HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability systemBack


Press Release on September 16, 2004
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability system. Recent figures on the popularity of Tung are summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 2-5/7 26-29/7 2-8/8 21-28/8 1-7/9 Latest change
 Sample base 1,026 1,005 1,011 1,033 1,004 --
 Overall response rate 63.0% 60.6% 59.4% 65.4% 64.5% --
 Sampling error of ratings (at 95% conf. level)* +/- 1.4 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.4 +/- 1.4 --
 Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% --
 Support rating of CH Tung 44.4 48.3 46.7 47.9 48.3 +0.4
 Vote of no confidence in CH Tung 66% 62% 59% 60% 59% -1%
 Vote of confidence in CH Tung 16% 20% 21% 19% 23% +4%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

 

Results of our survey conducted in early September during the Legislative Council election revealed that the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa was 48.3 marks. Meanwhile, 59% of the respondents did not support Tung as the Chief Executive, whereas 23% did. Figures on the popularity ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability system are summarized below:

 
 Date of survey 3-7/5 1-3/6 2-5/7/04 2-8/8 1-7/9 Latest change
 Sample base 1,013 1,025 1,026 1,011 1,004 --
 Overall response rate 61.5% 62.1% 63.0% 59.4% 64.5% --
 Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)* +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 --
 CS Donald Tsang 56.6 58.1 59.1 61.5 61.9 +0.4
 FS Henry Tang 56.5 56.3 56.5 58.4 59.1 +0.7
 SJ Elsie Leung 45.0 44.3 46.5 47.5 48.9 +1.4
 Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao 58.8 59.4 58.9 61.3 59.4 -1.9
 Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee 57.2 58.1 56.4 60.9 58.2 -2.7
 Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip 54.1 54.4 55.3 57.7 56.2 -1.5
 Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho 46.3 47.3 48.1 51.1 49.8 -1.3
 Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong 46.2 47.9 46.6 49.7 49.2 -0.5
 Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma 45.9 44.3 45.8 47.7 48.9 +1.2
 Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li 48.7 48.1 46.9 49.5 48.8 -0.7
 Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong 43.1 42.2 42.5 47.9 48.6 +0.7
 Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen 42.1 42.9 43.9 46.1 46.7 +0.6
 Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam 41.0 40.7 42.5 44.4 44.6 +0.2
 Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang ** 51.7 ** ** ** --

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with less than 50% recognition rates are taken as not representative.

 

Survey conducted in early September showed that, the ratings of CS Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 61.9, 59.1 and 48.9 marks in respective orders. As for the Directors of Bureaux, because it is POP's long established practice not to treat ratings of persons with less than 50% benchmark recognition rate as representative, the rating of Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah cannot be meaningfully discussed in this survey, and has been listed separately in our summary rating table. Results revealed that the most popular official remained to be Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung, who scored 59.4 marks. Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong and Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan ranked 2nd and 3rd, with popularity ratings of 58.2 and 56.2 marks respectively. The 4th and 5th ranks fell to Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping and Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping, attaining 49.8 and 49.2 marks. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung and Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong followed behind, scoring 48.9, 48.8 and 48.6 marks correspondingly. The scores attained by Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung were 46.7 and 44.6 marks respectively.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed: "Our survey conducted during the LegCo election shows that Tung Chee-hwa's popularity has continued, but apparently slowed down, its upward trend since mid-May. The popularity ratings of the principal officials have fluctuated case-by-case. Those of Secretaries of Departments have generally gone up, while most of Directors of Bureaux have gone down. Relative rankings within the two groups, however, have not changed much."

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be September 21, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest findings on people's satisfaction with the current social conditions and people's opinions towards Taiwan issues will be released.

 

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.