HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity of Principal Officials under the accountability systemBack


Press Release on August 12, 2004
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity of Principal Officials under the accountability system. Recent figures are summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 1-3/4 3-7/5 1-3/6 2-5/7/04 2-8/8 Latest change
 Sample base 1,022 1,013 1,025 1,026 1,011 --
 Overall response rate 64.1% 61.5% 62.1% 63.0% 59.4% --
 Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)* +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 +/- 1.6 --
 CS Donald Tsang 61.1 56.6 58.1 59.1 61.5 +2.4
 FS Henry Tang 58.2 56.5 56.3 56.5 58.4 +1.9
 SJ Elsie Leung 44.5 45.0 44.3 46.5 47.5 +1.0
 Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao 59.8 58.8 59.4 58.9 61.3 +2.4
 Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee 58.3 57.2 58.1 56.4 60.9 +4.5
 Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip 55.9 54.1 54.4 55.3 57.7 +2.4
 Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho 48.0 46.3 47.3 48.1 51.1 +3.0
 Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong 49.1 46.2 47.9 46.6 49.7 +3.1
 Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li 48.2 48.7 48.1 46.9 49.5 +2.6
 Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong 41.4 43.1 42.2 42.5 47.9 +5.4
 Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma 45.5 45.9 44.3 45.8 47.7 +1.9
 Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen 41.5 42.1 42.9 43.9 46.1 +2.2
 Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam 40.8 41.0 40.7 42.5 44.4 +1.9
 Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang ** ** 51.7 ** ** --

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with less than 50% recognition rates are taken as not representative.

 

Survey conducted in early August showed that, the ratings of CS Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 61.5, 58.4 and 47.5 marks in respective orders. As for the Directors of Bureaux, because it is POP's long established practice not to treat ratings of persons with less than 50% benchmark recognition rate as representative, the rating of Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah cannot be meaningfully discussed in this survey, and has been listed separately in our summary rating table. Results revealed that the popularity ratings attained by Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung and Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong were very close, who scored 61.3 and 60.9 marks respectively. Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan ranked 3rd, attaining 57.7 marks. The 4th to 6th ranks fell to Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping, Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping and Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung, with popularity ratings of 51.1, 49.7 and 49.5 marks correspondingly. Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang and Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung followed behind, scoring 47.9, 47.7 and 46.1 marks in respective orders. Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung scored only 44.4 marks, which was the lowest among the 10 Directors of Bureaux.

 

As for the popularity indicators based on the hypothetical vote share on the reappointment or dismissal of Principal Officials, support rates since December last year are summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 1-7/12/03 2-4/2/04 1-3/4/04 1-3/6 2-8/8 Latest change
 Sample base 1,008 1,031 1,022 1,025 1,011 --
 Overall response rate 62.9% 63.5% 64.1% 62.1% 59.4% --
 Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)* +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% +/- 3% --
 CS Donald Tsang 71%[6%] 72%[4%] 65% [5%] 59% [8%] 65% [5%] +6% [-3%]
 FS Henry Tang 47%[11%] 53%[6%] 59%[6%] 57% [6%] 62% [8%] +5%[+2%]
 SJ Elsie Leung 24%[40%] 25%[37%] 22%[41%] 26% [39%] 30% [34%] +4% [-5%]
 Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee 62%[3%] 60%[2%] 63%[4%] 64% [4%] 69% [3%] +5% [-1%]
 Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao 67%[6%] 67%[5%] 72%[4%] 67% [5%] 69% [6%] +2%[+1%]
 Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip 55%[7%] 52%[6%] 56%[7%] 53% [8%] 57% [7%] +4% [-1%]
 Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho 26%[34%] 32%[22%] 34%[23%] 34% [24%] 39% [17%] +5% [-7%]
 Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li 37%[28%] 35%[26%] 35%[31%] 36% [28%] 36% [30%] -- [+2%]
 Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong 30%[22%] 26%[17%] 30%[18%] 32% [22%] 33% [16%] +1% [-6%]
 Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma 19%[41%] 22%[32%] 27%[31%] 26% [33%] 31% [27%] +5% [-6%]
 Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen 32%[30%] 27%[28%] 21%[46%] 27% [41%] 29% [33%] +2% [-8%]
 Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang 24%[6%] 19%[5%] 26%[6%] 30% [7%] 26% [6%] -4% [-1%]
 Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam 21%[30%] 19%[29%] 19%[36%] 22% [34%] 24% [32%] +2% [-2%]
 Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong 27%[40%] 25%[47%] 21%[53%] 24% [47%] Not applicable

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[ ] Vote of no confidence.

