 1,022 --
 Overall response rate 64.1% 66.2% 65.7% 67.4% 64.6% --
 Sampling error of ratings (at 95% conf. level)* +/- 1.2 +/- 1.2 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.2 --
 Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% --
 Support rating of CH Tung 49.4 49.8 49.1 46.0 47.2 + 1.2
 Vote of no confidence in CH Tung 55% 57% 62% 68% 68% --
 Vote of confidence in CH Tung 22% 21% 22% 16% 16% --

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

 

Results of our survey conducted in early January revealed that the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa was 47.2 marks. Meanwhile, 68% of the respondents did not support Tung as the Chief Executive, whereas 16% did. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability system are summarized below:

 
 Date of survey 1-7/9/04 4-7/10/04 1-4/11/04 1-3/12/04 3-6/1/05 Latest Change
 Sample base 1,004 1,016 1,018 1,004 1,022 --
 Overall response rate 64.5% 62.4% 64.1% 65.7% 64.6% --
 Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)* @ +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.4 --
 CS Donald Tsang 61.9 61.6 62.8 60.7 61.2 +0.5
 FS Henry Tang 59.1 58.9 60.4 59.4 58.0 -1.4
 SJ Elsie Leung 48.9 47.4 50.1 49.9 49.7 -0.2
 Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao 59.4 61.0 60.0 59.6 59.3 -0.3
 Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee 58.2 61.0 59.5 60.7 58.9 -1.8
 Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow^ Survey not started yet ** 55.5 57.5 57.9 +0.4
 Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip 56.2 56.5 56.0 56.2 55.8 -0.4
 Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang ** ** ** ** 52.3 **
 Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li 48.8 52.0 53.5 53.0 52.3 -0.7
 Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho 49.8 50.6 51.3 51.3 50.4 -0.9
 Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong 49.2 49.4 50.5 50.5 49.0 -1.5
 Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma 48.9 48.8 50.1 48.5 48.9 +0.4
 Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam 44.6 44.0 46.9 45.5 45.0 -0.5
 Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen 46.7 46.2 48.8 42.8 44.5 +1.7
 Ex-Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong 48.6 48.7 N/A

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with less than 50% recognition rates are taken as not representative.
^ Since York Chow assumed office on October 12, the question in the survey from October 4-7was as follows: "There are rumours that York Chow will be appointed as the new Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food. Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to him, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate him?"
@ Erratum: The label of error margins in the original release was mis-typed

 

Survey conducted in early January showed that, the ratings of CS Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 61.2, 58.0 and 49.7 marks in respective orders. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the 1st and 2nd ranks fell to Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung and Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 59.3 and 58.9 marks correspondingly. Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok and Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan ranked 3rd and 4th, who scored 57.9 and 55.8 marks respectively. Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah and Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung followed behind, both scoring 52.3 marks. The 7th to 9th ranks fell to Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping, Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, who attained 50.4, 49.0 and 48.9 marks in respective orders. The 10th and 11th places fell to Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung and Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung, with popularity ratings of 45.0 and 44.5 marks respectively. Figures on the non-official members of the Executive Council are summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 2-4/7/03 1-5/8/03 1-2/10/03 2-4/1/04 1-3/4/04 2-5/7/04 4-7/10/04 3-6/1/05 Latest change
 Sample base 1,046 1,012 1,052 1,005 1,022 1,026 1,016 1,022 --
 Overall response rate 66.3% 68.5% 65.7% 67.5% 64.1% 63.0% 62.4% 64.6% --
 Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)* +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.4 --
 Non-official member Selina Chow Survey not started yet 55.8 56.5 55.3 54.4 56.1 55.8 -0.3
 Non-official member Cheng Yiu-tong 38.9 43.4 44.7 44.5 43.5 43.8 47.4 47.9 +0.5
 Non-official member Jasper Tsang 37.3 40.5 42.6 42.2 40.9 40.5 45.1 47.5 +2.4
 Non-official member Leung Chun-ying 40.8 44.7 44.5 43.4 41.2 39.9 43.3 45.5 +2.2
 Non-official member Liao Cheung-sing ** ** ** ** ** ** ** ** --
 Non-official member Bernard C Chan Survey not started yet ** --
 Non-official member Laura M Cha ** --
 Ex-non-official member James Tien 45.3 N/A
 Sit-in member Lau Siu-kai 44.1 48.7 48.5 48.7 46.5 45.3 48.8 50.1 +1.3
 Ex-sit-in member Lam Woon-kwong ^ 45.0 51.4 51.6 51.3 51.1 50.1 52.3 52.4 +0.1

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with less than 50% recognition rates are taken as not representative.
^ Since the survey was conducted before Lam Woon-kwong announced his resignation, its effect on his ratings is not yet known.

 

Regarding people's ratings of the non-official members of the Executive Council, Selina Chow scored 55.8 marks, and leading with quite a margin from the rest. The ratings of Cheng Yiu-tong, Jasper Tsang and Leung Chun-ying were 47.9, 47.5 and 45.5 marks correspondingly, while those of Liao Cheung-sing, Bernard C Chan and Laura M Cha were not taken as representative because of their less-than-50% recognition rates. As for the sit-in members, the Head of Central Policy Unit Lau Siu-kai scored 50.1 marks, while the Ex-Director of CE's Office Lam Woon-kwong scored 52.4 marks. Since the survey was conducted before Lam Woon-kwong announced his resignation, its effect on his ratings could not be revealed yet.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "There are ups and downs in the popularity of individual members of CE's cabinet. Most noticeably, Ambrose Lee dropped by 1.8 marks, Michael Suen rose by 1.7 marks, and Joseph Wong dropped by 1.5 marks. Lee's plunge was probably related to the government's performance in the tsunami rescue mission, Suen's rebound related to the resolution of the Hunghom Peninsula incident, and Wong's drop related to the discussion of civil servants taking up post-retirement jobs. Lam Woon-kwong, the ex-Director of CE's Office cum sit-in member of the Executive Council, has all along been more popular than many Directors of Bureaux and non-official members of the Executive Council. His sudden resignation should have a certain effect on the popularity of the entire cabinet."

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. Since CE Tung Chee-hwa will announce his eighth Policy Address tomorrow (January 12, Wednesday), we will release the latest popularity figures of CE Tung Chee-Hwa and people's instant reactions towards the Policy Address the day after tomorrow (January 13, Thursday) at 2 pm. Then, on January 18, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest findings on the subjective freedom indicators will be released.

 

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.