HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack
Press Release on February 26, 2019
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with Current Political, Economic and livelihood conditions) |
Special Announcement
As in previous years, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong will conduct an instant survey after the Financial Secretary delivers his Budget Speech tomorrow (February 27, 2019, Wednesday). The same survey method as that used for the Policy Address instant survey last October will be adopted, meaning that other than using landline and mobile samples, “panel samples” from pre-selected random samples who have agreed to be re-interviewed on the survey day would be added. The ratio of the three samples is tentatively 2:1:3. The results will be first released via media sponsor(s) for public consumption, at around 10 pm, including people’s satisfaction rate and rating towards the Budget. Then they will be released to all via our “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) at noon the following day (February 28). Media interested in sponsoring this survey are welcome to contact POP.
Contact Information
|
Date of survey |
: |
18-21/2/2019 |
|
Survey method |
: |
Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers (including landline and mobile numbers) |
|
Target population |
: |
Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
|
Sample size[1] |
: |
1,001 |
|
Effective response rate[2] |
: |
72.1% |
|
Sampling error[3] |
: |
Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-1.7 at 95% confidence level |
|
Weighting method[4] |
: |
Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] Starting from April 2018, POP revised the landline and mobile sample ratio to 2 to 1. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.
Latest Figures
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP today released via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data and related respondents’ demographics of the latest rating survey of CE Carrie Lam, together with those of regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung released earlier, for public examination. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
3-6/12/18 |
17-20/12/18 |
7-11/1/19 |
21-24/1/19 |
29/1-8/2/19 |
18-21/2/19 |
Latest change |
|
Sample size |
1,005 |
1,000 |
1,007 |
1,000 |
1,000 |
1,001 |
-- |
|
Response rate |
54.6% |
60.6% |
55.6% |
59.0% |
63.0% |
72.1% |
-- |
|
Latest findings |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error |
-- |
|
Rating of CE Carrie Lam |
50.2 |
56.4[5] |
50.9[5] |
45.5[5] |
47.4 |
50.0+/-1.7 |
+2.6[5] |
|
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
39% |
49%[5] |
37%[5] |
32%[5] |
35% |
38+/-3% |
+3% |
|
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
47% |
39%[5] |
48%[5] |
52% |
49% |
45+/-3% |
-3% |
|
Net approval rate |
-7% |
10%[5] |
-11%[5] |
-20%[5] |
-14% |
-7+/-6% |
+6% |
[5] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
The latest survey showed that CE Carrie Lam scored 50.0 marks, and 38% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is negative 7 percentage points.
Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government as well as people’s appraisal of society's conditions are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
18-20/9/18 |
22-24/10/18 |
15-19/11/18 |
17-20/12/18 |
21-24/1/19 |
18-21/2/19 |
Latest change |
|
Sample size[6] |
1,002 |
1,006 |
1,000 |
1,000 |
1,000 |
1,001 |
-- |
|
Response rate |
55.6% |
63.4% |
67.9% |
60.6% |
59.0% |
72.1% |
-- |
|
Latest findings |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error |
-- |
|
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[7] |
37% |
37% |
35% |
42%[8] |
27%[8] |
29+/-4% |
+3% |
|
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[7] |
45% |
42% |
46% |
36%[8] |
49%[8] |
46+/-4% |
-3% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-8% |
-4% |
-11% |
5%[8] |
-23%[8] |
-17+/-7% |
+6% |
|
Mean value[7] |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
3.0[8] |
2.5[8] |
2.6+/-0.1 |
+0.1 |
|
Current economic condition:
|
40% |
33%[8] |
37%[8] |
40% |
31%[8] |
36+/-3% |
+5%[8] |
|
Current economic condition:
|
37%[8] |
42%[8] |
39% |
32%[8] |
41%[8] |
37+/-3% |
-4% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
2% |
-9%[8] |
-2% |
8%[8] |
-10%[8] |
-1+/-5% |
+9%[8] |
|
Mean value[7] |
2.9 |
2.8[8] |
2.9 |
3.0[8] |
2.8[8] |
2.9+/-0.1 |
+0.1[8] |
|
Current livelihood condition:
|
30% |
27% |
25% |
30%[8] |
21%[8] |
24+/-3% |
+3% |
|
Current livelihood condition:
|
50% |
52% |
53% |
46%[8] |
56%[8] |
55+/-3% |
-1% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-20% |
-25% |
-28% |
-16%[8] |
-34%[8] |
-31+/-5% |
+3% |
|
Mean value[7] |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.7[8] |
2.4[8] |
2.4+/-0.1 |
-- |
|
Current political condition:
|
21%[8] |
18% |
19% |
20% |
18% |
17+/-2% |
-2% |
|
Current political condition:
|
57%[8] |
59% |
58% |
56% |
62%[8] |
61+/-3% |
-1% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-37%[8] |
-41% |
-39% |
-36% |
-43%[8] |
-44+/-5% |
-1% |
|
Mean value[7] |
2.3[8] |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
2.2[8] |
2.2+/-0.1 |
-- |
[6] The question on the satisfaction of SARG performance only uses sub-samples of the surveys concerned. The sub-sample size for this survey is 639.
