HKU POP SITE releases findings on people's instant reactions towards the Policy AddressBack
| Press Release on January 8, 2004 |
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The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) findings of an instant survey on people's reactions towards the Policy Address, including the latest rating of the CE, and people's satisfaction with his policy direction. In the past many years, POP has conducted instant polls after the head of the government delivered his Policy Address, or after the Financial Secretary delivered his Budget Speech. Such instant polls, which measure people's instant reaction to the policies, would be followed weeks later by our follow-up surveys, which measure people's more matured reaction. We believe this is a better way to study public opinion on these issues. Recent figures on Tung's popularity are summarized as follows: |
| Date of survey | 15-18/11/03 | 1-7/12/03 | 20-23/12/03 | 2-4/1/04 | 7/1/04 | Latest change |
| Sample base | 1,030 | 1,008 | 1,022 | 1,005 | 1,040 | -- |
| Overall response rate | 64.1% | 62.9% | 66.0% | 67.5% | 67.5% | -- |
| Sampling error of rating (at 95% conf. level)* | +/- 1.4 | +/- 1.4 | +/- 1.4 | +/- 1.4 | +/- 1.4 | -- |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | -- |
| Support rating of CH Tung | 43.6 | 42.6 | 43.8 | 42.9 | 44.6 | +1.7 |
| Vote of confidence in CH Tung | 17% | 15% | 15% | 16% | 15% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in CH Tung | 65% | 68% | 65% | 68% | 64% | -4% |
| Satisfaction rate of Tung's policy direction** | -- | -- | 15% | -- | 13% | -2% |
| Dissatisfaction rate of Tung's policy direction** | -- | -- | 47% | -- | 45% | -2% |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. |
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The install poll conducted last night showed that, after CE Tung Chee-hwa announced his Policy Address, his latest rating registered was 44.6 marks. Meanwhile, 64% of the respondents did not support Tung as the Chief Executive, whereas 15% did. On the other hand, 45% were dissatisfied with Tung's policy direction, 13% were satisfied. |
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Regarding the popularity of the CE after giving his Policy Address, Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our track record across the years shows that CE's popularity goes up every time he delivers a policy address, this year is no exception. According to our instant poll last night, his popularity rating picked up 1.7 marks compared to that registered a few days ago. However, it was still below 45, and also 2.7 marks lower than that of last year. There was a slightly decrease in the number of people opposing Tung, but his supporters have not increased. This year's Policy Address has only a nominal stabilizing effect on his popularity rating." |
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With respect to people's specific reactions towards the contents of this year's Policy Address, findings are summarized below: |
| Date of survey | 7/1/04 | ||||||||
| Sample base | 1,040 | ||||||||
| Overall response rate | 67.5% | ||||||||
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)* | +/- 3% | ||||||||
| This year, the theme of Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa's policy address is "Seizing Opportunities for Development: Promoting People-based Governance". Do you think this theme concurs with the current needs of society? | |||||||||
| Yes | 50% | Half-half | 12% | No | 19% | Don't know / Hard to say | 20% | Total | 100% |
| CE said the government "will strike a careful balance between reducing the fiscal deficit and safeguarding people's livelihood, and give the community adequate time to recover". Do you think his Policy Address announced today could achieve this objective? | |||||||||
| Yes | 12% | Half-half | 9% | No | 41% | Don't know / Hard to say | 38% | Total | 100% |
| CE said he was aware of the public expectation of better governance. Do you think the Policy Address announced today has answered people's expectation? | |||||||||
| Yes | 12% | Half-half | 12% | No | 41% | Don't know / Hard to say | 36% | Total | 100% |
| Regarding constitutional review, CE said he had decided to establish a task force headed by the Chief Secretary to examine this issue seriously. Do you think this decision has answered people's demand? | |||||||||
| Yes | 34% | Half-half | 12% | No | 36% | Don't know / Hard to say | 18% | Total | 100% |
| Do you think there CE should face the public directly after he announced his Policy Address? | |||||||||
