HKU POP releases ratings of the top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack
Press Release on April 9, 2019
| Detailed Findings Rating of Top Ten Legislative Councillors|
Contact Information
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Date of survey |
: |
28/2-5/3/2019 (Naming stage)
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Survey method |
: |
Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
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Target population |
: |
Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
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Sample size[1] |
: |
1,024 (Naming stage; including 686 landline and 338
mobile samples)
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Effective response rate[2] |
: |
72.2% (Naming stage)
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Sampling error[3] |
: |
Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.4 at 95% confidence level |
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Weighting method[4] |
: |
Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] Starting from April 2018, POP revised the landline and mobile sample ratio to 2 to 1. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.
Latest Figures
In the naming survey conducted from February 28 to March 5, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 councillors whom they knew best. Starry Lee, Regina Ip, Claudia Mo, Alvin Yeung and Tanya Chan were the top 5 councillors mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered the rating survey. In the rating survey conducted from March 14 to 19, respondents were asked to rate individual councillors using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 councillors in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. Recent ratings of the top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below, in descending order of net approval ratings [5]:
|
Date of survey |
1-6/3/18 |
3-5/7/18 |
1-6/11/18 |
14-19/3/19 |
Latest change |
|
|
Sample size[6] |
562-682 |
525-575 |
520-555 |
582-697 |
-- |
|
|
Response rate |
64.7% |
49.5% |
58.9% |
73.1% |
-- |
|
|
Latest findings |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error |
Recognition rate |
-- |
|
Michael Tien |
56.8{1} |
57.7{1} |
57.0{1} |
55.1+/-1.6{1} |
93.2% |
-1.9 |
|
James To |
48.9{4}[7] |
51.3{2} |
52.4{2} |
52.1+/-1.9{2} |
86.0% |
-0.3 |
|
Eddie Chu |
51.2{3}[7] |
49.5{5} |
50.7[8] |
48.7+/-2.4{3} |
85.1% |
-2.0 |
|
Regina Ip |
51.4{2} |
50.0{4} |
48.4{4} |
48.3+/-2.1{4} |
93.0% |
-0.1 |
|
Tanya Chan |
46.8{6} |
50.2{3}[7] |
49.4{3} |
47.4+/-2.2{5} |
84.5% |
-1.9 |
|
Paul Tse |
46.7{7} |
-- |
44.1{7} |
45.5+/-1.7{6} |
88.1% |
+1.4 |
|
Claudia Mo |
46.4{8} |
48.2{6} |
45.3{6} |
44.5+/-2.0{7} |
86.2% |
-0.8 |
|
Starry Lee |
47.6{5} |
45.9{7} |
43.1{8} |
43.4+/-2.4{8} |
84.3% |
+0.3 |
|
Priscilla Leung |
40.2{9}[7] |
41.6{9} |
36.6{9}[7] |
38.9+/-2.2{9} |
78.0% |
+2.3 |
|
Holden Chow |
-- |
-- |
-- |
35.5+/-2.3{10} |
74.0% |
-- |
|
Alvin Yeung |
51.1[8] |
52.2[8] |
52.2[8] |
49.4+/-2.2[8] |
70.0% |
-2.8 |
|
Raymond Chan |
42.9[8] |
46.3[8] |
-- |
44.5+/-2.2[8] |
71.6% |
-- |
|
Leung Yiu-chung |
-- |
-- |
46.8{5} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Chiang Lai-wan |
36.8{10}[7] |
37.9{10} |
33.6{10}[7] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Andrew Leung |
-- |
43.4{8} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
[5] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[6] These questions only use sub-samples of the surveys concerned.
[7] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[8] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in the rating survey are not counted.
