HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the most well-known political groupsBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest ratings of the most well-known political groups. Ratings over the year past are summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[ ]Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
** Ratings with recognition rates below 50% are not available.

Findings obtained before the Legislative Council Election in late August showed that, the top 3 on the list of the most well-known political groups were Article 45 Concern Group (A45 Concern Gp), Democratic Party (DP) and Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (CTU), attaining 51.8, 51.2 and 51.1 marks correspondingly. Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU), Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL) and Liberal Party (LP) ranked 4th to 6th, with support ratings of 49.6, 48.6 and 48.3 marks respectively. The 7th to 10th ranks fell to Frontier, Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China (HKASPDMC), Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB) and April Fifth Action (AFA), in respective order. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 50.5 marks.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our survey shows that the Article 45 Concern Group has topped the list for two consecutive times, before the Legislative Council election, which may well explain the Group's success in the election. Across the last 5 surveys, CTU ranked second with its average ranking of 1.8. Next come DP, FTU and LP, they were on the list for all 5 times, and have average rankings of 3.0, 3.2 and 4.2 correspondingly. It should also be noted that DAB and April Fifth Action were also on the list all 5 times, but with respective rankings of 8.2 and 9.2. Whether they can come up from these backward positions after their success in the recent election or not, is something we should all watch out for."

The research design of our "Most well-known political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted between August 9-16. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Party (DP), Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Liberal Party (LP), Frontier and Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups were then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted between August 21-28, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. Finally, any group which failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate was also dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998.

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. The date and time of our next release will be September 16, 2004, Thursday, at 2 pm, the latest figures on the popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released. Then, on September 21, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, we will release the latest findings on people's satisfaction with the current social conditions and people's opinions towards Taiwan issues.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.