HKU POP SITE releases the latest figures on the popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa and HKSAR Government, and those of the 2004 year-end and 2005 forecast surveyBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest figures on the popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa, people's appraisal of the performance of the HKSAR Government, as well as the 2004 year-end and 2005 forecast survey. For the first two items, this is the last release this year, and half-yearly average figures of these surveys are available in our website, recent figures are summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

Results of our survey conducted in late December revealed that the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa was 46.0 marks. Meanwhile, 68% of the respondents did not support Tung as the Chief Executive, whereas 16% did. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 47% were dissatisfied, whereas 22% were satisfied.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Tung Chee-hwa's popularity rating plunged 3.1 marks within half a month, while people's dissatisfaction with the SAR Government went up by 9 percentage points in a month. This was probably due to the recent policy blunders and President Hu Jintao's public dressing-down. The pace at which these figures slipped, now at a level almost six months ago, indicates the fragility of CE and SARG's popularity. Nevertheless, if we look at the half-yearly figures, they are still on a slow but upward trend since the second half of 2003, only that the trend might have been broken by recent events. What will happen next depends very much on the coming policy address."

As for people's year-end review of 2004 and their forecast for 2005, the figures are summarized below, together with parallel figures obtained in recent years:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

Looking back to the whole year of 2004, 48% of the respondents said they were happy, 19% were not. As for Hong Kong's development in the year past, 38% said they were satisfied, 29% were dissatisfied. As regards the prospect for the coming year, 53% believed their personal development would become better, 8% thought they would become worse off. Meanwhile, 65% expected Hong Kong's development in general to become "better" next year, 9% said it would be worse.

Findings also suggested that, given the choice of a "prosperous", "free", "fair", "welfare", and "clean" society, 38% of the respondents would wish Hong Kong to become "a prosperous society", while 24% and 23% respectively opted for a "fair" and "free" society. Besides, 50% considered that "economy" to be the most important problem that the government should tackle next year, 12% thought "constitutional development" was the most pressing.

As for people's new year wishes, 27% were economic-related, 13% on personal health, and 12% on personal career or studies. Meanwhile, 8% wished for peace on earth, while 11% did not make any wish.

Robert Chung observed again, "Although people have many complaints against the government, the percentage of people who said they were happy in the year past has reached record high since the handover, and the percentage of people who were satisfied with Hong Kong's development in the year past was the highest since 1998. This means that many people felt that they had already gone through the worst time. People's expectation of the year to come, however, is less optimistic than a year ago with regard to Hong Kong's overall development, but is more or less the same as that a year ago in terms of their personal development, meaning that they have become more cautious on the whole."

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be January 4, 2005, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest results of people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems" will be released.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.