HKU POP SITE releases the latest figures on the popularity of SAR and Central Governments, people's confidence in the future, and ratings of political groupsBack

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest findings on the popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa and the HKSAR Government, people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems", as well as ratings of the most well-known political groups. Recent figures on the popularity of Tung and the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

Results obtained in late February showed that, the rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa was 44.9 marks. Meanwhile, 61% of the respondents did not support Tung as the Chief Executive, whereas 16% did. Besides, 39% were dissatisfied with Tung's policy direction, while 13% were satisfied. On the other hand, 45% expressed dissatisfaction with the overall performance with the HKSAR Government, 16% were satisfied.

With respect to people's trust in different governments and their confidence in the future, recent figures are summarized below:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

The latest results revealed that 34% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, and 43% trusted the Beijing Central Government. On the other hand, 62% were confident in Hong Kong's future, 85% were confident in China's future, while 57% expressed confidence in "one country, two systems".

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The recent controversy on patriotism ignited by authorities in the Mainland has taken its toll, on the Central Government itself. Our latest survey found that Hong Kong people's trust in the Central Government has dropped 7 percentage points in 2 months, in spite of more positive ratings on CH Tung and the SARG. People's confidence in the future of Hong Kong, China and one country two systems has basically remained unchanged. If our Mainland authorities continue to equate patriotism with loving the Communist Party, it will have a very damaging effect on the image of the Central Government, an image which Beijing has tried so hard to instill among Hong Kong people after the handover."

Ratings of the most well-known political groups over the year past are summarized as follows:

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
** Ratings with recognition rates below 50% are not available.

Findings showed that, the top 3 on the list of the most well-known political groups were Hong Kong Confederation of Trade Unions (CTU), Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) and Democratic Party (DP), attaining 52.3 and 51.3 and 50.8 marks correspondingly. Liberal Party (LP) and Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL) ranked 4th and 5th, with support ratings of 49.7 and 49.0 marks respectively. The 6th to 9th ranks fell to Frontier, Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movement in China (HKASPDMC), Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB) and April Fifth Action (AFA), in respective order. Since the 10th political group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it was dropped from the list (please refer to the explanations in the subsequent paragraph as well as under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page). The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 50.6 marks, which was slightly higher than that registered in mid-November last year.

On the rating of the political groups, Robert Chung observed, " The ratings of all major political groups have gone up in the latest round of survey, with CTU, DP and Frontier having the biggest gain. The first two positions continued to be dominated by CTU and FTU, which represent labour interest. LP, on the other hand, continued its consecutive drop to the 4th position after July 1. This contrasts with DAB's gradual but slow recovery after July 1. Both indicate that the effect of July 1 is fading away."

The research design of our "Most well-known political groups" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted between February 9-14. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Party (DP), Democratic Alliance for Betterment of Hong Kong (DAB), Liberal Party (LP), Frontier and Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood (ADPL) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups were then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted between February 20-23, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. Finally, any group which failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate was also dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998.

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be March 9, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest findings on the popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa and the Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.