HKU POP releases the rankings of people’s most familiar political figuresBack
Press Release on Februrary 19, 2019
| Detailed Findings (People's Most Familiar Political Figures)
Contact Information
|
Date of survey |
: |
29/1-8/2/2019 |
|
Survey method |
: |
Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
|
Target population |
: |
Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
|
Sample size[1] |
: |
1,000 |
|
Effective response rate[2] |
: |
63.0% |
|
Sampling error[3] |
: |
Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level |
|
Weighting method[4] |
: |
Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] Starting from April 2018, POP revised the landline and mobile sample ratio to 2 to 1. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.
Latest Figures
This survey series on people’s most familiar political figures records and analyzes the naming results by the people. Each survey would return people’s most familiar political figures ranked from 1 to 50, as well as average accumulative rankings calculated from the past 10 surveys spanning over about five years, in order to indicate the ups-and-downs of these political figures in the long run. Herewith the result of our latest survey on “people’s most familiar political figures”, other rankings beyond the top 10 can be found in the POP Site: [5]
|
Date of survey |
16-19/10/17 |
16-19/4/18 |
18-20/9/18 |
29/1-8/2/2019 |
Average rank over the past 10 surveys[7] |
||||
|
Sample size[6] |
656 |
615 |
552 |
537 |
-- |
||||
|
Response rate |
64.5% |
56.4% |
55.6% |
63.0% |
-- |
||||
|
Latest findings |
% |
Rank |
% |
Rank |
% |
Rank |
% |
Rank |
-- |
|
Carrie Lam |
44% |
1 |
46% |
1 |
38% |
1 |
35+/-4% |
1 |
2.0 |
|
Donald Tsang |
24% |
3 |
27% |
2 |
28% |
2 |
33+/-4% |
2 |
4.6 |
|
Tung Chee-hwa |
19% |
6 |
25% |
4 |
23% |
4 |
29+/-4% |
3 |
5.7 |
|
Leung Chun-ying |
25% |
2 |
26% |
3 |
26% |
3 |
26+/-4% |
4 |
1.8 |
|
Martin Lee |
12% |
9 |
14% |
10 |
18% |
6 |
14+/-3% |
5 |
11.6 |
|
John Tsang |
21% |
5 |
18% |
8 |
13% |
9 |
14+/-3% |
6 |
7.6 |
|
Regina Ip |
17% |
7 |
21% |
6 |
15% |
8 |
13+/-3% |
7 |
6.3 |
|
Leung Kwok-hung |
24% |
4 |
23% |
5 |
19% |
5 |
12+/-3% |
8 |
4.3 |
|
Anson Chan |
8% |
15 |
9% |
14 |
8% |
14 |
11+/-3% |
9 |
11.9 |
|
Paul Chan |
9% |
14 |
20% |
7 |
9% |
12 |
11+/-3% |
10 |
19.6 |
[5] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.
[6] This question only uses sub-samples of the surveys concerned.
[7] The earliest of the past 10 surveys was conducted from October 31 to November 5, 2014. For each survey, those who ranked 50th or beyond and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average ranks.
In our naming survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Carrie Lam was the top with 35% of respondents naming her. Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa and Leung Chun-ying occupied the 2nd to 4th places, with 33%, 29% and 26% of respondents naming them respectively. The 5th to 10th ranks fell to Martin Lee, John Tsang, Regina Ip, Leung Kwok-hung, Anson Chan and Paul Chan respectively, and percentages of respondents who named them were 14%, 14%, 13%, 12%, 11% and 11%. Please refer to the relevant table in the POP Site for the rest of the list. For easy reference, the results of all naming surveys conducted since March 1997 have already been uploaded.
Herewith some of the results of our “people’s most familiar political figures” surveys accumulated over past 10 surveys spanning over about five years:
|
Overall rank |
22-30/4/2014──18-20/9/2018 |
31/10-5/11/2014──29/1-8/2/2019 |
||
|
Political figures |
Average rank
|
Political figures |
Average rank
|
|
|
1 |
Leung Chun-ying |
1.7 |
Leung Chun-ying |
1.8 |
|
2 |
Carrie Lam |
2.6 |
Carrie Lam |
2.0 |
|
3 |
Leung Kwok-hung |
3.6 |
Leung Kwok-hung |
4.3 |
|
4 |
Donald Tsang |
4.8 |
Donald Tsang |
4.6 |
|
5 |
Tung Chee-hwa |
6.0 |
Tung Chee-hwa |
5.7 |
|
6 |
Regina Ip |
6.1 |
Regina Ip |
6.3 |
|
7 |
Jasper Tsang |
6.5 |
Jasper Tsang |
6.9 |
|
8 |
John Tsang |
8.2 |
John Tsang |
7.6 |
|
9 |
Anson Chan |
11.2 |
Martin Lee |
11.6 |
|
10 |
Wong Yuk-man |
11.6 |
Anson Chan |
11.9 |
|
11 |
Martin Lee |
11.9 |
Wong Yuk-man |
12.3 |
|
12 |
Henry Tang |
17.0 |
Henry Tang |
16.8 |
|
13 |
Emily Lau |
17.2 |
Emily Lau |
18.0 |
|
14 |
Rita Fan |
17.4 |
Rita Fan |
18.3 |
|
15 |
Michael Tien |
18.0 |
Michael Tien |
18.4 |
|
16 |
James Tien |
19.2 |
Starry Lee |
19.4 |
|
17 |
Alan Leong |
19.5 |
Paul Chan |
19.6 |
|
18 |
Albert Ho |
20.1 |
James Tien |
19.7 |
|
19 |
Starry Lee |
21.6 |
Alan Leong |
21.1 |
|
20 |
Paul Chan |
21.7 |
Albert Ho |
21.5 |
[8] For each survey, those who ranked 50th or beyond and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average ranks.
Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Leung Chun-ying has the highest overall rank with an average rank of 1.8. Carrie Lam comes second with an average rank of 2.0. The overall ranks of Leung Kwok-hung and Donald Tsang come 3rd and 4th respectively, with average ranks of 4.3 and 4.6. The overall ranks of Tung Chee-hwa, Regina Ip, Jasper Tsang and John Tsang come 5th to 8th respectively, with average ranks of 5.7, 6.3, 6.9 and 7.6. The 9th to 10th overall ranks go to Martin Lee and Anson Chan with corresponding average ranks of 11.6 and 11.9.
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.
The purpose of our ranking of political figures is to show the changing political ecology by studying the ups and downs of people’s familiarity with these figures over time. According to our latest survey, Carrie Lam continues to be the most visible political figure in Hong Kong. Donald Tsang ranks 2nd while Tung Chee-hwa ranks 3rd. Compared to 5 months ago, 8 political figures remain on the “top 10” list. Jasper Tsang and Lee Cheuk-yan who ranked 7th and 10th respectively last time have fallen out of the list and are replaced by Anson Chan and Paul Chan who now occupy the 9th and 10th places. The ups and downs within the latest list should be good reflections of our changing political environment. If we would like to focus on long term development, we can use the overall rankings accumulated over five years. Figures show that Leung Chun-ying, Carrie Lam, Leung Kwok-hung, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa are people’s most familiar political figures in the long run. It should be noted, however, that our ranking of “people’s most familiar political figures” is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong.
Future Releases (Tentative)
