HKU POP SITE releases the latest figures on the popularity of SAR and Central Governments, people's confidence in the future, and ratings of subjective freedom indicatorsBack

Press Release on April 20, 2004

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". Besides, the latest results of the 10 subjective freedom indicators are also released. Amongst them, the freedoms of "association", "striking", "entering or leaving Hong Kong", "engaging in academic research", "engaging in artistic and literary creation" and "religious belief" are released on-line for the first time. With respect to people's trust in different governments and their confidence in the future, recent figures are summarized below:

Date of survey	18-20/8/03	8-11/10/03	20-23/12/03	20-23/2/04	13-16/4/04	Latest change
Sample base	1,032	1,004	1,022	1,045	1,022	--
Overall response rate	70.3%	60.8%	66.0%	65.3%	64.4%	--
Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)*	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	--
Trust in HKSAR Government**	33%	25%	32%	34%	28%	-6%
Distrust in HKSAR Government**	36%	31%	38%	30%	30%	--
Trust in Beijing Government**	43%	44%	50%	43%	38%	-5%
Distrust in Beijing Government**	25%	18%	19%	22%	25%	+3%
Confidence in HK's future	49%	52%	61%	62%	58%	-4%
No-confidence in HK's future	35%	34%	25%	23%	29%	+6%
Confidence in China's future	81%	81%	86%	85%	83%	-2%
No-confidence in China's future	8%	9%	7%	7%	9%	+2%
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	52%	53%	56%	57%	50%	-7%
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	33%	32%	27%	27%	37%	+10%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

Results obtained in mid-April revealed that 28% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, and 38% trusted the Beijing Central Government. On the other hand, 58% were confident in Hong Kong's future, 83% were confident in China's future, while 50% expressed confidence in "one country, two systems".

Regarding the latest trend of the trust and confidence indicators, Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The interpretation of the Basic Law by NPC has caused all trust and confidence indicators to drop, especially for people's confidence in one country two systems and their trust in the SAR Government. People's trust in the Central Government has also plunged, if we include the previous drop due to the debate of patriotism initiated by Mainland officials, the accumulative effect was a drop of 12 percentage points so far. Going to the records, it was found that people's confidence in one country two systems also dropped from 61% to 56% after NPC's maiden interpretation of the Basic Law in June 1999. It then stayed low for about 6 months. Just like last time, NPC's interpretation this time has reversed the upward trend of people's confidence in one country two systems, and the absolute figure was even lower than that of last time. The Central and SAR Governments have both paid a big price in taking such a move."

Regarding the subjective freedom indicators, recent figures are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	2nd half of 03	8-11/10/03	2-4/1/04	13-16/4/04	Latest change
Sample base	2,050	1,004	1,005	1,022	---
Overall response rate	63.6%^	60.8%	67.5%	64.4%	---
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% conf. level)*	+/- 0.16^^	+/- 0.16	+/- 0.16	+/- 0.16	---
Freedom to enter or leave HK	8.35	8.41	8.43	8.58	+0.15
Freedom of religious belief	8.20	8.20	8.35	8.51	+0.16
Freedom to engage in artistic and literary creation	7.85	7.81	8.00	8.14	+0.14
Freedom to engage in academic research	7.90	7.92	7.93	8.09	+0.16
Freedom of publication	7.22	7.17	7.57	7.43	-0.14
Freedom of press	7.22	7.21	7.51	7.32	-0.19
Freedom of procession and demonstration	7.33	7.17	7.63	7.15	-0.48
Freedom of speech	6.97	6.96	7.37	7.11	-0.26
Freedom of association	6.88	6.81	7.16	7.07	-0.09
Freedom to strike	6.56	6.51	6.77	6.64	-0.13

Results revealed that, on a scale of 0-10, the freedoms of "entering or leaving Hong Kong" and "religious belief" scored the highest ratings with 8.58 and 8.51 marks, followed by freedoms to engage in "artistic and literary creation" and "academic research", attaining 8.14 and 8.09 marks correspondingly. "Publication" and "press" freedoms formed the next tier, with respective scores of 7.43 and 7.32 marks. Meanwhile, the freedoms of "procession and demonstration", "speech" and "association" scored 7.15, 7.11 and 7.07 marks in respective orders. Finally, "the freedom to strike" attained 6.64 marks.

Regarding the latest trend of the freedom indicators, Robert Chung observed, "The interpretation of the Basic Law by NPC has apparently not changed people's appraisal of the amount of freedom they enjoyed. On the top part of list and going up are the freedoms to travel, to hold religious beliefs, to engage in artistic and literary creation, and to engage in academic research. The freedom of procession and demonstration, however, has dropped significantly, probably due to the government's increasing interference with such activities recently."

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be April 27, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest figures on the popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa, as well as people's appraisal of the performance of the HKSAR Government and members of the Legislative Council will be released.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.