HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of Tung Chee-Hwa, Principal Officials under the accountability system and other members of the Executive CouncilBack
| Press Release on April 13, 2004 |
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The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest ratings of CE Tung Chee-Hwa, Principal Officials under the accountability system and other members of the Executive Council. Recent figures on the popularity of Tung are summarized as follows: |
| Date of survey | 20-23/2 | 1-3/3 | 10/3 | 22-24/3 | 1-3/4 | Latest change |
| Sample base | 1,045 | 1,031 | 1,023 | 1,015 | 1,022 | -- |
| Overall response rate | 65.3% | 63.7% | 64.7% | 67.8% | 64.1% | -- |
| Sampling error of ratings(at 95% conf. level)* | +/- 1.4 | +/- 1.4 | +/- 1.2 | +/- 1.4 | +/- 1.4 | -- |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | -- |
| Support rating of CH Tung | 44.9 | 45.6 | 45.0 | 46.2 | 43.0 | -3.2 |
| Vote of no confidence in CH Tung | 61% | 62% | 68% | 63% | 67% | +4% |
| Vote of confidence in CH Tung | 16% | 19% | 13% | 18% | 15% | -3% |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. |
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Results obtained in early April revealed that the latest rating of Tung Chee-hwa was 43.0 marks. Meanwhile, 67% of the respondents did not support Tung as the Chief Executive, whereas 15% did. Figures on the popularity ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability system are summarized below: |
| Date of survey | 2-4/1 | 2-4/2 | 1-3/3 | 22-24/3 | 1-3/4 | Latest change |
| Sample base | 1,005 | 1,031 | 1,031 | 1,015 | 1,022 | -- |
| Overall response rate | 67.5% | 63.5% | 63.7% | 67.8% | 64.1% | -- |
| Sampling error of ratings(at 95% conf. level)* | +/- 1.6 | +/- 1.8 | +/- 1.4 | +/- 0.8 | +/- 1.6 | -- |
| CS Donald Tsang | 64.2 | 64.9 | 62.9 | 65.8 | 61.1 | -4.7 |
| FS Henry Tang | 57.0 | 57.6 | 57.4 | 59.9 | 58.2 | -1.7 |
| SJ Elsie Leung | 46.4 | 46.4 | 48.1 | -- | 44.5 | -3.6 |
| Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao | 60.2 | 60.7 | 59.8 | -- | 59.8 | -- |
| Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee | 57.9 | 60.4 | 57.4 | -- | 58.3 | +0.9 |
| Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip | 55.4 | 56.4 | 54.8 | -- | 55.9 | +1.1 |
| Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong | 47.8 | 49.5 | 48.1 | -- | 49.1 | +1.0 |
| Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li | 49.6 | 51.3 | 50.9 | -- | 48.2 | -2.7 |
| Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho | 46.8 | 48.7 | 48.2 | -- | 48.0 | -0.2 |
| Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma | 44.7 | 44.0 | 46.4 | -- | 45.5 | -0.9 |
| Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen | 48.5 | 47.9 | 45.2 | -- | 41.5 | -3.7 |
| Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong | 45.4 | 43.0 | 43.3 | -- | 41.4 | -1.9 |
| Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam | 43.1 | 42.4 | 45.0 | -- | 40.8 | -4.2 |
| Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang | ** | ** | ** | -- | ** | -- |
| Non-Official Member of Executive Council Selina Chow | 56.5 | -- | -- | -- | 55.3 | -1.2 |
| Non-Official Member of Executive Council Cheng Yiu-tong | 44.5 | -- | -- | -- | 43.5 | -1.0 |
| Non-Official Member of Executive Council Leung Chun-ying | 43.4 | -- | -- | -- | 41.2 | -2.2 |
| Non-Official Member of Executive Council Jasper Tsang | 42.2 | -- | -- | -- | 40.9 | -1.3 |
| Non-Official Member of Executive Council Liao Cheung-sing | ** | -- | -- | -- | ** | -- |
| Director of CE's Office Lam Woon-kwong | 51.3 | -- | -- | -- | 51.1 | -0.2 |
| Head of Central Policy Unit Lau Siu-kai | 48.7 | -- | -- | -- | 46.5 | -2.2 |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. |
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Findings showed that, the ratings of CS Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 61.1, 58.2 and 44.5 marks in respective orders. As for the Directors of Bureaux, because it is POP's long established practice not to treat ratings of persons with less than 50% benchmark recognition rate as representative, the rating of Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah still cannot be meaningfully discussed in this survey, and has been listed separately in our summary rating table. Results revealed that the most popular official remained to be Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung, who scored 59.8 marks. Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong and Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan ranked 2nd and 3rd, with popularity ratings of 58.3 and 55.9 marks respectively. The 4th to 6th ranks fell to Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping, Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung and Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping, attaining 49.1, 48.2 and 48.0 marks correspondingly. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung, Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong and Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung followed behind, scoring 45.5, 41.5, 41.4 and 40.8 marks in respective orders. |
