HKU POP SITE releases ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack


Press Release on November 16, 2004
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the first round of ratings of the top 10 Legislative Councillors for this new session. Recent figures are summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 10-12/11/03 9-14/2/04 3-7/5/04 9-16/8/04 8-11/11/04 Latest change
 Sample base 1,062 1,008 1,013 1,019 1,000 --
 Overall response rate 63.4% 66.0% 61.5% 62.9% 64.5% --
 Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)* @ +/- 1.4 +/- 1.8 +/- 1.6 +/- 2.0 +/- 1.8 --
 Audrey Eu 58.1 [1] 66.2 [1] 58.0 [1] 65.5 [1] 66.7 [1] +1.2
 Rita Fan 56.2 [2] 61.4 [2] 54.5 [3] 61.2 [2] 65.7 [2] +4.5
 Chan Yuen-han ** ** ** ** 62.7 [3] --
 Selina Chow 53.9 [3] 59.0 [3] 55.2 [2] 58.2 [5] 60.3 [4] +2.1
 James Tien 53.0 [5] 55.8 [5] 53.2 [4] 59.9 [3] 57.9 [5] -2.0
 Emily Lau 45.1 [9] 49.7 [9] 45.5 [9] 50.7 [9] 54.7 [6] +4.0
 Albert Cheng Not an LC member then 54.3 [7] --
 Martin Lee 46.3 [8] 54.6 [6] 48.2 [8] 55.1 [7] 54.3 [7] -0.8
 Jasper Tsang 39.6 [10] 42.6 [10] 42.0 [10] 44.1 [10] 48.8 [9] +4.7
 Leung Kwok-hung Not an LC member then 41.1 [10] --
 James To ** ** 49.9 [6] ** ** --
 Lee Cheuk-yan 51.5 [6] 58.8 [4] 52.0 [5] 57.4 [6] ** --
 Szeto Wah 48.1 [7] 53.2 [7] 48.5 [7] 54.8 [8] N/A --
 Lau Chin-shek 53.6 [4] ** ** 59.0 [4] ** --
 Andrew Wong ** 49.9 [8] ** ** N/A --

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
@ Erratum: The label of error margins in the original release was mis-typed.

 

With respect to the latest popularity ranking of the Legislative Councillors for the new session, results showed that Audrey Eu remained to be the most popularly supported councillor, attaining 66.7 marks. Rita Fan ranked second with 65.7 marks. Chan Yuen-han and Selina Chow followed closely behind with respective scores of 62.7 and 60.3 marks. James Tien ranked 5th, scoring 57.9 marks. The subsequent ranks fell to Emily Lau, Albert Cheng, Martin Lee, Jasper Tsang and Leung Kwok-hung correspondingly. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 62.7 marks, while that for the top 10 was 56.7 marks.

 

The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in late October (October 18-21). In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. Leung Kwok-hung, Martin Lee, Albert Cheng, Rita Fan and Emily Lau were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in early November, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed: "The popularity structure of Legco members has changed significantly with the formation of the new Legco. New faces Leung Kwok-hung and Albert Cheng were recognized by a large number of respondents in our first stage of naming survey, but in our second stage of individual rating, they ranked only 7th and 10th. This shows that their stern supporters came from a relatively small group. In terms of popular support, Audrey Eu, Rita Fan, Chan Yuen-han and Selina Chow remained to be most popular, all being females, and with support ratings above 60 marks. Also to be noted is that a number of re-elected Legco members, especially Rita Fan, Emily Lau and Jasper Tsang, now have much higher ratings than before the election, and are apparently enjoying a good start."

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. The date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be November 18, 2004, Thursday, at 2 pm, the people's appraisal of the professionalism of the local news media will be released, while the latest popularity figures of CE Tung Chee-Hwa and HKSAR Government will be released on November 23, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm.

 

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.