HKU POP releases popularity figures of Hong Kong disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison and the PSIBack
Press Release on December 4, 2018
| Detail Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Discipilnary Force) |
| Detail Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the Hong Kong Police Force) |
| Detail Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison) |
| Detailed Findings (Public Sentiment Index Feature Page) |
Special Announcements
1. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has also added mobile numbers to the sampling frame. After three months of testing, in October 2017, POP formalized the use of mixed samples as its standard for regular opinion surveys using a landline and mobile sample ratio of 4 to 1. Starting from April 2018, POP further increased the proportion of mobile sample, which the landline and mobile sample ratio became 2 to 1. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.
2. In September 2017, POP started to use “effective response rate” to report surveys’ contact information. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
3. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of regular rating surveys of current CE Carrie Lam, former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP conducted a survey on people’s satisfaction with the disciplinary forces in November 2018 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that the recognition rates of the Fire Services Department and the Police Force are both higher than 95% and those of the Immigration Department, the Independent Commission Against Corruption, the Customs and Excise Department and the Auxiliary Medical Service are higher than 90%, while those of the Government Flying Service, the Civil Aid Service and the Correctional Services Department are higher than or close to 80%. This shows that Hong Kong people are rather familiar with all our disciplinary forces. In terms of relative rankings, the Fire Services Department continues to rank first with a rating of 82.9 marks. The Auxiliary Medical Service and the Government Flying Service rank second and third. The Customs and Excise Department, the Civil Aid Service and the Immigration Department rank fourth to sixth, while the Independent Commission Against Corruption, the Correctional Services Department and the Police Force rank seventh to ninth. Compared with the last survey, the overall rankings of all disciplinary forces have not changed much. In terms of absolute ratings, all nine disciplinary forces get more than 60 marks, six of which are above 70, which is very good. The rating of the Police Force is 62.5 marks and remains the lowest among the nine disciplinary forces. Its net satisfaction rate is positive 23 percentage points. Meanwhile, the popularity rating of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison stands at 57.8 marks, which is a record low since the survey question was first asked in mid-2012. Its net satisfaction rate stands at positive 30 percentage points, representing a significant decrease of 11 percentage points since half a year ago, and is only slightly higher than that registered in the first survey conducted in July 1997. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points, that of rating figures is below +/-3.0 marks at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.
As for the Public Sentiment Index (PSI), the latest PSI stands at 100.7, decreased by 1.0 point since early November. This time both component scores of PSI have decreased. Specifically, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance goes down by 1.5 points to 99.3, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment decreases by 0.4 point to 94.8.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,000 successful interviews, not 1,000 x 67.9% response rate.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net values need another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-3.0, that of percentages not more than +/-4%, and that of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
I. Disciplinary Forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison
Background
Since its establishment in 1991, POP has been conducting different types of opinion studies on social and political issues. Shortly after the handover of Hong Kong in July 1997, POP began our regular surveys on people’s satisfaction with the Hong Kong Police Force and PLA Hong Kong Garrison. In 2012, POP revised the design of this survey series by splitting the survey into two stages. A naming survey of people’s most familiar disciplinary forces in Hong Kong was conducted first, followed by another survey on people’s satisfaction with top 6 most familiar disciplinary forces, as well as the PLA Hong Kong Garrison. In mid-2015, POP expanded the scope of the satisfaction survey to cover all nine disciplinary forces in Hong Kong, plus PLA Hong Kong Garrison, thus doing away with the naming survey while increasing the reference value of the entire survey. In late 2017, the focus of the survey was changed to satisfaction ratings. For the questions that used the 5-point scale, only the two on the satisfaction of the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison were kept for the purpose of long term tracking. All findings of these surveys are published regularly at the HKU POP Site.
