HKU POP releases the trust and confidence indicatorsBack
Press Release on March 19, 2019
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the Beijing Central Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the Taiwan Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in HK's Future) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in China's Future) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Confidence in "One Country, Two Systems") |
Contact Information
|
Date of survey |
: |
28/2-5/3/2019 |
|
Survey method |
: |
Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers (including landline and mobile numbers) |
|
Target population |
: |
Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
|
Sample size[1] |
: |
1,024 (including 686 landline and 338 mobile samples) |
|
Effective response rate[2] |
: |
72.2% |
|
Sampling error[3] |
: |
Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and that of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level |
|
Weighting method[4] |
: |
Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] Starting from April 2018, POP revised the landline and mobile sample ratio to 2 to 1. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.
Latest Figures
Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments and people’s confidence in the future as well as “one country, two systems” are summarized below:
|
Date of survey |
18-23/7/18 |
3-6/9/18 |
15-19/11/18 |
21-24/1/19 |
28/2-5/3/19 |
Latest change |
|
Sample size[5] |
595 |
515 |
553 |
532 |
639 |
-- |
|
Response rate |
49.0% |
50.4% |
67.9% |
59.0% |
72.2% |
-- |
|
Latest findings |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error |
-- |
|
Trust in HKSAR Government[7] |
46% |
51% |
45%[8] |
44% |
34+/-4% |
-9%[8] |
|
Distrust in HKSAR Government[7] |
37% |
36% |
39% |
37% |
46+/-4% |
+9%[8] |
|
Net trust |
9% |
15% |
6% |
7% |
-12+/-7% |
-19%[8] |
|
Mean value[7] |
3.0 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
2.7+/-0.1 |
-0.3[8] |
|
Date of survey |
1-6/9/17 |
3-4/1/18 |
21-25/5/18 |
3-6/9/18 |
28/2-5/3/19 |
Latest change |
|
Sample size[5] |
717-798[6] |
548-632 |
513-555 |
515-538 |
613-674 |
-- |
|
Response rate |
51.0% |
58.3% |
55.9% |
50.4% |
72.2% |
-- |
|
Latest findings |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error |
-- |
|
Trust in Beijing Government[7] |
36% |
38% |
34% |
40%[8] [9] |
33+/-4% |
-7%[8] |
|
Distrust in Beijing Government[7] |
45%[8] |
45% |
48% |
40%[8] |
48+/-4% |
+7%[8] |
|
Net trust |
-9%[8] |
-7% |
-14% |
0%[8] |
-15+/-7% |
-15%[8] |
|
Mean value[7] |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
2.9[8] |
2.7+/-0.1 |
-0.2[8] |
|
Trust in Taiwan Government[7] |
17% |
17% |
17% |
22% |
23+/-3% |
+2% |
|
Distrust in Taiwan Government[7] |
41% |
41% |
50%[8] |
45% |
40+/-4% |
-5% |
|
Net trust |
-24% |
-25% |
-33%[8] |
-23%[8] [9] |
-17+/-6% |
+6% |
|
Mean value[7] |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.5[8] [9] |
2.6+/-0.1 |
+0.1 |
|
Confidence in HK’s future |
55%[8] |
51% |
46%[8] |
46% |
39+/-4% |
-7%[8] |
|
No-confidence in HK’s future |
39% |
43% |
48%[8] |
47% |
55+/-4% |
+8%[8] |
|
Net confidence |
17%[8] |
8%[8] |
-2%[8] |
-1% |
-16+/-8% |
-15%[8] |
|
Confidence in China’s future |
65%[8] |
70%[8] |
61%[8] |
62% |
62+/-4% |
-- |
|
No-confidence in China’s future |
27% |
25% |
31%[8] |
31% |
32+/-4% |
-- |
|
Net confidence |
37%[8] |
45%[8] |
30%[8] |
30% |
30+/-7% |
-- |
|
Confidence in “one country,
|
49% |
47% |
40%[8] |
45% |
41+/-4% |
-4% |
|
No-confidence in “one country,
|
46% |
47% |
54%[8] |
49% |
55+/-4% |
+6%[8] |
|
Net confidence |
3% |
0% |
-14%[8] |
-4% |
-14+/-8% |
-10% |
[5] These questions only use sub-samples of the surveys concerned; the sample size for each question also varies.
[6] The mobile sample was not included when survey results were released. The figures in the table above have been updated to reflect the results based on the combined landline and mobile sample. However, whether changes have gone beyond sampling errors is still determined based on the figures in the first release.
[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. From October to December 2018, POP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit the POP Site for details.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the changes would not have gone beyond the sampling errors.
