HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Tung Chee-hwa, Principal Officials under the accountability system and members of the Executive CouncilBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa, Principal Officials under the accountability system and members of the Executive Council, as well as the public's initial receptiveness of the new Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok. Recent figures on the popularity of Tung are first summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Results of our survey conducted in early October revealed that the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa was 49.0 marks. Meanwhile, 63% of the respondents did not support Tung as the Chief Executive, whereas 22% did. Regarding Tung's popularity, Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, analyzed, "Tung Chee-hwa's popularity rating has dropped back again after reaching the benchmark of 50. Although the drop was within the range of the sampling error, the upward trend has apparently stopped, which calls for attention. Tung was recently criticized for the way he has handled the appointment of Principal Officials, his popularity might have been affected to a certain extent."

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability system and members of the Executive Council are summarized below:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with less than 50% recognition rates are taken as not representative.
^ York Chow assumes office on October 12 (today). Since he was not yet on board during the survey period, the question was modified as follows: "There are rumours that York Chow will be appointed as the new Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food. Please use a scale of 0-100 to rate your extent of support to him, with 0 indicating absolutely not supportive, 100 indicating absolutely supportive and 50 indicating half-half. How would you rate him?"
@ Erratum: The label of error margins in the original release was mis-typed.

Survey findings showed that, the ratings of CS Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 61.6, 58.9 and 47.4 marks in respective orders. As for the Directors of Bureaux, because it is POP's long established practice not to treat ratings of persons with less than 50% benchmark recognition rate as representative, the ratings of Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah and Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok cannot be meaningfully discussed in this survey, and have been listed separately in our summary rating table. Results revealed that the most popular officials were Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung and Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee, both attaining 61.0 marks. Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan ranked 3rd, who scored 56.5 marks. The 4th and 5th ranks fell to Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung and Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping, who attained 52.0 and 50.6 marks respectively. Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang followed, attaining 49.4 and 48.8 marks correspondingly. Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung scored 46.2 and 44.0 marks in respective orders. For ex-Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong, his latest rating registered was 48.7 marks.

Regarding people's ratings of the non-official members of the Executive Council, Selina Chow scored 56.1 marks, and leading with quite a margin from the rest. The ratings of Cheng Yiu-tong, Jasper Tsang and Leung Chun-ying were 47.4, 45.1 and 43.3 marks correspondingly, while that of Liao Cheung-sing was not taken as representative because of his less-than-50% recognition rate. As for the sit-in members, the Director of CE's Office Lam Woon-kwong and the Head of Central Policy Unit Lau Siu-kai scored 52.3 and 48.8 marks respectively.

As for the popularity indicators based on the hypothetical vote share on the reappointment or dismissal of Principal Officials, support rates of Principal Officials are summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[ ] Vote of no confidence.

Results showed that, the proportions of respondents who would vote for the reappointment of Donald Tsang, Henry Tang and Elsie Leung were 67%, 62% and 27% respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, only Ambrose Lee, Sarah Liao and Stephen Ip scored a reappointment rate of over 50%, at 73%, 72% and 58% correspondingly. As the Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food, Yeoh Eng-kiong has resigned, his name was no longer included in this part of the survey.

Concerning the popularity ratings of the Principal Officials and members of the Executive Council, Director of POP Robert Chung analyzed, "While there were ups and downs in popularity figures of different officials, those of Arthur Li and Ambrose Lee experienced the biggest increase. The latter even tied with Sarah Liao to become the most popular Directors of Bureaux. Former Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong maintained a stable score shortly before he stepped down. It was much higher than his record low of 39.4, but was still below 50. Regarding the Executive Council members, apart from Selina Chow, the popularity scores of other members remained low. Whether new members Bernard Chan and Laura Cha would boost the popularity of the Council or not remains to be seen."

CE Tung Chee-hwa recently appointed York Chow Dr York Chow Yat-ngok to succeed Yeoh Eng-kiong as Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food. Survey findings revealed that, 16% thought he was the ideal candidate for the this posting, whereas 5% thought he was not, 61% did not know him and another 18% had no idea whether he was the ideal candidate. Such figures, together with those of the Principal Officials before assuming their office, were summarized below:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[ ] Proportion of respondents who thought the concerned appointment was not ideal.

Regarding people's initial receptiveness of Dr York Chow Yat-ngok as the new Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food, Director of POP Robert Chung observed: "Our survey shows that in terms of people's awareness at the initial stage, people just do not quite know York Chow, just like John Tsang and Patick Ho when they first took office. This is probably due to the short notice of Chow's appointment, and thus little media exposure. Since the principal officials are said to be 'accountable' to the general public, it is not enough for them just to do a good job, they should also be seen as having done a good job."

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be October 19, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest results of people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems" will be released.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.