HKU POP releases ratings of the top 5 Executive CouncillorsBack
Press Release on April 25, 2018
| Detailed Findings (Popularity of Executive Councillors) |
Special Announcements
1. The Public Opinion Programme of The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP) is transforming into an independent organization called the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) which is expected to operate officially on May 4, 2019. HKPORI will carry on the spirit of May Fourth Movement and the mission of HKUPOP, it will continue to serve the society with integrity and quality as its motto, and become a civil society conscientious enterprise.
2. Under HKPORI will be a research programme called Hong Kong Public
Opinion Program (HKPOP) which will continue to conduct public opinion
surveys, but will require public funding before releasing surveys. That
means HKUPOP’s release of ratings of the top 5 Executive Councillors is the
final release of the series. Whether it will appear again or not in the
future is uncertain. For public releases on the establishment of HKPOP,
please refer to our website:
https://hkupop.pori.hk/english/release/release1583_pr.html
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Abstract
HKUPOP conducted a double stage survey on the ratings of Executive Councillors from March to April by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that compared to five months ago, in terms of familiarity, Ip Kwok-him has replaced Arthur Li to enter the top 5. In terms of absolute ratings, among the top 5, the ratings of Joseph Yam, Regina Ip and Fanny Law have increased while that of Ronny Tong has decreased, but only that of Joseph Yam has changed beyond sampling error. Joseph Yam is also the only councillor attaining a rating higher than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Joseph Yam continues to rank first, Regina Ip and Ronny Tong swap positions to rank second and third, Fanny Law continues to rank fourth, Ip Kwok-him newly enters the list to rank fifth. It should be noted however that our top 5 list only includes councillors who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of rating figures is below +/-2.4 marks. The response rate of the rating survey is 64%.
Contact Information
|
Date of survey |
: |
14-19/3/2019 (Naming stage)
|
|
Survey method |
: |
Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
|
Target population |
: |
Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
|
Sample size[1] |
: |
1,024 (Naming stage; including 684 landline and 340
mobile samples)
|
|
Effective response rate[2] |
: |
73.1% (Naming stage)
|
|
Sampling error[3] |
: |
Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.4 at 95% confidence level |
|
Weighting method[4] |
: |
Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] Starting from April 2018, HKUPOP revised the landline and mobile sample ratio to 2 to 1. The figures released today by HKUPOP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, HKUPOP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, HKUPOP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.
Latest Figures
In the naming survey conducted from March 14 to 19, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 5 non-official Executive Councillors whom they knew best. The findings of the naming survey are summarized below, in descending order of naming rates [5]:
|
Date of survey |
1-6/9/17 |
5-6/3/18 |
2-4/10/18 |
14-19/3/19 |
Latest change
|
|
Sample size |
770 |
501 |
543 |
606 |
-- |
|
Response rate |
51.1% |
57.7% |
46.8% |
73.1% |
-- |
|
Latest findings |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error |
-- |
|
Bernard Chan |
14%{2} |
9%{2} |
11%{2} |
14+/-3%{1} |
↑1 |
|
Regina Ip |
22%{1} |
23%{1} |
18%{1} |
12+/-3%{2} |
↓1 |
|
Ronny Tong |
9%{4} |
4%{4} |
7%{3} |
3+/-1%{3} |
-- |
|
Fanny Law |
4%{5} |
6%{3} |
4%{4} |
2+/-1%{4} |
-- |
|
Joseph Yam |
9%{3} |
3%{6} |
3%{5} |
2+/-1%{5} |
-- |
|
Ip Kwok-him |
2%{7} |
1%{8} |
1%{9} |
1+/-1%{6} |
↑3 |
|
Arthur Li |
3%{6} |
3%{5} |
2%{6} |
1+/-1%{7} |
↓1 |
|
Laura Cha |
1%{8} |
1%{9} |
1%{8} |
1+/-1%{8} |
-- |
|
Jeffrey Lam |
<1%{16} |
1%{11} |
-- |
1+/-1%{9} |
-- |
|
Wong Kwok-kin |
1%{11} |
1%{12} |
-- |
1+/-1%{10} |
-- |
|
Lam Ching-choi |
<1%{15} |
-- |
<1%{11} |
1+/-1%{11} |
-- |
|
Chow Chung-kong |
1%{10} |
<1%{15} |
<1%{12} |
1+/-1%{12} |
-- |
|
Cheung Kwok-kwan |
1%{12} |
2%{7} |
<1%{13} |
<1+/-1%{13} |
-- |
|
Tommy Cheung |
1%{9} |
1%{10} |
2%{7} |
<1+/-1%{14} |
↓7 |
|
Martin Liao |
<1%{14} |
<1%{14} |
-- |
<1+/-1%{15} |
-- |
|
Kenneth Lau |
1%{13} |
<1%{13} |
1%{10} |
-- |
-- |
|
Wrong answer |
7% |
14% |
12% |
17+/-3% |
-- |
|
Don’t know/
|
65% |
65% |
68% |
70+/-4% |
-- |
[5] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
The naming survey conducted in mid-March showed that Bernard Chan and Regina Ip were named most frequently with naming rates of 14% and 12% respectively. Ronny Tong, Fanny Law and Joseph Yam came next and had naming rates of 3%, 2% and 2%. However, 17% made a wrong attempt at citing non-official Executive Councillors while 70% had no clue.
