HKU POP releases the latest survey on Taiwan and Tibetan issuesBack
Press Release on January 22, 2019
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Independence of Taiwan) |
(Confidence in Cross-strait Reunification) |
| Detailed Findings ( Opinion on Applicability of "One Country, Two Systems" to Taiwan) |
| Detailed Findings (Opinion on Taiwan's Rejoining the United Nations) |
(Opinion on Independence of Tibet) |
Contact Information
|
Date of survey |
: |
7-11/1/2019 |
|
Survey method |
: |
Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
|
Target population |
: |
Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
|
Sample size[1] |
: |
1,007 |
|
Effective response rate[2] |
: |
55.6% |
|
Sampling error[3] |
: |
Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and that of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level |
|
Weighting method[4] |
: |
Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] Starting from April 2018, POP revised the landline and mobile sample ratio to 2 to 1. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.
Latest Figures
People’s latest views towards various Taiwan and Tibetan issues are summarized below:
|
Date of survey |
1-5/3/17 |
2-7/8/17 |
1-6/2/18 |
6-9/8/18 |
7-11/1/19 |
Latest change |
|
Sample size[5] |
535-674 |
707-830[6] |
696-786 |
553-612 |
505-550 |
-- |
|
Response rate |
71.7% |
67.0% |
62.5% |
51.2% |
55.6% |
-- |
|
Latest findings |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error |
-- |
|
Confidence in cross-strait reunification |
31%[7] |
26%[7] |
30%[7] |
35% |
28+/-4% |
-7%[7] |
|
No confidence in cross-strait reunification |
59% |
62% |
62% |
56%[7] [8] |
60+/-4% |
+4% |
|
Net confidence |
-29% |
-37%[7] |
-32% |
-22% |
-33+/-8% |
-11%[7] |
|
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate |
45% |
46% |
54%[7] |
59% |
54+/-4% |
-5% |
|
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate |
36%[7] |
35% |
32% |
29% |
29+/-4% |
-1% |
|
Net support |
10% |
11% |
22%[7] |
30% |
25+/-8% |
-5% |
|
Taiwan independence: Support rate |
25%[7] |
33%[7] |
33% |
34% |
35+/-4% |
-- |
|
Taiwan independence: Opposition rate |
61%[7] |
52%[7] |
54% |
54% |
50+/-4% |
-4% |
|
Net support |
-36%[7] |
-19%[7] |
-20% |
-20% |
-16+/-8% |
+4% |
|
Believed “one country, two systems” was applicable to Taiwan |
39%[7] |
30%[7] |
35%[7] |
35% |
29+/-4% |
-7%[7] |
|
Believed “one country, two systems” was not applicable to Taiwan |
47% |
54%[7] |
53% |
50% |
59+/-4% |
+9%[7] |
|
Net value of applicability |
-8% |
-24%[7] |
-18% |
-14% |
-30+/-8% |
-16%[7] |
|
Tibet independence: Support rate |
16% |
16% |
19% |
19% |
19+/-3% |
-- |
|
Tibet independence: Opposition rate |
65%[7] |
63% |
63% |
63% |
58+/-4% |
-5% |
|
Net support |
-49%[7] |
-47% |
-44% |
-44% |
-39+/-7% |
+5% |
[5] These questions only use sub-samples of the surveys concerned; the sample size for each question also varies.
[6] The mobile sample was not included when survey results were released. The figures in the table above have been updated to reflect the results based on the combined landline and mobile sample. However, whether changes have gone beyond sampling errors is still determined based on the figures in the first release.
[7] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the changes would not have gone beyond the sampling errors.