Latest Figures
From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity group is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Sample size |
Effective response rate |
Maximum sampling error
|
|
15-19/11/2018 |
1,000 |
67.9% |
+/-3% / +/-3.0 |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
Latest satisfaction ratings of Hong Kong disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
21-24/11/16 |
22-25/5/17 |
14-16/11/17 |
21-25/5/18 |
15-19/11/18 |
Latest change |
|
|
Sample base[7] |
551-656 |
560-622 |
560-741 |
508-576 |
538-579 |
-- |
|
|
Response rate* |
70.8% |
69.7% |
62.8% |
55.9% |
67.9% |
-- |
|
|
Finding /
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error [9] |
Recog % |
-- |
|
Fire Services Department |
83.9{1}[10] |
84.2{1} |
84.1{1} |
84.1{1} |
82.9+/-1.3{1} |
99.5% |
-1.2 |
|
Auxiliary Medical Service |
76.6{3}[10] |
78.9{3}[10] |
79.5{3} |
79.8{3} |
79.3+/-1.4{2} |
91.1% |
-0.5 |
|
Government Flying Service |
77.1{2} |
79.5{2}[10] |
79.9{2} |
79.9{2} |
78.8+/-1.3{3} |
88.6% |
-1.1 |
|
Customs and Excise Department |
71.2{5} |
73.5{4}[10] |
74.0{5} |
75.6{4}[10] |
74.1+/-1.4{4} |
93.7% |
-1.5 |
|
Civil Aid Service |
72.6{4}[10] |
73.3{5} |
74.3{4} |
72.3{6}[10] |
73.3+/-1.6{5} |
80.0% |
+1.0 |
|
Immigration Department |
70.4{6}[10] |
71.1{6} |
73.5{6}[10] |
73.7{5} |
71.5+/-1.5{6} |
94.9% |
-2.2[10] [11] |
|
Independent Commission Against Corruption |
63.2{9}[10] |
69.2{8}[10] |
71.9{7}[10] |
68.9{7}[10] |
68.9+/-1.7{7} |
94.6% |
-- |
|
Correctional Services Department |
70.0{7} |
69.8{7} |
68.7{8} |
68.8{8} |
67.9+/-1.6{8} |
79.9% |
-0.9 |
|
Police Force |
64.6{8}[10] |
64.1{9} |
66.9{9}[10] |
63.7{9}[10] |
62.5+/-2.1{9} |
98.6% |
-1.3 |
|
PLA Hong Kong Garrison |
62.0 |
63.3 |
64.1 |
61.0[10] |
57.8+/-3.0 |
72.3% |
-3.2 |
* “Overall response rate” was used before September 2017, thereafter, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[7] These questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[8] Since October 2018, POP started to conduct tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit the POP Site for details.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level”, meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of ratings not more than +/-3.0 marks at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicate the rankings.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the changes would not have gone beyond the sampling errors.
The latest survey conducted in November shows that the 1st to 3rd places regarding people’s satisfaction with disciplinary forces are the Fire Services Department, the Auxiliary Medical Service and the Government Flying Service with satisfaction ratings of 82.9, 79.3 and 78.8 respectively. Next, the 4th to 6th ranks go to the Customs and Excise Department, the Civil Aid Service and the Immigration Department, with satisfaction ratings at 74.1, 73.3 and 71.5 marks respectively. Finally, the 7th to 9th places go to the Independent Commission Against Corruption, the Correctional Services Department and the Hong Kong Police Force. Their satisfaction ratings are 68.9, 67.9 and 62.5 respectively. Besides, people’s latest satisfaction rating toward the PLA Hong Kong Garrison is 57.8 marks.
Latest satisfaction rates of the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison using the 5-point scale are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
21-24/11/16 |
22-25/5/17 |
14-16/11/17 |
21-25/5/18 |
15-19/11/18 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base[12] |
590-656 |
562-595 |
590-741 |
542-566 |
557-576 |
-- |
|
Response rate* |
70.8% |
69.7% |
62.8% |
55.9% |
67.9% |
-- |
|
Finding / Error |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error[13] |
-- |
|
Satisfaction rate of the
|
58% |
58% |
59% |
54%[15] |
51+/-4% |
-3% |
|
Dissatisfaction rate of the
|
20% |
23% |
22% |
28%[15] |
28+/-4% |
-- |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
38% |
35% |
37% |
26%[15] |
23+/-7% |
-3% |
|
Mean value[14] |
3.5 (Base=569) |
3.4 (Base=572) |
3.5 (Base=736) |
3.3[15] (Base=528) |
3.3+/-0.1 (Base=569) |
-- |
|
Satisfaction rate of the
|
45% |
44% |
52%[15] |
50% |
46+/-4% |
-5% |
|
Dissatisfaction rate of the
|
11% |
11% |
8%[15] |
10% |
16+/-3% |
+6%[15] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
34% |
33% |
44%[15] |
41% |
30+/-6% |
-11%[15] |
|
Mean value[14] |
3.6 (Base=491) |
3.6 (Base=405) |
3.7 (Base=466) |
3.6 (Base=426) |
3.5+/-0.1 (Base=406) |
-0.1 |
* “Overall response rate” was used before September 2017, thereafter, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[12] These questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[13] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “ sampling error of ratings not more than +/-0.1 marks, that of percentages not more than +/-4%, and that of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[14] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Since October 2018, POP started to conduct tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit the POP Site for details.