Those 6 who were named most frequently then entered the rating survey. In the rating survey conducted from April 8 to 11, respondents were asked to rate individual councillors using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 1 councillor in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 5 Executive Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 5 Executive Councillors are summarized below, in descending order of their ratings [6]:
|
Date of survey |
12-15/9/17 |
15-20/3/18 |
11-12/10/18 |
8-11/4/19 |
Latest change |
|
|
Sample size |
780-851 |
567-643 |
503 |
557-655 |
-- |
|
|
Response rate |
57.6% |
62.5% |
65.3% |
63.9% |
-- |
|
|
Latest findings |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error |
Recognition rate |
-- |
|
Joseph Yam |
57.9{1} |
58.2{1} |
54.7{1}[7] [8] |
58.1+/-1.9{1} |
87.9% |
+3.4[7] |
|
Regina Ip |
47.3{3} |
49.7{2}[7] |
46.0{3}[7] [8] |
48.3+/-2.0{2} |
96.2% |
+2.3 |
|
Ronny Tong |
49.2{2} |
49.1{3} |
46.7{2} |
45.9+/-2.4{3} |
90.1% |
-0.8 |
|
Fanny Law |
41.7{4} |
41.1{4} |
42.3{4} |
42.9+/-2.1{4} |
85.9% |
+0.6 |
|
Ip Kwok-him |
-- |
-- |
-- |
41.0+/-2.3{5} |
77.6% |
-- |
|
Bernard Chan |
50.1[9] |
49.4[9] |
49.3[9] |
52.8+/-2.1[9] |
72.1% |
+3.5[7] |
|
Arthur Li |
36.7{5}[7] |
37.8{5} |
40.4{5} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
[6] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[7] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the new weighting method was used on the previous dataset, the changes would not have gone beyond the sampling errors.
[9] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in the rating survey are not counted.
The rating survey conducted in early April showed that Joseph Yam was the most popularly supported non-official Executive Councillor, attaining 58.1 marks. The 2nd went to Regina Ip with 48.3 marks. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Ronny Tong, Fanny Law and Ip Kwok-him with 45.9, 42.9 and 41.0 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by these top 5 non-official Executive Councillors was 47.3 marks. For this latest survey, Bernard Chan obtained a support rating of 52.8 marks, but he was dropped due to his relatively low recognition rate. The overall ratings obtained over the past four surveys are tabulated as follows:
|
Date of survey |
12-15/9/17 |
15-20/3/18 |
11-12/10/18 |
8-11/4/19 |
No. of times on top 5 |
Average rating [10] |
Overall ranking [11] |
|
Joseph Yam |
57.9 |
58.2 |
54.7 |
58.1 |
4 |
57.2 |
1 |
|
Regina Ip |
47.3 |
49.7 |
46.0 |
48.3 |
4 |
47.8 |
2 |
|
Ronny Tong |
49.2 |
49.1 |
46.7 |
45.9 |
4 |
47.7 |
3 |
|
Fanny Law |
41.7 |
41.1 |
42.3 |
42.9 |
4 |
42.0 |
4 |
|
Arthur Li |
36.7 |
37.8 |
40.4 |
-- |
3 |
38.3 |
5 |
|
Ip Kwok-him |
-- |
-- |
-- |
41.0 |
1 |
41.0 |
6 |
[10] The average rating over the past four surveys.
[11] First determined by the number of times on top 5, and then the average ratings. If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
The overall rankings in the past four surveys showed that among the current non-official Executive Councillors, Joseph Yam, Regina Ip, Ronny Tong and Fanny Law have been on the list for four times, with average ratings of 57.2, 47.8, 47.7 and 42.0 marks respectively. Arthur Li has been on the list for three times with an average rating of 38.3 marks. Ip Kwok-him has been on the list once with 41.0 marks.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, HKUPOP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to HKUPOP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by HKUPOP. These daily entries would then be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by HKUPOP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 11 to 12 October, 2018 while this survey was conducted from 8 to 11 April, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
9/4/19 |
The District Court convicts the nine Occupy Movement leaders and rules that civil disobedience is not a defense. |
|
8/4/19 |
The Court of First Instance rules that building small houses through private treaty grants or land exchanges is not lawful traditional rights. |
|
6/4/19 |
The Registration and Electoral Office did not report the loss of a voter register for over two years. |
|
4/4/19 |
The Court of Final Appeal rules that using one’s own computer is not “obtaining access to a computer”. |
|
3/4/19 |
Carrie Lam says the proposed changes to the extradition bill aims to plug a legal loophole. |
|
31/3/19 |
People protest against the proposed changes to the extradition bill. |
|
19/3/19 |
Lantau Tomorrow Vision plan is estimated to cost HK$624 billion. |
|
12/3/19 |
The Hong Kong Housing Authority will offer 4,871 flats under the Home Ownership Scheme in May. |
|
11/3/19 |
The government proposes to cap the maximum usage of Elderly Health Care Vouchers on optometry services at $2,000 for every two years. |
|
20/2/19 |
The government fully endorses the land supply options proposed by the Task Force on Land Supply. |
|
13/2/19 |
The government proposes to amend legislation to impose a complete ban on e-cigarettes. |
|
12/2/19 |
The government proposes to amend legislation so that extradition requests can be handled on a one-off, case-by-case basis. |
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of HKUPOP, Frank Lee.
The latest top 5 Executive Councillors survey shows that compared to five months ago, in terms of familiarity, Ip Kwok-him has replaced Arthur Li to enter the top 5. In terms of absolute ratings, among the top 5, the ratings of Joseph Yam, Regina Ip and Fanny Law have increased while that of Ronny Tong has decreased, but only that of Joseph Yam has changed beyond sampling error. Joseph Yam is also the only councillor attaining a rating higher than 50 marks. In terms of relative rankings, Joseph Yam continues to rank first, Regina Ip and Ronny Tong swap positions to rank second and third, Fanny Law continues to rank fourth, Ip Kwok-him newly enters the list to rank fifth. It should be noted however that our top 5 list only includes councillors who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”.
Future Release (Tentative)