Latest survey revealed that 28% of Hong Kong people interviewed were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 60% expressed no confidence, with net confidence at negative 33 percentage points. 54% supported Taiwan’s rejoining the United Nations while 29% opposed, with net support at positive 25 percentage points. Besides, 50% opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas 35% showed support, with net support at negative 16 percentage points. As for the applicability of “one country, two systems” to Taiwan, 29% gave a positive view while 59% gave a negative answer, with net value of applicability at negative 30 percentage points. Regarding Tibetan issues, 58% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Tibet whereas 19% showed support, with net support at negative 39 percentage points.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 6 to 9 August, 2018 while this survey was conducted from 7 to 11 January, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
9/1/19 |
The National Anthem Bill will be tabled in the Legislative Council on January 23. |
|
2/1/19 |
Xi Jinping says Taiwan must be unified with China during a meeting to commemorate the 40th anniversary of the “Message to Compatriots in Taiwan”. |
|
17/12/18 |
Chief Executive Carrie Lam pays a duty visit to Beijing. |
|
6/12/18 |
Huawei’s deputy chairwoman Sabrina Meng Wanzhou has been arrested in Canada. |
|
1/12/18 |
President Xi Jinping calls for adherence to openness to safeguard multilateral trade system in his speech on G20 leaders’ summit. |
|
24/11/18 |
Kuomintang wins 15 seats in mayoral and magisterial elections. |
|
12/11/18 |
Carrie Lam leads a delegation to visit Beijing and meets Xi Jinping. |
|
10/11/18 |
Carrie Lam leads a delegation to visit Shenzhen. |
|
24/10/18 |
The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge officially commences operation. |
|
14/10/18 |
People protest against Lantau Tomorrow Vision. |
|
12/10/18 |
The returning officer declares Lau Siu-lai’s nomination for Legislative Council Kowloon West by-election invalid. |
|
5/10/18 |
U.S. Vice President Mike Pence criticizes China for trying to interfere U.S. midterm elections. |
|
24/9/18 |
An order banning the Hong Kong National Party’s operation is gazetted by the government. |
|
22/9/18 |
The Hong Kong Section of Express Rail Link will be launched on September 23. |
|
16/8/18 |
Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan residents could apply for identity cards in mainland China from September 1. |
Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ view on the Taiwan and Tibet independence issue, and confidence in cross-strait reunification by age:
|
Date of survey: 7-11/1/2019 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
View on the Taiwan independence issue[ 9] |
Support |
58+/-11%
|
41+/-7%
|
21+/-5%
|
35+/-4%
|
|
Oppose |
32+/-10%
|
47+/-7%
|
59+/-7%
|
50+/-4%
|
|
|
Don’t know / hard to say |
10+/-6%
|
11+/-5%
|
20+/-5%
|
15+/-3%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[9] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
|
Date of survey: 7-11/1/2019 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
View on the Tibet independence issue[ 10] |
Support |
43+/-11%
|
24+/-6%
|
9+/-4%
|
19+/-4%
|
|
Oppose |
37+/-11%
|
54+/-7%
|
68+/-6%
|
58+/-4%
|
|
|
Don’t know / hard to say |
20+/-9%
|
23+/-6%
|
24+/-5%
|
23+/-4%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
|
Date of survey: 7-11/1/2019 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Confidence in cross-strait reunification[ 11] |
Yes |
21+/-9%
|
27+/-7%
|
30+/-6%
|
27+/-4%
|
|
No |
75+/-9%
|
64+/-7%
|
54+/-6%
|
61+/-4%
|
|
|
Don’t know / hard to say |
4+/-4%
|
9+/-4%
|
16+/-5%
|
12+/-3%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Tai.
Our latest survey shows that Hong Kong people who oppose the independence of Taiwan continue to outnumber those who support it. The latest net support is negative 16 percentage points. However, people’s latest net support for Taiwan rejoining the UN stands at positive 25 percentage points. In general, although Hong Kong people object to the independence of Taiwan, they continue to support giving Taiwan more international space. Besides, the net value of those who believed “one country, two systems” should be applicable to Taiwan significantly drops by 16 percentage points to negative 30 percentage points, which is a record low since the survey question was first asked near the end of 1996. People continue to be pessimistic about cross-strait reunification, and its latest net confidence significantly drops by 11 percentage points to negative 33 percentage points. Regarding Tibetan issue, Hong Kong people who oppose the independence of Tibet also outnumber those who support it, with a net support rate of negative 39 percentage points, but this sets a record high since early 2000. Further analysis shows that the older the people, the more likely they object to Taiwan and Tibet’s independence, while the younger the people, the more pessimistic they are about cross-strait reunification. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”.
Future Release (Tentative)