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Regarding people's ratings of the non-official members of the Executive Council, Selina Chow scored 55.3 marks, and leading with quite a margin from the rest. The ratings of Cheng Yiu-tong, Leung Chun-ying and Jasper Tsang were 43.5, 41.2 and 40.9 marks correspondingly, while that of Liao Cheung-sing was not taken as representative because of his less-than-50% recognition rate. As for the sit-in members, the Director of CE's Office Lam Woon-kwong and the Head of Central Policy Unit Lau Siu-kai scored 51.1 and 46.5 marks respectively. |
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As for the popularity indicators based on the hypothetical vote share on the reappointment or dismissal of Principal Officials, support rates since June last year are summarized as follows: |
| Date of survey | 3-6/6/03 | 1-3/9/03 | 1-7/12/03 | 2-4/2/04 | 1-3/4/04 | Latest change |
| Sample base | 1,027 | 1,059 | 1,008 | 1,031 | 1,022 | -- |
| Overall response rate | 66.6% | 69.3% | 62.9% | 63.5% | 64.1% | -- |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | -- |
| CS Donald Tsang | 71%[5%] | 71%[3%] | 71%[6%] | 72%[4%] | 65% [5%] | -7%[+1%] |
| FS Henry Tang | See end of table | 50%[3%] | 47%[11%] | 53%[6%] | 59%[6%] | +6%[--] |
| SJ Elsie Leung | 30%[27%] | 29%[35%] | 24%[40%] | 25%[37%] | 22%[41%] | -3%[+4%] |
| Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao | 59%[3%] | 70%[5%] | 67%[6%] | 67%[5%] | 72%[4%] | +5%[-1%] |
| Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee | Survey not started yet | 52%[2%] | 62%[3%] | 60%[2%] | 63%[4%] | +3%[+2%] |
| Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip | 46%[7%] | 56%[8%] | 55%[7%] | 52%[6%] | 56%[7%] | +4%[+1%] |
| Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li | 52%[11%] | 45%[19%] | 37%[28%] | 35%[26%] | 35%[31%] | --[+5%] |
| Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho | 40%[13%] | 39%[16%] | 26%[34%] | 32%[22%] | 34%[23%] | +2%[+1%] |
| Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong | 27%[17%] | 35%[17%] | 30%[22%] | 26%[17%] | 30%[18%] | +4%[+1%] |
| Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma | 16%[39%] | 21%[40%] | 19%[41%] | 22%[32%] | 27%[31%] | +5%[-1%] |
| Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang | Survey not started yet | 19%[3%] | 24%[6%] | 19%[5%] | 26%[6%] | +7%[+1%] |
| Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong | 29%[38%] | 29%[42%] | 27%[40%] | 25%[47%] | 21%[53%] | -4%[+6%] |
| Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen | 37%[15%] | 35%[23%] | 32%[30%] | 27%[28%] | 21%[46%] | -6%[+18%] |
| Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam | 18%[23%] | 19%[29%] | 21%[30%] | 19%[29%] | 19%[36%] | --[+7%] |
| Former FS Antony Leung | 19%[46%] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Former Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology Henry Tang | 47%[9%] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Former Secretary for Security Regina Ip | 48%[25%] | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. |
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Results showed that, the proportions of respondents who would vote for the reappointment of Donald Tsang, Henry Tang and Elsie Leung were 65%, 59% and 22% respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, only Sarah Liao, Ambrose Lee and Stephen Ip scored a reappointment rate of over 50%, at 72%, 63% and 56% correspondingly. |
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Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, analyzed: "The survey was conducted after the Central Government announced its intention to interpret the Basic Law again. Findings show that the popularity ratings of almost all officials and Executive Councillors have gone down, and that of CH Tung has plunged to a 3-month low, reflecting the negative effect of the move. Among the 22 persons being rated, only Donald Tsang has a rating of over 60 marks. Those below the 45-mark crisis level include, bottom-up, Stephen Lam, Jasper Tsang, Leung Chun-ying, Yeoh Eng-kiong, Michael Suen, CH Tung, Cheng Yiu-tong and Elsie Leung. If the SAR Government does not* handle people's post-interpretation anxiety properly, it may have to face yet another credibility crisis." |
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POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be April 20, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest results of people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems" will be released. Besides, we will also release the findings on the subjective freedom indicators. |
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Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors. |
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* The word "not" was accidentally left out in the original release. |