The latest survey showed that Michael Tien was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 55.1 marks. James To, Eddie Chu and Regina Ip ranked the 2nd to 4th with 52.1, 48.7 and 48.3 marks correspondingly. The 5th to 8th ranks went to Tanya Chan, Paul Tse, Claudia Mo and Starry Lee who attained 47.4, 45.5, 44.5 and 43.4 marks respectively. Priscilla Leung and Holden Chow ranked the 9th to 10th, attaining 38.9 and 35.5 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 50.3 marks, while that for the top 10 was 45.9 marks. For this latest survey, Alvin Yeung and Raymond Chan obtained support ratings of 49.4 and 44.5 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past four surveys are tabulated as follows:
|
Date of survey |
1-6/3/18 |
3-5/7/18 |
1-6/11/18 |
14-19/3/19 |
No. of times on top 10 |
Average rating [9] |
Overall ranking [10] |
|
Michael Tien |
56.8 |
57.7 |
57.0 |
55.1 |
4 |
56.6 |
1 |
|
James To |
48.9 |
51.3 |
52.4 |
52.1 |
4 |
51.2 |
2 |
|
Regina Ip |
51.4 |
50.0 |
48.4 |
48.3 |
4 |
49.5 |
3 |
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Tanya Chan |
46.8 |
50.2 |
49.4 |
47.4 |
4 |
48.5 |
4 |
|
Claudia Mo |
46.4 |
48.2 |
45.3 |
44.5 |
4 |
46.1 |
5 |
|
Starry Lee |
47.6 |
45.9 |
43.1 |
43.4 |
4 |
45.0 |
6 |
|
Priscilla Leung |
40.2 |
41.6 |
36.6 |
38.9 |
4 |
39.4 |
7 |
|
Eddie Chu |
51.2 |
49.5 |
-- |
48.7 |
3 |
49.8 |
8 |
|
Paul Tse |
46.7 |
-- |
44.1 |
45.5 |
3 |
45.5 |
9 |
|
Chiang Lai-wan |
36.8 |
37.9 |
33.6 |
-- |
3 |
36.1 |
10 |
|
Leung Yiu-chung |
-- |
-- |
46.8 |
-- |
1 |
46.8 |
11 |
|
Andrew Leung |
-- |
43.4 |
-- |
-- |
1 |
43.4 |
12 |
|
Holden Chow |
-- |
-- |
-- |
35.5 |
1 |
35.5 |
13 |
[9] The average rating over the past four surveys.
[10] First determined by the number of times on top 10, and then the average ratings. If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
The overall rankings in the past four surveys showed that seven Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Michael Tien at the top rank achieving an average rating of 56.6 marks, James To, Regina Ip, Tanya Chan, Claudia Mo, Starry Lee and Priscilla Leung who ranked the 2nd to 7th and attained 51.2, 49.5, 48.5, 46.1, 45.0 and 39.4 marks correspondingly. Eddie Chu, Paul Tse and Chiang Lai-wan have been on the list for three times and ranked the 8th to 10th with 49.8, 45.5 and 36.1 marks correspondingly. Leung Yiu-chung, Andrew Leung and Holden Chow have been on the list once and ranked the 11th to 13th with 46.8, 43.4 and 35.5 marks correspondingly.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 1 to 6 November, 2018 while this survey was conducted from 14 to 19 March, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
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19/3/19 |
Lantau Tomorrow Vision plan is estimated to cost HK$624 billion. |
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18/3/19 |
Two MTR trains collide during the testing of a new signalling system on the Tsuen Wan Line. |
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11/3/19 |
The government proposes to cap the maximum usage of Elderly Health Care Vouchers on optometry services at $2,000 for every two years. |
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2/3/19 |
The second session of the 13th Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference begins. |
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1/3/19 |
The central government introduces eight policy measures for Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. |
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27/2/19 |
Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the Budget. |
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26/2/19 |
The central government sends a letter to the Chief Executive on the SAR government’s ban on the Hong Kong National Party. |
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20/2/19 |
The government fully endorses the land supply options proposed by the Task Force on Land Supply. |
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13/2/19 |
The government proposes to amend legislation to impose a complete ban on e-cigarettes. |
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12/2/19 |
The government proposes to amend legislation so that extradition requests can be handled on a one-off, case-by-case basis. |
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30/1/19 |
More problems about the construction of the Hung Hom Station at the Shatin to Central Link are discovered and inspection documents are found missing. |
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29/1/19 |
The government announces $500 million has been reserved for the Hospital Authority to cope with the flu season. |
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22/1/19 |
The government withdraws the motion in support of the cross-harbour tunnel toll adjustment plan. |
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18/1/19 |
The government announces a new Employment Support Supplement under the CSSA scheme. |
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10/1/19 |
The Government will raise the eligible age for elderly CSSA from 60 to 65, which leads to criticisms. |
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9/1/19 |
The National Anthem Bill will be tabled in the Legislative Council on January 23. |
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Tai.
The latest survey of the top 10 Legislative Councillors shows that compared to four months ago, in terms of familiarity, Eddie Chu and Holden Chow have replaced Leung Yiu-chung and Chiang Lai-wan to enter the “top 10” list. In terms of absolute ratings, out of the 9 Councillors in the “top 10” list who were also rated last time, 3 have gone up while the remaining 6 have gone down, but none of the changes has gone beyond sampling errors. In terms of relative rankings, Michael Tien continues to rank first for the fifth time consecutively since November 2017. James To remains in the same position and ranks second. Eddie Chu re-enters the list to rank third. Regina Ip remains in the same position and ranks fourth. Tanya Chan goes down two positions to rank fifth. Paul Tse goes up one position to rank sixth. Claudia Mo goes down one position to rank seventh. Starry Lee and Priscilla Leung remain in the same positions and rank eighth and ninth. Holden Chow re-enters the list to rank tenth. It should be noted however that our list of “top 10” only includes LegCo members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the “top 10” list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”.
Future Release (Tentative)
