HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and TaiwanBack


Press Release on October 5, 2004
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest ratings of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan. Recent figures are summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 17-19/3/03 15-17/9/03 22-24/3/04 20-21/9/04 Latest change
 Sample base 1,068 1,030 1,015 1,051 --
 Overall response rate 71.5% 70.1% 67.8% 62.7% --
 Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* +/- 1.8 +/- 1.8 +/- 1.8 +/- 1.8 --
 Zhu Rongji 79.2 [1] 75.0 [1] 74.9 [1] 75.4 [1] +0.5
 Wen Jiabao ** 70.8 [2] 70.6 [3] 74.4 [2] +3.8
 Hu Jintao　 ** 67.3 [4] 71.0 [2] 71.9 [3] +0.9
 Jiang Zemin 66.4 [2] 65.7 [5] 63.4 [5] 66.7 [4] +3.3
 Ma Ying-jeou 65.8 [3] 61.0 [6] 65.9 [4] 64.6 [5] -1.3
 Lien Chan 49.5 [6] ** 54.5 [6] 50.3 [6] -4.2
 Li Peng 46.8 [7] 43.4 [8] 40.0 [7] 46.7 [7] +6.7
 Lee Teng-hui 36.1 [10] 29.1 [10] 33.5 [8] 30.9 [8] -2.6
 Lu Hsiu-lien 36.5 [9] ** 29.9 [10] 30.4 [9] +0.5
 Chen Shui-bian 39.3 [8] 35.5 [9] 31.0 [9] 30.3 [10] -0.7
 Wu Yi ** 69.8 [3] ** ** --
 James Soong 53.8 [5] 53.3 [7] ** ** --
 Qian Qichen 63.1 [4] ** ** ** --

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

 

Survey conducted in late September revealed that, regarding the latest popularity ranking of political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan, Zhu Rongji and Wen Jiabao occupied the 1st and 2nd ranks, attaining 75.4 and 74.4 marks respectively. Hu Jintao followed behind scoring 71.9 marks. Jiang Zemin, who has just stepped down from the chairmanship of the Central Military Commission, and Ma Ying-jeou ranked 4th and 5th, scoring 66.7 and 64.6 marks. The 6th to 10th ranks fell to Lien Chan, Li Peng, Lee Teng-hui, Lu Hsiu-lien and Chen Shui-bian correspondingly. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political figures was 70.6 marks, while that for the top 10 was 54.2 marks.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, made the following analysis: "Our latest round of survey on cross-strait political figures was conducted shortly after Jiang Zemin stepped down from the chairmanship of the Central Military Commission. This might well explain why he scored 3.3 marks more than 6 months ago, and went up by one position in the ladder. However, ex-Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji has remained to be Hong Kong people's favourite, followed by Premier Wen Jiabao and President Hu Jintao. All three are more popular than Jiang by one to two grades. At the other end, Chen Shui-bian, Lu Hsiu-lien and Lee Teng-hui are still at the bottom with near record low scores, probably reflecting people's disagreement with the independence of Taiwan. Viewed from another angle, the fact that the list of top 10 well known political figures across the strait was equally split between Mainland and Taiwan leaders, can be seen as another form of balance."

 

The research design of our "Top 10 political figures of Mainland China and Taiwan" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web site. The top political figures listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in mid-September. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Chen Shui-bian, Hu Jintao, Jiang Zemin, Wen Jiabao, Ma Ying-jeou and so on were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political figures were then entered into the second stage of the survey conducted in late September, during which respondents were asked to rate each political figure in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political figures in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 political figures. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since June 1997.

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to our schedule, the date and time of our next release will be October 12, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest popularity figures of CE Tung Chee-Hwa, Principal Officials under the accountability system and members of the Executive Council will be released.

 

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.