HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

Press Release on April 16, 2019

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) | Detailed Findings (Popularity of Principal Officials) |

Contact Information

Date of survey	:	8-11/4/2019
Survey method	:	Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size^[1]	:	1,012 (including 668 landline and 344 mobile samples)
Effective response rate^[2]	:	63.9%
Sampling error^[3]	:	Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.2 at 95% confidence level
Weighting method^[4]	:	Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1] Starting from April 2018, POP revised the landline and mobile sample ratio to 2 to 1. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.

[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.

Latest Figures

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong today released via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data and related respondents’ demographics of the latest rating survey of CE Carrie Lam, together with those of regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung released earlier, for public examination. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	21-24/1/19	29/1-8/2/19	18-21/2/19	28/2-5/3/19	14-19/3/19	*8-11/4/19*	*Latest change*
Sample size	1,000	1,000	1,001	1,024	1,024	*1,012*	--
Response rate	59.0%	63.0%	72.1%	72.2%	73.1%	*63.9%*	--
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding & error*	--
Rating of CE Carrie Lam	45.5^[5]	47.4	50.0^[5]	50.9	52.6	*48.5+/-1.8*	*-4.1^[5]*
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam	32%^[5]	35%	38%	35%	39%	*34+/-3%*	*-5%^[5]*
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam	52%	49%	45%	51%^[5]	45%^[5]	*51+/-3%*	*+5%^[5]*
Net approval rate	-20%^[5]	-14%	-7%	-16%^[5]	-7%^[5]	*-17+/-6%*	*-10%^[5]*

[5] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	3-6/12/18	7-11/1/19	29/1-8/2/19	27/2/19	28/2-5/3/19	*8-11/4/19*	*Latest change*
Sample size^[6]	506-518	538-576	511-542	621	591-680	*634-673*	--
Response rate	54.6%	55.6%	63.0%	78.2%	72.2%	*63.9%*	--
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding & error*	--
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung	44.8	47.4	46.4	--	47.7	*45.9+/-2.1*	*-1.8*
Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung	28%	26%	27%	--	26%	*25+/-3%*	*-1%*
Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung	27%	24%	24%	--	28%	*27+/-4%*	--
Net approval rate	1%	2%	2%	--	-1%	*-2+/-6%*	*-1%*
Rating of FS Paul Chan	37.6	40.2	37.6	40.5	39.7	*38.2+/-2.1*	*-1.5*
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan	18%	22%	22%	19%	21%	*18+/-3%*	*-4%*
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan	49%	47%	48%	49%	52%	*53+/-4%*	*+1%*
Net approval rate	-31%	-25%	-26%	-31%	-30%	*-35+/-6%*	*-5%*
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng	37.1	30.4^[7]	31.3	--	34.4	*34.2+/-2.2*	*-0.2*
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng	13%	11%	13%	--	14%	*17+/-3%*	*+3%*
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng	39%	59%^[7]	51%^[7]	--	53%	*46+/-4%*	*-7%^[7]*
Net approval rate	-27%	-48%^[7]	-38%^[7]	--	-40%	*-30+/-6%*	*+10%^[7]*

[6] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. These questions only use sub-samples of the surveys concerned; the sample size for each question also varies. The survey conducted on 27/2/2019 was the Budget instant survey and only asked rating of FS as well as his vote of confidence.

[7] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates ^[8]:

Date of survey	7-11/1/19	29/1-8/2/19	28/2-5/3/19	*8-11/4/19*	*Latest change*
Sample size^[9]	561-630	566-622	582-640	*558-619*	--
Response rate	55.6%	63.0%	72.2%	*63.9%*	--
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding & error*	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan	45%	43%	48%	*48+/-4%*	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan	10%	12%	13%	*13+/-3%*	*-1%*
Net approval rate	34%	31%	35%	*36+/-6%*	*+1%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau	33%^[10]	39%^[10]	43%	*44+/-4%*	*+1%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau	13%	12%	10%	*11+/-3%*	*+1%*
Net approval rate	20%	27%^[10]	33%	*32+/-5%*	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law	37%	31%^[10]	37%^[10]	*34+/-4%*	*-3%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law	8%^[10]	15%^[10]	14%	*11+/-3%*	*-3%*
Net approval rate	29%	16%^[10]	23%	*23+/-5%*	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	27%	33%^[10]	37%	*38+/-4%*	*+1%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	25%	17%^[10]	21%	*21+/-3%*	--
Net approval rate	2%	16%^[10]	17%	*17+/-6%*	*+1%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau	17%	21%^[10]	24%	*25+/-4%*	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau	11%	10%	8%	*8+/-2%*	*-1%*
Net approval rate	6%	12%	16%	*17+/-4%*	*+1%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong	37%	27%^[10]	37%^[10]	*39+/-4%*	*+2%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong	14%	26%^[10]	21%	*22+/-3%*	*+1%*
Net approval rate	22%	1%^[10]	15%^[10]	*17+/-6%*	*+1%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong	19%	20%	25%	*25+/-3%*	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong	13%^[10]	15%	14%	*15+/-3%*	*+1%*
Net approval rate	6%	5%	10%	*9+/-5%*	*-1%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip	16%	20%	21%	*21+/-3%*	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip	14%	18%	18%	*17+/-3%*	--
Net approval rate	2%	2%	3%	*4+/-5%*	*+1%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee	27%	32%	36%	*31+/-4%*	*-5%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee	22%	17%	21%	*30+/-4%*	*+9%^[10]*
Net approval rate	5%	14%^[10]	16%	*2+/-7%*	*-14%^[10]*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang	17%^[10]	22%^[10]	24%	*24+/-4%*	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang	25%	23%	29%^[10]	*24+/-4%*	*-5%*
Net approval rate	-7%	-1%	-5%	*0+/-6%*	*+5%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung	19%	24%^[10]	25%	*25+/-4%*	*-1%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung	33%^[10]	32%	32%	*36+/-4%*	*+4%*
Net approval rate	-14%	-7%	-6%	*-11+/-6%*	*-5%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah	19%	24%	26%	*24+/-4%*	*-2%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah	42%	33%^[10]	40%^[10]	*35+/-4%*	*-4%*
Net approval rate	-23%	-9%^[10]	-14%	*-11+/-6%*	*+2%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan	21%	22%	27%^[10]	*24+/-4%*	*-3%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan	41%	36%	38%	*36+/-4%*	*-1%*
Net approval rate	-19%	-14%	-10%	*-12+/-6%*	*-2%*

[8] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[9] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. These questions only use sub-samples of the surveys concerned; the sample size for each question also varies.

[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

The latest survey showed that CE Carrie Lam scored 48.5 marks, and 34% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is negative 17 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Matthew Cheung, FS Paul Chan and SJ Teresa Cheng were 45.9, 38.2 and 34.2 marks, while 25%, 18% and 17% would vote for their reappointments correspondingly. Their net approval rates are negative 2, negative 35 and negative 30 percentage points respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, attaining positive 36 percentage points. The 2nd place belongs to Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau with a net approval rate of positive 32 percentage points. Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Security John Lee, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah and Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan ranked 3rd to 13th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 23, positive 17, positive 17, positive 17, positive 9, positive 4, positive 2, 0, negative 11, negative 11 and negative 12 percentage points. In other words, no Director scored a net approval rate of over 50%.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 28 February to 5 March, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 8 to 11 April, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

9/4/19	The District Court convicts the nine Occupy Movement leaders and rules that civil disobedience is not a defence.
8/4/19	The Court of First Instance rules that building small houses through private treaty grants or land exchanges is not lawful traditional rights.
6/4/19	The Registration and Electoral Office did not report the loss of a voter register for over two years.
4/4/19	Members of the Real Estate Developers Association will sell 20 percent of flats in new non-luxury projects on the open market.
4/4/19	The Court of Final Appeal rules that using one’s own computer is not “obtaining access to a computer”.
3/4/19	Carrie Lam says the proposed changes to the extradition bill aims to plug a legal loophole.
31/3/19	People protest against the proposed changes to the extradition bill.
19/3/19	Lantau Tomorrow Vision plan is estimated to cost HK$624 billion.
18/3/19	Two MTR trains collide during the testing of a new signalling system on the Tsuen Wan Line.
11/3/19	The government proposes to cap the maximum usage of Elderly Health Care Vouchers on optometry services at $2,000 for every two years.
2/3/19	The second session of the 13th Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference begins.
1/3/19	The central government introduces eight policy measures for Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.