| Yes | 76% | Half-half / Doesn't matter | 5% | No | 13% | Don't know / Hard to say | 6% | Total | 100% |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. |
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The survey suggested that, although 50% of the respondents perceived the theme of this year's Policy Address "Seizing Opportunities for Development: Promoting People-based Governance" to be in line with the current needs of society, but only 12% believed CE's proposed policies could "strike a careful balance between reducing the fiscal deficit and safeguarding people's livelihood, and give the community adequate time to recover". Besides, notwithstanding Tung's asserting that he was aware of the public expectation of better governance, only 12% considered the newly announced Policy Address has met with people's expectation. As for Tung's decision to establish a task force headed by the Chief Secretary for examining constitutional review, 34% said such a move has answered people's demands, whereas 36% believed it has not. Finally, 76% of the respondents thought Tung needed to face the public directly after giving his Policy Address, 13% perceived no such need. |
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With respect to people's overall rating of the Policy Address, as well as the change of their confidence towards the future, the figures are summarized below: |
| Date of survey | Sub-sample base# | Overall response rate | Sampling error of rating* | Sampling error of %* | Appraisal of Policy Address: Satisfaction rate** | Appraisal of Policy Address: Half-half | Appraisal of Policy Address: Dissatisfaction rate** | Satisfaction rating of Policy Address |
| 7/1/04 | 381 | 67.5% | +/- 2.4 | +/- 5% | 25% | 26% | 33% | 49.3 |
| 8/1/03^ | 377 | 67.3% | +/- 2.6 | +/- 5% | 22% | 29% | 27% | 51.6 |
| 10/10/01 | 433 | 66.0% | +/- 2.2 | +/- 5% | 29% | 33% | 27% | 56.7 |
| 11/10/00 | 262 | 69.7% | +/- 2.8 | +/- 6% | 25% | 28% | 31% | 55.2 |
| 6/10/99 | 236 | 54.5% | +/- 2.8 | +/- 6% | 31% | 30% | 25% | 57.3 |
| 7/10/98 | 508 | 56.5% | -- | +/- 4% | 22% | 35% | 35% | -- |
| 8/10/97 | 534 | 62.9% | -- | +/- 4% | 45% | 30% | 14% | -- |
| Date of survey | Sub-sample base# | Overall response rate | Sampling error of %* | Confidence in HK's future…by the Policy Address | ||
| Increased | Unchanged | Decreased | ||||
| 7/1/04 | 602 | 67.5% | +/- 4% | 32% | 40% | 16% |
| 8/1/03^ | 513 | 67.3% | +/- 4% | 25% | 40% | 22% |
| 10/10/01 | 591 | 66.0% | +/- 4% | 22% | 50% | 21% |
| 11/10/00 | 292 | 69.7% | +/- 6% | 22% | 40% | 15% |
| 6/10/99 | 233 | 54.5% | +/- 6% | 40% | 36% | 16% |
| 7/10/98 | 505 | 56.5% | +/- 4% | 21% | 52% | 22% |
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* All figures are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. |
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Results showed that, among the respondents who had heard of the Policy Address, 25% were satisfied with it, 33% were dissatisfied, while the average rating registered for the Policy Address was 49.3 marks. Besides, excluding those who said they would not answer because they did not know the content of the policy address, 32% said their confidence in the future of Hong Kong had increased, 40% opted for "no change", whilst 16% said their confidence had dropped. |
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Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed again, "This year's policy address scored only 49.3 marks, a record low as well as the first time below the passing mark of 50. This was probably due to CE's poor popularity, rather than the actual contents of the address. People seemed to be quite satisfied with the theme of "Seizing Opportunities for Development: Promoting People-based Governance", but very few said it could answer their expectation of better governance. As on constitutional review, there was a trio-split of opinions in people's initial reaction: about one-third said people's demands have been answered, one-third said no, another one-third did not comment. Finally, most people said CE should face the public directly after he presented his Policy Address. In evading the public, Tung has once again missed the opportunity to push up his popularity." |
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POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be January 13, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability system and other members of the Executive Council, as well as those on the 4 subjective freedom indicators on Hong Kong's freedom of "speech", "press", "publication", and "procession and demonstration" will be released. |
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Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors |
