HKU POP SITE will release tomorrow in its "POP Column" a bilingual article written by Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, entitled "Reliance on the Central Government cannot be overdone"Back

The "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) of the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong will release tomorrow in its "POP Column" an article written by Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of the Public Opinion Programme at HKU. Entitled "Reliance on the Central Government cannot be overdone", the article analyzed, using public opinion data, the development of Hong Kong people's confidence in "one country, two systems" since 1993, and the role of CE Tung Chee-hwa on this issue. This article will be published in bilingual versions, released herewith are the key contents for media preview.

The article pointed out that, in his Policy Address delivered last week, CE Tung Chee-hwa made an unprecedented move by mentioning President Hu Jintao and the "Mainland legal experts". Then, at the press conference held afterwards, Tung for the first time used the term "four legal masters", hence lifting their status to a level just under the Central leaders.

Chung analyzed that, Tung's purpose was to shift the responsibility of procrastinating the launching of constitutional review onto the Central Government. The fact that the Central leaders have to publicize their stand through Tung and the "four legal masters" not only proves that Tung is incompetent in his governance, but also bears the risk of paying a political price - that of weakening Hong Kong people's confidence in "one country, two systems".

Citing opinion poll figures, Chung pointed out that people's confidence in "one country, two systems" over the past decade or so could by and large be divided into three stages. Stage One from 1993 to 1996, Stage Two between 1997 and 1998, and Stage Three from 1999 to 2003.

As seen from the table, during the first stage, the confidence and no-confidence levels usually wrestled with one another between 35% and 45%, probably a result of the fierce wrangle between the Beijing and British Governments before the handover. The second stage started sometime around late 1996, when Tung was selected as the first Chief Executive, up to the latter half of 1998. During this period, a series of blunders made by the SAR Government erupted one after another. However, because there was no sign of interference in local affairs by the Central Government, people's confidence in "one country, two systems" surged, from 45% to 67%. Yet, from 1999 to now, which is the third stage of the development, during which many incidents emerged, such as the re-interpretation of the Basic Law by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the Central Government's support of Tung's pursuit of his second term of office, and the legislation of Article 23 of the Basic Law, just to mention a few. The general public's confidence in "one country, two systems" has been fluctuating downwards, from 67% to 49% registered in the first half of 2003. It was until the Central Government led by Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao answered people's demands voiced on July 1 with an open attitude, and people's confidence in "one country, two system" became stable again.

Chung believed that Tung is indeed the primary cause for the decline in people's confidence, whereas the Central Government's role has been rather passive, for three reasons:

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, made the following analysis: "After the New Year Rally, but before CE delivered his policy address, the popularity ratings of almost all Principal Officials, as well as the readings of all freedom indicators, have gone up. This is consistent with the trend of other social indicators. People's appraisal of their freedom to demonstrate has again topped the list, like after the July 1 Rally, and reached a record high. On the other hand, because of people's increased demand for constitutional review, Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam has fallen to the bottom of the list of Principal Officials, in spite of his rather stable popularity ratings. Nevertheless, his rating was still higher than that of C.H. Tung registered in the same survey."

(1) In the controversy surrounding the interpretation of the Basic Law by the NPC in 1999, the Central Government used the "four legal masters" as a protective shield for the first time, and used Mainland experts as the government spokesmen, because the Central leaders intended to avoid interfering local affairs. However, long before the Court of Final Appeal made its ruling on the right of abode issue, Tung himself had pronounced his position and insisted on requesting NPC for re-interpretation of the Basic Law, which put the Central Government in a stark dilemma.

(2) At the end of 2001, as Tung engineered for his second term of office amidst his record low popularity, he sought help from the Central leaders once again. Moreover, Tung then adopted an execrable strategy of sweeping off 700 odd nominations, therefore making the election obsolete, even though it was only a small-circle election. Tung has in effect introduced the concept of "vote-to-vote" election from Mainland to Hong Kong, which was one step backwards in Hong Kong's democratic development. This could not have been the intention of the Central Government.

(3) On July 5, after the July 1 Demonstration, Tung still stubbornly adhered to the original timetable for legislating for Article 23 of the Basic Law, which was an utter dismissal of what could have been a violent outbreak on July 9.

The article criticized Tung for his failure in understanding the public sentiment, which resulted in the Central Government's many misinterpretations and misjudgments of the democratic demands of Hong Kong people. In the new round of constitutional discussions, Tung have put Hu and the "four legal masters" on the table, again eroding the trust between Hong Kong people and the Central Government.

Chung suggested that, if the Mainland legal experts truly want to examine the legal basis of Article 45 of the Basic Law from a professional perspective, they can conduct professional studies and seminars in conjunction with other Mainland, local and overseas legal experts. On the other hand, if the Central Government is going to use "four legal masters" as its spokesmen again, in order to escort Tung, the general public and the Central Government will have everything to lose.

Table: People's confidence in "one country, two systems" (half-yearly average)

* These figures were obtained from the 88 rounds of random surveys conducted independently by HKUPOP in the past 11 years. The sample size is 59,201, with an average response rate of 53.6%.

This press release is published by the Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong. Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, which does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>, but we will not further comment on the contents. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted in the POP Site, except for column articles. The authors of the column articles are responsible for their own writings, while the translators are responsible for their own translations