HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity of CE and Principal OfficialsBack

Press Release on June 8, 2004

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability system. Recent figures on the popularity of Tung are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	1-3/4	19-22/4	3-7/5	18-20/5	1-3/6	Latest change
Sample base	1,022	1,029	1,013	1,039	1,025	--
Overall response rate	64.1%	61.1%	61.5%	62.3%	62.1%	--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% conf. level)*	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.4	--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	--
Support rating of CH Tung	43.0	44.2	42.7	42.0	43.9	+1.9
Vote of no confidence in CH Tung	67%	66%	64%	65%	64%	-1%
Vote of confidence in CH Tung	15%	16%	18%	16%	19%	+3%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Results obtained in early June showed that, the rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa was 43.9 marks. Meanwhile, 64% of the respondents did not support Tung as the Chief Executive, whereas 19% did. Figures on the popularity ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	1-3/3	22-24/3	1-3/4	3-7/5	1-3/6	Latest change
Sample base	1,031	1,015	1,022	1,013	1,025	--
Overall response rate	63.7%	67.8%	64.1%	61.5%	62.1%	--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% conf. level)*	+/- 1.4	+/- 0.8	+/- 1.6	+/- 1.6	+/- 1.6	--
CS Donald Tsang	62.9	65.8	61.1	56.6	58.1	+1.5
FS Henry Tang	57.4	59.9	58.2	56.5	56.3	-0.2
SJ Elsie Leung	48.1	--	44.5	45.0	44.3	-0.7
Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao	59.8	--	59.8	58.8	59.4	+0.6
Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	57.4	--	58.3	57.2	58.1	+0.9
Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip	54.8	--	55.9	54.1	54.4	+0.3
Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang	**	--	**	**	51.7	--
Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li	50.9	--	48.2	48.7	48.1	-0.6
Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong	48.1	--	49.1	46.2	47.9	+1.7
Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho	48.2	--	48.0	46.3	47.3	+1.0
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma	46.4	--	45.5	45.9	44.3	-1.6
Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen	45.2	--	41.5	42.1	42.9	+0.8
Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong	43.3	--	41.4	43.1	42.2	-0.9
Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam	45.0	--	40.8	41.0	40.7	-0.3

Findings showed that, the ratings of CS Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 58.1, 56.3 and 44.3 marks in respective orders. As for the Directors of Bureaux, the most popular official remained to be Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung, scoring 59.4 marks. Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan and Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah ranked 2nd to 4th, with popularity ratings of 58.1, 54.4 and 51.7 marks respectively. The 5th to 7th ranks fell to Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung, Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping and Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping, attaining 48.1, 47.9 and 47.3 marks correspondingly. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung, Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong and Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung followed behind, scoring 44.3, 42.9, 42.2 and 40.7 marks in respective orders.

As for the popularity indicators based on the hypothetical vote share on the reappointment or dismissal of Principal Officials, support rates since September last year are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	1-3/9/03	1-7/12/03	2-4/2/04	1-3/4/04	1-3/6	Latest change
Sample base	1,059	1,008	1,031	1,022	1,025	--
Overall response rate	69.3%	62.9%	63.5%	64.1%	62.1%	--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	--
CS Donald Tsang	71%[3%]	71%[6%]	72%[4%]	65% [5%]	59% [8%]	-6% [+3%]
FS Henry Tang	50%[3%]	47%[11%]	53%[6%]	59%[6%]	57% [6%]	-2% [--]
SJ Elsie Leung	29%[35%]	24%[40%]	25%[37%]	22%[41%]	26% [39%]	+4% [-2%]
Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao	70%[5%]	67%[6%]	67%[5%]	72%[4%]	67% [5%]	-5% [+1%]
Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	52%[2%]	62%[3%]	60%[2%]	63%[4%]	64% [4%]	+1% [--]
Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip	56%[8%]	55%[7%]	52%[6%]	56%[7%]	53% [8%]	-3% [+1%]
Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li	45%[19%]	37%[28%]	35%[26%]	35%[31%]	36% [28%]	+1% [-3%]
Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho	39%[16%]	26%[34%]	32%[22%]	34%[23%]	34% [24%]	-- [+1%]
Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong	35%[17%]	30%[22%]	26%[17%]	30%[18%]	32% [22%]	+2%[+4%]
Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang	19%[3%]	24%[6%]	19%[5%]	26%[6%]	30% [7%]	+4%[+1%]
Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen	35%[23%]	32%[30%]	27%[28%]	21%[46%]	27% [41%]	+6% [-5%]
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma	21%[40%]	19%[41%]	22%[32%]	27%[31%]	26% [33%]	-1% [+2%]
Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong	29%[42%]	27%[40%]	25%[47%]	21%[53%]	24% [47%]	+3% [-6%]
Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam	19%[29%]	21%[30%]	19%[29%]	19%[36%]	22% [34%]	+3% [-2%]

Results showed that, the proportions of respondents who would vote for the reappointment of Donald Tsang, Henry Tang and Elsie Leung were 59%, 57% and 26% respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, only Sarah Liao, Ambrose Lee and Stephen Ip scored a reappointment rate of over 50%, at 67%, 64% and 53% correspondingly.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, analyzed: "Our latest survey shows that the popularity of the Chief Executive has rebounded somewhat in early June, even though it is still at a very low level. Reasons probably include his relatively high profile lately in reasserting the freedom of speech, and the fading away of NPC's decisions regarding universal suffrage. Similarly, the popularity of CS Donald Tsang has also rebounded, but is still lower than that before NPC's interpretation. As for the Directors of Bureaux, Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang appears on the list for the first time, at the 4th position. Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam, Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong, and Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen are still at the bottom, much like last time."

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be June 15, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest results of people's opinions towards Taiwan issues will be released.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.