 

Results showed that, the proportions of respondents who would vote for the reappointment of Donald Tsang, Henry Tang and Elsie Leung were 65%, 62% and 30% respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, only Ambrose Lee, Sarah Liao and Stephen Ip scored a reappointment rate of over 50%, at 69%, 69% and 57% correspondingly. As the Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food, Yeoh Eng-kiong has already announced his resignation, his name was no longer included in this part of the survey.

 

People's approval rates of various officials are as follows**:

 
 Date of survey 4-5/8/03 1-5/8/03 2-4/2/04 2-8/8 Latest change
 Sample base 664 1,012 1,031 1,011 ---
 Overall response rate 68.5% 68.5% 63.5% 59.4% ---
 Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)* +/-4% +/-3% +/- 3% +/- 3% ---
 CS Donald Tsang 52% [7%] 53% [7%] 58%[6%] 50% [10%] -8% [+4%]
 FS Henry Tang See end of table 31%[8%] 43% [10%] +12%[+2%]
 SJ Elsie Leung 18% [33%] 18% [34%] 18%[40%] 21% [40%] +3% [--]
 Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao 52% [7%] 50% [7%] 52%[6%] 57% [7%] +5% [+1%]
 Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Survey not started yet 39%[3%] 52% [5%] +13%[+2%]
 Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip 29% [10%] 29% [11%] 33%[7%] 38% [10%] +5% [+3%]
 Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong 16% [45%] 16% [47%] 17%[49%] 27% [36%] +10% [-13%]
 Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho 22% [18%] 21% [19%] 19%[25%] 25% [21%] +6% [-4%]
 Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li 27% [20%] 26% [20%] 24%[28%] 25% [37%] +1% [+9%]
 Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong 15% [17%] 15% [19%] 14%[18%] 18% [20%] +4% [+2%]
 Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma 9% [41%] 8% [42%] 12%[34%] 17% [30%] +5% [-4%]
 Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen 19% [25%] 18% [25%] 18%[34%] 17% [38%] -1% [+4%]
 Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam 10% [27%] 10% [27%] 10%[29%] 14% [34%] +4% [+5%]
 Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Survey not started yet 7%[5%] 13% [6%] +6% [+1%]

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The question used was "Do you think XXX is doing a good job as [his/her title]?"
[ ] Vote of no confidence.

 

Results showed that, by use of a 5-pt scale, 50% and 43% respectively thought Donald Tsang and Henry Tang were doing a good job, however, 40% said Elsie Leung was doing a bad job. As for the approval rates of Directors of Bureaux, 57% thought that Sarah Liao was doing a good job, followed by Ambrose Lee, Stephen Ip, Yeoh Eng-kiong, Patrick Ho, Arthur Li, Joseph Wong, Frederick Ma, Michael Suen, Stephen Lam and John Tsang in respective order.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed: "The popularity rating of all principal officials has surged, probably because of the more relaxed political atmosphere recently. Other than John Tsang whose rating is not taken as representative, and Stephen Lam whose score is still low, the ratings of all officials have gone beyond the 45-mark credibility crisis level. Yeoh Eng-kiong registered the biggest increase, meaning that people's anger at him has subsided after he announced his resignation."

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. From August 11 onwards, we will release the latest results of the Legislative Council election rolling survey every day at 2 pm via our POP site, until the election ends. Results of our regular surveys will still be released during this period of time. The date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be August 17, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest ratings of the top 10 Legislative Councillors will be released.

 

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.