HKU POP SITE releases the latest survey on Taiwan issuesBack
| Press Release on June 15, 2004 |
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The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest results of people's opinions towards Taiwan issues. Amongst them, "the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan" is included in our regular press release for the first time, although the findings have been uploaded onto the POP Site quite some time ago. Recent figures for various items are summarized as follows: |
| First half of 2003 | 8-10/9/03 | 10-14/12/03 | 6-9/3/04 | 7-11/6/04 | Latest change | |
| Sample base | 2,111 | 1,021 | 1,059 | 1,030 | 1,027 | -- |
| Overall response rate | 69.8%^ | 70.9% | 63.5% | 65.0% | 66.9% | -- |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* | +/- 3%^^ | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | -- |
| Taiwan independence: Opposition rate | 69% | 65% | 74% | 71% | 73% | +2% |
| Taiwan independence: Support rate | 14% | 17% | 11% | 12% | 11% | -1% |
| No-confidence in cross-strait reunification | 35% | 48% | 36% | 44% | 41% | -3% |
| Confidence in cross-strait reunification | 48% | 30% | 46% | 35% | 40% | +5% |
| Considered "one country, two systems" applicable to Taiwan | 45% | 38% | 46% | 40% | 37% | -3% |
| Considered "one country, two systems" not applicable to Taiwan | 34% | 38% | 32% | 35% | 37% | +2% |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. |
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Results obtained in early June revealed that, 73% of the Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas 11% showed support. Meanwhile, 41% were not confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 40% expressed confidence. As for the applicability of "one country, two systems" to Taiwan, opinion split with positive and negative views sharing the same percentage of 37%. |
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Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, made the following analysis: "Hong Kong people have consistently objected to the independence of Taiwan, the figure has slightly increased after the March 20 presidential election. Probably due to the relatively mild inaugural speech delivered by Chen Shui-bian, Hong Kong people's confidence in the final reunification across the strait has rebounded significantly. However, due to the recent decline in people's confidence in 'one country, two systems', the percentage of people who considered 'one country, two systems' to be applicable to Taiwan has dropped to a record low since August 1997." |
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POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. Because next Tuesday is a public holiday, the date and time of our next release will be shifted to June 21, 2004, Monday, at 2 pm, the findings on people's satisfaction with the current social conditions and their ethnic identity will be released. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors. |
