HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and TaiwanBack


Press Release on March 26, 2004
 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest ratings of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan. This release has been scheduled for late next week, but is now brought forward in light of people's continued concern for the Taiwan presidential election. Recent figures are summarized as follows:

 
 Date of survey 12-17/9/02 17-19/3/03 15-17/9/03 22-24/3/04 Latest change
 Sample base 1,062 1,068 1,030 1,015 --
 Overall response rate 69.0% 71.5% 70.1% 67.8% --
 Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* +/- 1.8 +/- 1.8 +/- 1.8 +/- 1.8 --
 Zhu Rongji 75.3 [1] 79.2 [1] 75.0 [1] 74.9 [1] -0.1
 Hu Jintao　 63.1 [4] ** 67.3 [4] 71.0 [2] +3.7
 Wen Jiabao ** ** 70.8 [2] 70.6 [3] -0.2
 Ma Ying-jeou 62.4 [5] 65.8 [3] 61.0 [6] 65.9 [4] +4.9
 Jiang Zemin 65.7 [2] 66.4 [2] 65.7 [5] 63.4 [5] -2.3
 Lien Chan 46.4 [7] 49.5 [6] ** 54.5 [6] --
 Li Peng 47.1 [6] 46.8 [7] 43.4 [8] 40.0 [7] -3.4
 Lee Teng-hui 36.4 [9] 36.1 [10] 29.1 [10] 33.5 [8] +4.4
 Chen Shui-bian 39.9 [8] 39.3 [8] 35.5 [9] 31.0 [9] -4.5
 Lu Hsiu-lien 36.2 [10] 36.5 [9] ** 29.9 [10] --
 Wu Yi ** ** 69.8 [3] ** --
 James Soong ** 53.8 [5] 53.3 [7] ** --
 Qian Qichen 64.7 [3] 63.1 [4] ** ** --

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

 

Results obtained after the Taiwan presidential election revealed that Zhu Rongji has remained to be the most popular political figures across Mainland China and Taiwan, attaining 74.9 marks. Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao followed behind, with 71.0 and 70.6 marks respectively. Ma Ying-jeou and Jiang Zemin ranked 4th and 5th, scoring 65.9 and 63.4 marks. The 6th to 10th ranks fell to Lien Chan, Li Peng, Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian and Lu Hsiu-lien correspondingly. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political figures was 69.2 marks, while that for the top 10 was 53.5 marks.

 

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, made the following analysis: "Chen Shui-bian and Lu Hsiu-lien is the winning pair of the Taiwan presidential election, but their popularity ratings among Hong Kong people have both dropped. Lu's rating has dropped below 30 marks for the first time, and is very near the record low of all POP ratings for political figures. Because Lee Teng-hui's rating has not dropped with them, while Lien Chan and Ma Ying-jeou's ratings have both increased significantly, the latest change reflects more of Hong Kong people's dissatisfaction with the campaign strategies of Chen-Lu, than of their reaction towards the issue of Taiwan independence. On the other front, ex-Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji has remained to be Hong Kong people's favourite, while President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao have also attained ratings above 70 marks. The popularity of Hu and Wen seems unaffected by the debate on Hong Kong's constitutional reform."

 

The research design of our "Top 10 political figures of Mainland China and Taiwan" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web site. The top political figures listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early March. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Chen Shui-bian, Wen Jiabao, Hu Jintao, Jiang Zemin, Lien Chan and so on were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political figures were then entered into the second stage of the survey conducted in late March, during which respondents were asked to rate each political figure in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political figures in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 political figures. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since June 1997.

 

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to our schedule, the date and time of our next release will be March 30, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest popularity figures of CE Tung Chee-Hwa, CS Donald Tsang, FS Henry Tang and HKSARG will be released. Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.