HKU POP SITE releases the Latest Ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest and also last round of ratings of the top 10 Legislative Councillors for the current session. Recent figures are summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
@ Erratum: The label of error margins in the original release was mis-typed.

With respect to the latest popularity ranking of the Legislative Councillors, results showed that Audrey Eu remained to be the most popularly supported councillor, attaining 65.5 marks. Rita Fan ranked second with 61.2 marks. James Tien and Lau Chin-shek came third and fourth with respective scores of 59.9 and 59.0 marks. Selina Chow and Lee Cheuk-yan ranked 5th and 6th, scoring 58.2 and 57.4 marks respectively. The subsequent ranks fell to Martin Lee, Szeto Wah, Emily Lau and Jasper Tsang correspondingly. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 60.8 marks, while that for the top 10 was 56.6 marks.

The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in late July (July 26-29). In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. Martin Lee, Szeto Wah, Emily Lau, Rita Fan and Yeung Sum were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in mid-August, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, analyzed: "Because this is the last round of rating exercise for incumbent Legislative Councillors, and because fluctuations in popularity ratings may have been affected both by the political environment and methodological factors, we would like to highlight the average rankings of different councillors. Across the 4 rating surveys conducted in the past 12 months, Audrey Eu obtained an average rank of 1.0, Rita Fan 2.3, Selina Chow 3.3, James Tien 4.3, and Lee Cheuk-yan 5.3, they can be regarded as Class One most popular Legislative Councillors. Martin Lee, Szeto Wah, Emily Lau and Jasper Tsang also appeared on the list every time, and can be regarded as Class Two most well-known Legislative Councillors. Lau Chin-shek, James To and Andrew Wong appeared on the list for some but not all of the times, and can be regarded as Class Three relatively well-known Legislative Councillors. Since the term of incumbent Legislative Councillors is coming to an end, people are welcome to group the findings of our 16 surveys together, and conduct their own analyses and judgment, based on their number of times among the top 10, their average ratings, as well as average rankings."

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. From August 11 onwards, we will release the latest results of the Legislative Council election rolling survey every day at 2 pm via our POP site, until the election ends. Results of our regular surveys will still be released during this period of time. The date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be August 24, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the people's appraisal of the professionalism of the local news media will be released.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.