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Press Release on January 29, 2004

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) findings of a Policy Address follow-up survey, including the latest rating of the CE, and people's satisfaction with his policy direction. In the past many years, POP has conducted instant polls after the head of the government delivered his Policy Address, or after the Financial Secretary delivered his Budget Speech. Such instant polls, which measure people's instant reaction to the policies, would be followed weeks later by our follow-up surveys, which measure people's more matured reaction. We believe this is a better way to study public opinion on these issues. The Policy Address instant poll this year has already been released quite some time ago, while the findings of the follow-up survey are released today. Recent figures on Tung's popularity are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	1-7/12/03	20-23/12/03	2-4/1/04	7/1/04	14-16/1/04	Latest change
Sample base	1,008	1,022	1,005	1,040	1,000	--
Overall response rate	62.9%	66.0%	67.5%	67.5%	63.2%	--
Sampling error of rating (at 95% conf. level)*	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.4	--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	--
Support rating of CH Tung	42.6	43.8	42.9	44.6	43.5	-1.1
Vote of confidence in CH Tung	15%	15%	16%	15%	14%	-1%
Vote of no confidence in CH Tung	68%	65%	68%	64%	69%	+5%
Satisfaction rate of Tung's policy direction**	--	15%	--	13%	13%	--
Dissatisfaction rate of Tung's policy direction**	--	47%	--	45%	48%	+3%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

Results of the follow-up survey showed that, the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa registered in mid-January was 43.5 marks. Meanwhile, 69% of the respondents did not support Tung as the Chief Executive, whereas 14% did. On the other hand, 48% were dissatisfied with Tung's policy direction, 13% were satisfied.

Regarding the popularity of the CE, Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our record across the years shows that CE's popularity goes up every time he delivers a policy address, this year is no exception. On the night after the CE presented his Policy Address, his popularity rating picked up 1.7 marks when compared to that registered a few days before. However, one week later, Tung's rating dropped back 1.1 marks again, while people's opposition of Tung as the CE, and their dissatisfaction with Tung's policy direction, have both gone back to the pre-address level. This means that the stabilizing effect to Tung's popularity brought by the address was very brief, and Tung's popularity will probably stay below the 45-mark credibility crisis level for some time."

With respect to people's specific reactions towards the contents of this year's Policy Address, findings of the instant poll and follow-up survey are summarized below:

Date of follow-up survey (FU survey)								14-16/1/04
Sample base								1,000
Overall response rate								63.2%
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)*								+/- 3%
Date of instant poll								7/1/04
Sample base								1,040
Overall response rate								67.5%
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)*								+/- 3%
How satisfied are you with Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa's Policy Address?**
FU survey	Satisfied	10%	Half-half	27%	Dissatisfied	29%	DK/HS	35%	Total	100%
Instant poll#	Satisfied	25%	Half-half	26%	Dissatisfied	33%	DK/HS	16%	Total	100%
Has your confidence in the future of Hong Kong increased or decreased after Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa delivered his Seventh Policy Address?
FU survey	Increased	23%	Unchanged	56%	Decreased	13%	DK/HS	8%	Total	100%
Instant poll#	Increased	32%	Unchanged	40%	Decreased	16%	DK/HS	12%	Total	100%
This year, the theme of Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa's policy address is "Seizing Opportunities for Development: Promoting People-based Governance". Do you think this theme concurs with the current needs of society?
FU survey	Yes	45%	Half-half	14%	No	23%	DK/HS	18%	Total	100%
Instant poll	Yes	50%	Half-half	12%	No	19%	DK/HS	20%	Total	100%
CE said the government "will strike a careful balance between reducing the fiscal deficit and safeguarding people's livelihood, and give the community adequate time to recover". Do you think his Policy Address announced today could achieve this objective?
FU survey	Yes	14%	Half-half	12%	No	51%	DK/HS	23%	Total	100%
Instant poll	Yes	12%	Half-half	9%	No	41%	DK/HS	38%	Total	100%
CE said he was aware of the public expectation of better governance. Do you think the Policy Address announced today has answered people's expectation?
FU survey	Yes	12%	Half-half	15%	No	56%	DK/HS	16%	Total	100%
Instant poll	Yes	12%	Half-half	12%	No	41%	DK/HS	36%	Total	100%
Regarding constitutional review, CE said he had decided to establish a task force headed by the Chief Secretary to examine this issue seriously. Do you think this decision has answered people's demand?
FU survey	Yes	35%	Half-half	16%	No	36%	DK/HS	13%	Total	100%
Instant poll	Yes	34%	Half-half	12%	No	36%	DK/HS	18%	Total	100%
Do you think there CE should face the public directly after he announced his Policy Address?
FU survey	Yes	79%	Half-half /Doesn't matter	5%	No	12%	DK/HS	4%	Total	100%
Instant poll	Yes	76%	Half-half /Doesn't matter	5%	No	13%	DK/HS	6%	Total	100%

The follow-up survey suggested that, one week after the announcement of the Policy Address, only 10% of the respondents were satisfied with the contents of the address, 29% were dissatisfied, while 27% said "half-half". Besides, 23% said their confidence in the future of Hong Kong had increased after the Policy Address, 56% opted for "no change", whilst 13% said their confidence had dropped. Findings also revealed that, although 45% of the respondents perceived the theme of this year's Policy Address "Seizing Opportunities for Development: Promoting People-based Governance" to be in line with the current needs of society, only 14% believed CE's proposed policies could "strike a careful balance between reducing the fiscal deficit and safeguarding people's livelihood, and give the community adequate time to recover". On the other hand, notwithstanding Tung's asserting that he was aware of the public expectation of better governance, only 12% considered the newly announced Policy Address has met with people's expectation. As for Tung's decision to establish a task force headed by the Chief Secretary for examining constitutional review, 35% said such a move has answered people's demands, whereas 36% believed it has not. Finally, 79% of the respondents thought Tung needed to face the public directly after giving his Policy Address, 12% perceived no such need.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed again, "The figures indicated that, one week after the CE delivered his Policy Address, there was a significant drop in the number of people who were satisfied with the address, another sign that the positive effect brought by the Policy Address has subsided swiftly. People were still more satisfied with the theme of 'Seizing Opportunities for Development: Promoting People-based Governance', but more than half of them believed it could not answer their expectation of better governance, nor could it 'strike a careful balance between reducing the fiscal deficit and safeguarding people's livelihood, and give the community adequate time to recover'. The only good news is that people's opinion towards constitutional review has remained more or less unchanged, there was still a trio-split in people's opinion: about one-third said people's demands have been answered, one-third said no, another one-third did not comment. This was more or less the same as that of the instant poll. Besides, nearly 80% of the respondents said the CE should face the public directly after he presented his Policy Address, which was even higher than that registered in the instant poll. This is an indirect indication that people were dissatisfied with Tung's evading the public."

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be February 3, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest figures on the popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa, as well as people's appraisal of the performance of the HKSAR Government and members of the Legislative Council will be released.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <pop.network@hkupop.pori.hk>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.