HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity of CE, Principal Officials under the accountability system and Legislative CouncillorsBack

Press Release on May 11, 2004

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity of CE Tung Chee-Hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability system. Besides, the latest ratings of the top 10 Legislative Councillors are also released. Recent figures on the popularity of Tung are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	10/3	22-24/3	1-3/4	19-22/4	3-7/5	Latest change
Sample base	1,023	1,015	1,022	1,029	1,013	--
Overall response rate	64.7%	67.8%	64.1%	61.1%	61.5%	--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% conf. level)*	+/- 1.2	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.4	--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	--
Support rating of CH Tung	45.0	46.2	43.0	44.2	42.7	-1.5
Vote of no confidence in CH Tung	68%	63%	67%	66%	64%	-2%
Vote of confidence in CH Tung	13%	18%	15%	16%	18%	+2%

Results obtained in early May showed that, the rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa was 42.7 marks. Meanwhile, 64% of the respondents did not support Tung as the Chief Executive, whereas 18% did. Figures on the popularity ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	2-4/2	1-3/3	22-24/3	1-3/4	3-7/5	Latest change
Sample base	1,031	1,031	1,015	1,022	1,013	--
Overall response rate	63.5%	63.7%	67.8%	64.1%	61.5%	--
Sampling error of ratings(at 95% conf. level)*	+/- 1.8	+/- 1.4	+/- 0.8	+/- 1.6	+/- 1.6	--
CS Donald Tsang	64.9	62.9	65.8	61.1	56.6	-4.5
FS Henry Tang	57.6	57.4	59.9	58.2	56.5	-1.7
SJ Elsie Leung	46.4	48.1	--	44.5	45.0	+0.5
Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao	60.7	59.8	--	59.8	58.8	-1.0
Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	60.4	57.4	--	58.3	57.2	-1.1
Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip	56.4	54.8	--	55.9	54.1	-1.8
Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li	51.3	50.9	--	48.2	48.7	+0.5
Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho	48.7	48.2	--	48.0	46.3	-1.7
Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong	49.5	48.1	--	49.1	46.2	-2.9
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma	44.0	46.4	--	45.5	45.9	+0.4
Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong	43.0	43.3	--	41.4	43.1	+1.7
Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen	47.9	45.2	--	41.5	42.1	+0.6
Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam	42.4	45.0	--	40.8	41.0	+0.2
Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang	**	**	--	**	**	--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with less than 50% recognition rates are taken as not representative.

Findings showed that, the ratings of CS Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 56.6, 56.5 and 45.0 marks in respective orders. As for the Directors of Bureaux, because it is POP's long established practice not to treat ratings of persons with less than 50% benchmark recognition rate as representative, the rating of Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah still cannot be meaningfully discussed in this survey, and has been listed separately in our summary rating table. Results revealed that the most popular official remained to be Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung, who scored 58.8 marks. Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong and Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan ranked 2nd and 3rd, with popularity ratings of 57.2 and 54.1 marks respectively. The 4th to 7th ranks fell to Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung, Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping, Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, attaining 48.7, 46.3, 46.2 and 45.9 marks correspondingly. Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong, Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung followed behind, scoring 43.1, 42.1 and 41.0 marks in respective orders.

Ratings of the top 10 Legislative Councillors obtained since May last year are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	2-7/5/03	11-12/8/03	10-12/11/03	9-14/2/04	3-7/5/04	Latest change
Sample base	1,008	1,010	1,062	1,008	1,013	--
Overall response rate	66.2%	68.7%	63.4%	66.0%	61.5%	--
Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)*	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.6	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.8	+/- 1.6	--
Audrey Eu	**	65.2 [1]	58.1 [1]	66.2 [1]	58.0 [1]	-8.2
Selina Chow	56.8 [3]	60.4 [4]	53.9 [3]	59.0 [3]	55.2 [2]	-3.8
Rita Fan	59.6 [1]	64.5 [2]	56.2 [2]	61.4 [2]	54.5 [3]	-6.9
James Tien	51.9 [7]	61.0 [3]	53.0 [5]	55.8 [5]	53.2 [4]	-2.6
Lee Cheuk-yan	54.5 [4]	57.2 [5]	51.5 [6]	58.8 [4]	52.0 [5]	-6.8
James To	**	**	**	**	49.9 [6]	--
Szeto Wah	52.4 [6]	54.1 [7]	48.1 [7]	53.2 [7]	48.5 [7]	-4.7
Martin Lee	50.9 [8]	55.4 [6]	46.3 [8]	54.6 [6]	48.2 [8]	-6.4
Emily Lau	48.9 [9]	51.7 [9]	45.1 [9]	49.7 [9]	45.5 [9]	-4.2
Jasper Tsang	47.7 [10]	43.2 [10]	39.6 [10]	42.6 [10]	42.0 [10]	-0.6
Andrew Wong	53.8 [5]	53.6 [8]	**	49.9 [8]	**	--
Lau Chin-shek	56.9 [2]	**	53.6 [4]	**	**	--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

With respect to the latest popularity ranking of the Legislative Councillors, results showed that Audrey Eu remained to be the most popularly supported councillor, attaining 58.0 marks. Selina Chow and Rita Fan came second and third with respective scores of 55.2 and 54.5 marks. James Tien and Lee Cheuk-yan ranked 4th and 5th, scoring 53.2 and 52.0 marks respectively. The subsequent ranks fell to James To, Szeto Wah, Martin Lee, Emily Lau and Jasper Tsang correspondingly. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 54.6 marks, while that for the top 10 was 50.7 marks.

The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in late April (April 19-22). In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. Martin Lee, Szeto Wah, Emily Lau, James To and Young Sum were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in early May, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, analyzed: "The survey was conducted after NPC interpreted the Basic Law as well as vetoed universal suffrage in 2007/08. It shows that the popularity of the Chief Executive, the principal officials and Legco members have all dropped. Among those whose popularity ratings have significantly dropped are those in favour of NPC's rulings, and those against. Coupled with HKU POP's earlier release on people's trust and confidence, it seems that, under the current debates of political reforms, the SAR Government, the Central Government, Legislative Councillors, as well as Hong Kong people, have entered into an all-lose scenario."

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release of regular survey findings will be May 18, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest ratings of the most well-known political groups, people's appraisal of press freedom and media credibility will be released.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.