[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. From October to December 2018, POP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit the POP Site for details.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 29% were satisfied, whereas 46% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 17 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, which is between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general. As for people’s satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates were 36%, 24% and 17% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were negative 1, negative 31 and negative 44 percentage points. The mean scores of the economic, livelihood and political conditions were 2.9, 2.4 and 2.2, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general.
Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age and education attainment. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rating and support rate of Carrie Lam as Chief Executive by respondents’ age and education attainment, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:
|
Date of survey: 18-21/2/2019 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Rating of CE Carrie Lam[9] |
37.4+/-3.7
|
49.1+/-2.7
|
54.8+/-2.5
|
49.9+/-1.7
|
|
|
Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[9] |
Support |
23+/-6%
|
40+/-5%
|
43+/-5%
|
38+/-3%
|
|
Oppose |
67+/-7%
|
47+/-5%
|
37+/-4%
|
46+/-3%
|
|
|
Don’t know / Hard to say |
10+/-5%
|
13+/-4%
|
20+/-4%
|
16+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[9] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
|
Date of survey: 18-21/2/2019 |
Primary or below |
Secondary |
Tertiary or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Rating of CE Carrie Lam[9] |
58.2+/-3.7
|
50.3+/-2.5
|
45.1+/-2.8
|
50.0+/-1.7
|
|
|
Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[10] |
Support |
44+/-7%
|
42+/-5%
|
29+/-5%
|
38+/-3%
|
|
Oppose |
35+/-7%
|
42+/-5%
|
56+/-6%
|
46+/-3%
|
|
|
Don’t know / Hard to say |
21+/-6%
|
15+/-3%
|
14+/-4%
|
16+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 21 to 24 January, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 18 to 21 February, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
20/2/19 |
The government fully endorses the land supply options proposed by the Task Force on Land Supply. |
|
18/2/19 |
The outline development plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is announced by the central government. |
|
16/2/19 |
A cable on the Shenzhen Bay Bridge is found to have snapped. |
|
13/2/19 |
The government proposes to amend legislation to impose a complete ban on e-cigarettes. |
|
12/2/19 |
The government proposes to amend legislation so that extradition requests can be handled on a one-off, case-by-case basis. |
|
30/1/19 |
More problems about the construction of the Hung Hom Station at the Shatin to Central Link are discovered and inspection documents are found missing. |
|
29/1/19 |
The government announces $500 million has been reserved for the Hospital Authority to cope with the flu season. |
|
26/1/19 |
Public sector doctors gather to voice their grievances over staff shortages. |
|
24/1/19 |
Due to severe outbreak of influenza, the government announces early Chinese New Year holidays for kindergartens. |
|
22/1/19 |
The government withdraws the motion in support of the cross-harbour tunnel toll adjustment plan. |
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam continued to recover. Compared with two weeks ago, her popularity rating significantly increases by 2.6 marks to 50.0. Her latest approval rate is 38%, disapproval rate 45%, giving a net popularity of negative 7 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE in terms of both support rate and rating.
As for the SAR Government, its popularity has slightly recovered over the past month. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 29%, dissatisfaction rate 46%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 17 percentage points, but changes registered are within sampling errors. As for the society’s appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are negative 1, negative 31 and negative 44 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”.
Future Releases (Tentative)
