HKU POP SITE releases the latest figures on the popularityBack

Press Release on February 10, 2004

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk), the latest figures on the popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability system. Recent figures on the popularity of Tung are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	2-4/1/04	7/1/04	14-16/1/04	26-29/1/04	2-4/2/04	Latest change
Sample base	1,005	1,040	1,000	1,056	1,031	--
Overall response rate	67.5%	67.5%	63.2%	65.4%	63.5%	--
Sampling error of rating(at 95% conf. level)*	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.4	--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	--
Support rating of CH Tung	42.9	44.6	43.5	43.8	45.4	+1.6
Vote of confidence in CH Tung	16%	15%	14%	16%	15%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in CH Tung	68%	64%	69%	63%	64%	+1%

Results of early February showed that, the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa was 45.4 marks. Meanwhile, 64% of the respondents did not support Tung as the Chief Executive, whereas 15% did. Figures on the popularity ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	1-2/10/03	3-6/11/03	1-7/12/03	2-4/1/04	2-4/2/04	Latest change
Sample base	1,052	1,001	1,008	1,005	1,031	--
Overall response rate	65.7%	60.7%	62.9%	67.5%	63.5%	--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% conf. level)*	+/-1.6	+/-1.6	+/- 1.6	+/- 1.6	+/- 1.8	--
CS Donald Tsang	63.2	64.5	63.2	64.2	64.9	+0.7
FS Henry Tang	58.9	56.3	54.7	57.0	57.6	+0.6
SJ Elsie Leung	47.4	47.6	45.2	46.4	46.4	--
Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao	59.4	61.1	59.1	60.2	60.7	+0.5
Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	57.2	58.5	58.1	57.9	60.4	+2.5
Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip	55.2	55.9	55.0	55.4	56.4	+1.0
Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li	52.1	52.5	49.2	49.6	51.3	+1.7
Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong	48.8	49.5	47.9	47.8	49.5	+1.7
Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho	50.8	51.7	45.1	46.8	48.7	+1.9
Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen	46.5	48.3	47.4	48.5	47.9	-0.6
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma	43.3	44.6	42.7	44.7	44.0	-0.7
Secretary for Health, Welfare and FoodYeoh Eng-kiong	45.6	45.8	45.1	45.4	43.0	-2.4
Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam	43.0	44.7	43.0	43.1	42.4	-0.7
Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang	**	**	**	**	**	--

Findings showed that, the ratings of CS Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 64.9, 57.6 and 46.4 marks in respective orders. As for the Directors of Bureaux, because it is POP's long established practice not to treat ratings of persons with less than 50% benchmark recognition rate as representative, the rating of Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah still cannot be meaningfully discussed in this survey, and has been listed separately in our summary rating table. Results revealed that the ratings of Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung and Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong were very close, at 60.7 and 60.4 marks respectively. Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan and Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung ranked 3rd and 4th, with popularity ratings of 56.4 and 51.3 marks respectively. Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping, Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping and Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung ranked from 5th to 7th, attaining 49.5, 48.7 and 47.9 marks correspondingly. Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong and Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung followed behind, scoring 44.0, 43.0 and 42.4 marks correspondingly.

As for the popularity indicators based on the hypothetical vote share on the reappointment or dismissal of Principal Officials, support rates since March last year are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	12-13/3/03	3-6/6/03	1-3/9/03	1-7/12/03	2-4/2/04	Latest change
Sample base	1,040	1,027	1,059	1,008	1,031	--
Overall response rate	72.3%	66.6%	69.3%	62.9%	63.5%	--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	--
CS Donald Tsang	--	71%[5%]	71%[3%]	71%[6%]	72%[4%]	+1%[-2%]
FS Henry Tang	See end of table		50%[3%]	47%[11%]	53%[6%]	+6%[-5%]
SJ Elsie Leung	--	30%[27%]	29%[35%]	24%[40%]	25%[37%]	+1%[-3%]
Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao	--	59%[3%]	70%[5%]	67%[6%]	67%[5%]	--[-1%]
Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	Survey not started yet		52%[2%]	62%[3%]	60%[2%]	-2%[-1%]
Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip	--	46%[7%]	56%[8%]	55%[7%]	52%[6%]	-3%[-1%]
Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li	--	52%[11%]	45%[19%]	37%[28%]	35%[26%]	-2%[-2%]
Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho	--	40%[13%]	39%[16%]	26%[34%]	32%[22%]	+6%[-12%]
Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen	--	37%[15%]	35%[23%]	32%[30%]	27%[28%]	-5% [-2%]
Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong	--	27%[17%]	35%[17%]	30%[22%]	26%[17%]	-4%[-5%]
Secretary for Health, Welfare and FoodYeoh Eng-kiong	--	29%[38%]	29%[42%]	27%[40%]	25%[47%]	-2%[+7%]
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma	--	16%[39%]	21%[40%]	19%[41%]	22%[32%]	+3%[-9%]
Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang	Survey not started yet		19%[3%]	24%[6%]	19%[5%]	-5%[-1%]
Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam	--	18%[23%]	19%[29%]	21%[30%]	19%[29%]	-2%[-1%]
Former FS Antony Leung	21%[35%]	19%[46%]	--	--	--	--
Former Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology Henry Tang	--	47%[9%]	--	--	--	--
Former Secretary for Security Regina Ip	--	48%[25%]	--	--	--	--