Latest survey revealed that 34% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 33% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 23% trusted the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are negative 12, negative 15 and negative 17 percentage points, while the mean scores of these trust indicators are 2.7, 2.7 and 2.6 respectively, meaning between “half-half” and “quite distrust” in general. On the other hand, 39% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong’s future, 62% had confidence in China’s future, while 41% of the respondents were confident in “one country, two systems”. The three net confidence values are negative 16, positive 30 and negative 14 percentage points respectively.
Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or above. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ trust in Beijing Central Government, confidence in Hong Kong’s future and “one country, two systems” by age:
|
Date of survey: 28/2-5/3/2019 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Percentage of trust /
|
Trust |
21+/-8%
|
26+/-6%
|
40+/-5%
|
32+/-4%
|
|
Half-half |
16+/-7%
|
18+/-5%
|
16+/-4%
|
17+/-3%
|
|
|
Distrust |
62+/-9%
|
56+/-7%
|
38+/-5%
|
48+/-4%
|
|
|
Don’t know /
|
1+/-1%
|
--
|
5+/-2%
|
3+/-1%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
|
Date of survey: 28/2-5/3/2019 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Percentage of confidence / no-confidence
|
Confidence |
25+/-9%
|
34+/-7%
|
47+/-6%
|
39+/-4%
|
|
No-confidence |
70+/-9%
|
61+/-7%
|
48+/-6%
|
56+/-4%
|
|
|
Don’t know /
|
5+/-4%
|
6+/-3%
|
5+/-3%
|
5+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
|
Date of survey: 28/2-5/3/2019 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Percentage of confidence / no-confidence
|
Confidence |
23+/-8%
|
36+/-7%
|
51+/-6%
|
41+/-4%
|
|
No-confidence |
75+/-8%
|
61+/-7%
|
45+/-6%
|
55+/-4%
|
|
|
Don’t know /
|
2+/-2%
|
3+/-2%
|
4+/-2%
|
3+/-1%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 6 September, 2018 while this survey was conducted from 28 February to 5 March, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
5/3/19 |
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivers the government work report 2019. |
|
2/3/19 |
The second session of the 13th Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference begins. |
|
1/3/19 |
The central government introduces eight policy measures for Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. |
|
26/2/19 |
The central government sends a letter to the Chief Executive on the SAR government’s ban on the Hong Kong National Party. |
|
25/2/19 |
Donald Trump announces a delay in the deadline to increase tariffs on Chinese goods. |
|
20/2/19 |
The government fully endorses the land supply options proposed by the Task Force on Land Supply. |
|
18/2/19 |
The outline development plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is announced by the central government. |
|
16/2/19 |
A cable on the Shenzhen Bay Bridge is found to have snapped. |
|
12/2/19 |
The government proposes to amend legislation so that extradition requests can be handled on a one-off, case-by-case basis. |
|
30/1/19 |
More problems about the construction of the Hung Hom Station at the Shatin to Central Link are discovered and inspection documents are found missing. |
|
29/1/19 |
U.S. files charges against Huawei and Meng Wanzhou and requests extradition from Canada. |
|
26/1/19 |
Public sector doctors gather to voice their grievances over staff shortages. |
|
21/1/19 |
China’s economy grows 6.6% last year, a record low in 28 years. |
|
9/1/19 |
The National Anthem Bill will be tabled in the Legislative Council on January 23. |
|
2/1/19 |
Xi Jinping says Taiwan must be unified with China during a meeting to commemorate the 40th anniversary of the “Message to Compatriots in Taiwan”. |
|
24/11/18 |
Kuomintang wins 15 seats in mayoral and magisterial elections. |
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Tai.
Our latest survey shows that Hong Kong people’s net trust in the local government has dropped by 19 percentage points to negative 12 percentage points since two months ago. People’s net trust in the Central Government has also dropped by 15 percentage points to negative 15 percentage points since half a year ago. Both figures are at their record low since Carrie Lam became CE. Meanwhile, Hong Kong people’s net trust in the Taiwan Government has slightly gone up by 6 percentage points, and its latest figure is negative 17 percentage points.
As for the confidence indicators, people’s confidence in the future of China remains the highest among the three, the latest net confidence being positive 30 percentage points. People’s net confidence in the future of Hong Kong has plunged by 15 percentage points to negative 16 percentage points, a record low since the question was first asked in 1994. That in “one country, two systems” has also dropped by 10 percentage points to negative 14 percentage points. Further analysis shows that the younger the respondent, the less one trusts the Central Government and the less confident in Hong Kong’s future and “one country, two systems”. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”.
Future Release (Tentative)