Online Opinion Analysis

In 2017, POP started collaborating with uMax Data Technology Limited to conduct “Online Opinion Analysis”. uMax Data would provide technical support concerning social big data to track posts in Facebook pages and various major forums in Hong Kong that mentioned specific political figures or organizations. When public opinion changes very significantly, POP will summarize the popular online posts about the specific political figures or organizations between the two surveys and compile a list of related events. Readers could make their own judgment if the events listed have impact on the related public opinion figures.

Since the latest survey findings reveal that the net approval rate of CE Carrie Lam has changed significantly compared to the figure recorded in the last survey, POP conducted “Online Opinion Analysis” to identify the top ten most discussed issues on the internet. The list of most discussed items after eliminating duplications is as follows:

Carrie Lam allegedly refused to shake hands with Wang Zhimin, Director of the Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government in Hong Kong.

Netizens discussed the proposed amendments to the extradition bill.

The Democratic Party urged Carrie Lam to step down because of her proposal to amend the extradition bill.

Carrie Lam explained it would take time to handle the applications received for the Caring and Sharing Scheme.

Carrie Lam said the Greater Bay Area could become the Wall Street and Silicon Valley of the East.

Carrie Lam said it was worrying that housing price rebounded.

The results show that online public opinion had been discussing various issues. Whether or not these items could sufficiently explain the changes in CE popularity ratings, readers could form their own judgment.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 48.5 marks, significantly decreased by 4.1 marks compared to three weeks ago. Her approval rate is 34%, disapproval rate 51%, giving a net popularity of negative 17 percentage points, also a significant drop of 10 percentage points.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 45.9 marks, approval rate 25%, disapproval rate 27%, giving a net popularity of negative 2 percentage points, registering another record low since last month. The latest support rating of FS Paul Chan is 38.2 marks, approval rate 18%, disapproval rate 53%, thus a net popularity of negative 35 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 34.2 marks, approval rate 17%, disapproval rate 46%, giving a net popularity of negative 30 percentage points, registering a significant increase of 10 percentage points compared to a month ago. In terms of popularity rating and net approval rate, Matthew Cheung continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of 7 among 13 Directors have gone up, 4 have gone down while 2 remained unchanged. Among them, only the net approval rate of Secretary for Security John Lee has changed significantly, which dropped by 14 percentage points to positive 2 and is at his record low since he took office. Among all the Directors, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah and Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan register negative popularities, at negative 11, negative 11 and negative 12 percentage points respectively. Sophia Chan continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 36 percentage points.

According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Edward Yau, Law Chi-kwong, Wong Kam-sing, John Lee, Matthew Cheung, Kevin Yeung, Frank Chan, Lau Kong-wah and Teresa Cheng can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Joshua Law, James Lau, Michael Wong, Nicholas Yang and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Paul Chan and Carrie Lam fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials for readers’ easy reference:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets^[11]

“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets^[11]

“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets^[11]

Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (48%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (44%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (39%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (38%); Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (31%); CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (25%); Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (25%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (24%); Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (24%); SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (17%)

“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates ^[11]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law Chi-kong (34%, 45%); Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Henry Lau Jr (25%, 32%); Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (25%, 40%); Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (24%, 48%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (21%, 39%)

“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets^[11]

FS Paul Chan Mo-po (53%); CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (51%)

“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets^[11]

[11] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Future Release (Tentative)

April 23, 2019 (Tuesday) 12pm to 2pm: Ratings of Top 5 Executive Councillors

Reference – Technical Notes of “Online Opinion Analysis”

Technically, POP research team firstly determines and inputs related keywords to be searched on the platform provided by uMax Data. POP then selects targeted online platforms to be monitored (currently selected: Facebook and forums), and extract the top five most discussed items on each online platform, thus come up with a list of 10 items in total. By eliminating duplications in the top ten items, POP compiles a table which is included in the press release for readers’ reference.