HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability systemBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity figures of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability system. Relevant figures are summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
@ Erratum: The label of error margins in the original release was mis-typed

Results of our survey conducted in early December revealed that the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa was 49.1 marks. Meanwhile, 62% of the respondents did not support Tung as the Chief Executive, whereas 22% did. Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability system are summarized below:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with less than 50% recognition rates are taken as not representative.
^ Since York Chow assumed office on October 12, the question in the survey from October 4-7 was as follows: "There are rumours that York Chow will be appointed as the new Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food. Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to him, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate him?"
@ Erratum: The label of error margins in the original release was mis-typed

Survey conducted in early December showed that, the ratings of CS Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 60.7, 59.4 and 49.9 marks in respective orders. As for the Directors of Bureaux, because it is POP's long established practice not to treat ratings of persons with less than 50% benchmark recognition rate as representative, the ratings of Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah cannot be meaningfully discussed in this survey, and have been listed separately in our summary rating table. Results revealed that the 1st and 2nd ranks fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong and Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung, attaining 60.7 and 59.6 marks. Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok and Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan ranked 3rd and 4th, who scored 57.5 and 56.2 marks respectively. The 5th and 7th ranks fell to Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung, Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping and Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping, who attained 53.0, 51.3 and 50.5 marks in respective orders. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang and Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung followed, attaining 48.5 and 45.5 marks correspondingly. Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung scored 42.8 marks.

As for the popularity indicators based on the hypothetical vote share on the reappointment or dismissal of Principal Officials, support rates of Principal Officials are summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[ ] Vote of no confidence.

Results showed that, the proportions of respondents who would vote for the reappointment of Henry Tang, Donald Tsang and Elsie Leung were 63%, 59% and 30% respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, only Ambrose Lee, Sarah Liao, York Chow and Stephen Ip scored a reappointment rate of over 50%, at 68%, 65%, 55% and 53% correspondingly. As the Ex-Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food, Yeoh Eng-kiong has resigned, his name was no longer included in this part of the survey.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "There are some subtle changes in the popularity of the government's core leadership. While Tung Chee-hwa's popularity rating continued to fluctuate between 48 and 50 marks, it has dropped 0.7 mark over the last two weeks, and those against him as Chief Executive has gone up by 5 percentage points. For the principal officials, Donald Tsang still managed to cling to the top of the popularity ladder, but that position has been shared by Ambrose Lee, both above Sarah Liao. Tsang's popularity rating has dropped 2.1 marks over a month, obviously affected by the West Kowloon controversy. Another official, Michael Suen, however, suffered a severe plunge of 6.0 marks and dropped to the bottom of the list, no doubt due to the Hunghom Peninsula incident. His credibility has dropped to a dangerous level, as 47% of the respondents asked for his dismissal. The SAR government should better prepare itself, at least mentally, for another governance crisis."

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be December 14, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest findings on people's satisfaction with the current social conditions and people's opinions towards Taiwan issues will be released.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.