Results showed that, the proportions of respondents who would vote for the reappointment of Donald Tsang, Henry Tang and Elsie Leung were 72%, 53% and 25% respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, only Sarah Liao, Ambrose Lee and Stephen Ip scored a reappointment rate of over 50%, at 67%, 60% and 52% correspondingly.

People's approval rates of various officials are as follows**:

Date of survey	1/8/03	4-5/8/03	1-5/8/03	2-4/2/04	Latest change
Sample base	348	664	1,012	1,031	---
Overall response rate	68.4%	68.5%	68.5%	63.5%	---
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*	+/-5%	+/-4%	+/-3%	+/- 3%	---
CE Tung Chee-hwa	11% [57%]	14% [50%]	13% [53%]	14% [45%]	+1%[-8%]
CS Donald Tsang	54% [7%]	52% [7%]	53% [7%]	58%[6%]	+5%[-1%]
FS Henry Tang	See end of table			31%[8%]	--[--]
SJ Elsie Leung	18% [36%]	18% [33%]	18% [34%]	18%[40%]	-- [+6%]
Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao	47% [7%]	52% [7%]	50% [7%]	52%[6%]	+2%[-1%]
Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	Survey not started yet			39%[3%]	--[--]
Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip	28% [14%]	29% [10%]	29% [11%]	33%[7%]	+4%[-4%]
Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li	25% [20%]	27% [20%]	26% [20%]	24%[28%]	-2%[+8%]
Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho	21% [20%]	22% [18%]	21% [19%]	19%[25%]	-2%[+6%]
Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen	17% [27%]	19% [25%]	18% [25%]	18%[34%]	--[+9%]
Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong	14% [50%]	16% [45%]	16% [47%]	17%[49%]	+1%[+2%]
Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong	15% [22%]	15% [17%]	15% [19%]	14%[18%]	-1%[-1%]
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma	7% [4%]	9% [41%]	8% [42%]	12%[34%]	+4%[-8%]
Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam	10% [28%]	10% [27%]	10% [27%]	10%[29%]	--[+2%]
Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang	Survey not started yet			7%[5%]	--[--]
Non-Official Member of Executive Council, including Leung Chun-ying, Selina Chow, Jasper Tsang, Cheng Yiu-tong and Liao Cheung-sing***	9% [37%]	12% [32%]	11% [33%]	15%[32%]	+4%[-1%]
Former FS Antony Leung	---	---	--	--	--
Former Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology Henry Tang	21% [12%]	34% [6%]	30% [8%]	--	--
Former Secretary for Security Regina Ip	---	---	--	--	--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The question used was "Do you think XXX is doing a good job as [his/her title]?"
*** James Tien was included in the surveys conducted before August 2003. His name was replaced with Selina Chow since February 2004.
[ ] Disapproval rate.

Results of early February showed that, by use of a 5-pt scale, 14% of the respondents thought Tung was doing a good job as the CE, as contrast to 45% who held the opposite view. Besides, 58% and 31% respectively thought Donald Tsang and Henry Tang were doing a good job, however, 40% said Elsie Leung was doing a bad job. As for the approval rates of Directors of Bureaux, 52% thought that Sarah Liao was doing a good job, followed by Ambrose Lee, Stephen Ip, Arthur Li, Patrick Ho, Michael Suen, Yeoh Eng-kiong, Joseph Wong, Frederick Ma, Stephen Lam and John Tsang in respective order. Besides, only 15% of the respondents believed that the non-official members of the Executive Council were doing a good job as a whole.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, analyzed: "The latest figures indicated that ratings of the CE and most Principal Officials have increased, and Tung's rating has climbed back to the 45-mark level for the first time in 4 months. The popularity rating of Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong, however, has significantly dropped, apparently affected by the investigation of the SARS incident. In terms of hypothetical voting commonly used in the West, among the CE and all Principal Officials, only Donald Tsang, Sarah Liao, Ambrose Lee, Henry Tang and Stephen Ip have support rates of over 50%, meaning that the popularity of the SAR core leadership is still very low on the whole."

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be February 17, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest popularity ratings of the top ten Legislative Councillors and people's appraisal of press freedom and media performance will be released.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.