HKU POP releases society appraisal surveyBack
Press Release on January 8, 2019
| Detailed Findings (People's Level of Concern about Political, Economic and livelihood problems) |
Contact Information
|
Date of survey |
: |
17-20/12/2018 |
|
Survey method |
: |
Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
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Target population |
: |
Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
|
Sample size[1] |
: |
1,000 |
|
Effective response rate[2] |
: |
60.6% |
|
Sampling error[3] |
: |
Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.15 at 95% confidence level |
|
Weighting method[4] |
: |
Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] Starting from April 2018, POP revised the landline and mobile sample ratio to 2 to 1. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.
Latest Figures
Since the figures released by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong today come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by POP in 2018, they are good for year-end stories. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over the past many years can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running year-end reviews.
Recent figures of people’s concerns of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
19-22/12/16 |
19-22/6/17 |
18-19/12/17 |
14-21/6/18 |
17-20/12/18 |
Latest change |
|
Sample size |
1,009 |
1,007 |
1,013 |
1,000 |
1,000 |
-- |
|
Response rate |
70.9% |
71.2% |
64.9% |
59.6% |
60.6% |
-- |
|
Latest findings |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error |
-- |
|
Most concerned with livelihood problems |
63%[6] |
68%[6] |
65% |
63% |
66+/-3% |
+3% |
|
Most concerned with economic problems |
18% |
17% |
16% |
18% |
19+/-2% |
+1% |
|
Most concerned with political problems |
17% |
13%[6] |
16%[6] |
16% |
13+/-2% |
-3% |
|
Rating on concern for livelihood problems[5] |
7.33 |
7.45[6] |
7.37 |
7.45 |
7.46+/-0.13 |
+0.01 |
|
Rating on concern for economic problems[5] |
6.84 |
6.88 |
6.81 |
6.97[6] |
6.99+/-0.12 |
+0.02 |
|
Rating on concern for political problems[5] |
6.06 |
5.85[6] |
5.97 |
5.97 |
6.05+/-0.15 |
+0.08 |
[5] From October to December 2018, POP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit the POP Site for details.
[6] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Latest survey showed that 66% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood problems, 19% and 13% respectively attached their greatest concerns to economic problems and political problems respectively. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, economic and political problems were 7.46, 6.99 and 6.05 marks correspondingly.
As for people’s satisfaction of society’s conditions, the figures have already been released in the previous press release. People’s latest satisfaction rates with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions were 40%, 30% and 20% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were positive 8, negative 16 and negative 36 percentage points. The mean scores of the economic, livelihood and political conditions were 3.0, 2.7 and 2.4, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general. Please refer to the POP Site for figures in previous surveys.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 14 to 21 June, 2018 while this survey was conducted from 17 to 20 December, 2018. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
17/12/18 |
Chief Executive Carrie Lam pays a duty visit to Beijing. |
|
5/12/18 |
MTR Corporation agrees to dig up platform slabs at Hung Hom station to assess the built structures. |
|
25/11/18 |
Chan Hoi-yan wins Legislative Council Kowloon West by-election. |
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19/11/18 |
The trial of nine protesters of the Occupy Central charged with public nuisance related offences starts today. |
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19/11/18 |
Commission on Poverty announces 1.37 million people in Hong Kong are living in poverty, which reaches a 9-year high. |
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12/11/18 |
Carrie Lam leads a delegation to visit Beijing and meets Xi Jinping. |
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10/11/18 |
Some tours that visit Hong Kong via the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge are suspected to have violated regulations. |
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1/11/18 |
The Public Transport Fare Subsidy Scheme will be implemented next year. |
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31/10/18 |
The Environment Bureau will introduce the Charging for Municipal Solid Waste Bill into the Legislative Council soon. |
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24/10/18 |
The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge officially commences operation. |
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16/10/18 |
The traffic is paralyzed as four MTR lines encounter signalling issues. |
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14/10/18 |
People protest against Lantau Tomorrow Vision. |
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12/10/18 |
The returning officer declares Lau Siu-lai’s nomination for Legislative Council Kowloon West by-election invalid. |
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10/10/18 |
Chief Executive Carrie Lam delivers the 2018 Policy Address. |
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28/9/18 |
Price Indices of Private Domestic Property fall for the first time in 29 months. |
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27/9/18 |
Hong Kong Banks increase prime rate for the first time in twelve years. |
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24/9/18 |
An order banning the Hong Kong National Party’s operation is gazetted by the government. |
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22/9/18 |
The Hong Kong Section of Express Rail Link will be launched on September 23. |
|
17/9/18 |
The traffic is paralyzed in the first working day after Super Typhoon Mangkhut hit Hong Kong. |
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.
According to our latest survey, using a one-in-three choices method, people are currently most concerned with livelihood issues, accounting for 66% of the total sample. Then, 19% and 13% express their concerns with economic and political issues respectively. Among them, the percentage of those most concerned with political issues has dropped to record low since June 2013. In terms of absolute ratings, the ratings of people’s concerns with livelihood, economy and political problems are 7.46, 6.99 and 6.05 marks respectively. Among them, the rating on concern for livelihood problems registers a record high since the end of 2010. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”.
Future Release (Tentative)