[15] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Survey results show that the satisfaction rate of the Police Force is 51%, dissatisfaction rate 28%, giving a net satisfaction rate of positive 23 percentage points and a mean score of 3.3, meaning between “half-half” and “quite satisfied” in general. Regarding the PLA Hong Kong Garrison, the satisfaction rate is 46%, dissatisfaction rate 16%, giving a net satisfaction of positive 30 percentage points, and a mean score of 3.5, meaning between “half-half” and “quite satisfied” in general.
II. Public Sentiment Index
Background
The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal, the grading reference of the scores are shown below. For methodological detailed please refer to the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk.
POP started to pilot study the “Public Sentiment Index” in year 2010 in collaboration with NowTV. The first survey was conducted in June 2010, followed by a series of monthly tracking surveys in 2011. There were altogether 13 surveys, covered by 11 releases from March 2011 to January 2012. All results have been uploaded to the POP Site.
At the end of June 2012, before the 15th anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong, POP officially released a “PSI analysis” with figures dating back to 1992, spanning over 20 years. Moreover, the frequency of the study was set at twice a month. In October 2012, echoing the start of a new Legislative Council, POP decided to set the cut-off date of all PSI analyses at the Sunday proceeding every 15th and last day of month, whereas the release date was set at the first Thursday following the cut-off date. In July 2017, after the 20th anniversary of the handover, POP further streamlined the release date and mode of PSI analyses to become POP Site release only for the first analysis of each month, and POP Site plus press release for the second analysis of each month. At the same time, the second release was shifted to the first Tuesday of the following month, except under special circumstances.
Cut-off date of the PSI figures released by POP today is November 25, 2018, while that of the next round of release will be December 9, 2018. The tentative release date for the next release will be December 13, 2018 (Thursday).
Latest Figures of PSI
The PSI released by POP today shows that as of November 25, 2018, the latest Public Sentiment Index (PSI) is 100.7, down 1.0 from early November. As for the Government Appraisal (GA) and Society Appraisal (SA), the scores are 99.3 and 94.8, down by 1.5 and 0.4 respectively. The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:
|
|
|||
|
Latest figure |
Public Sentiment Index
|
Government Appraisal
|
Society Appraisal
|
Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:
|
Release date |
13/9/18 |
2/10/18 |
11/10/18 |
6/11/18 |
15/11/18 |
4/12/18 |
Latest change |
|
Cut-off date |
9/9/18 |
23/9/18 |
7/10/18 |
28/10/18 |
11/11/18 |
25/11/18 |
-- |
|
Public Sentiment Index (PSI) |
105.7 |
104.0 |
104.9 |
101.8 |
101.8 |
100.7 |
-1.0 |
|
Government Appraisal (GA) |
104.6 |
99.4 |
101.0 |
100.9 |
100.8 |
99.3 |
-1.5 |
|
Rating of CE |
57.3 |
50.8 |
52.3 |
51.7 |
52.3 |
50.2 |
-2.0 |
|
Net approval rate of CE |
10% |
-4% |
4% |
-1% |
-5% |
-4% |
+1% |
|
Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG [17] |
2.8[16] |
2.8 |
2.8[16] |
2.8 |
2.8[16] |
2.7 |
-0.1 |
|
Mean value of people’s trust in SARG[17] |
3.0[16] |
3.0[16] |
3.0[16] |
3.0[16] |
3.0[16] |
3.0 |
-- |
|
Society Appraisal (SA) |
98.4[16] |
100.6 |
100.6[16] |
95.2 |
95.2[16] |
94.8 |
-0.4 |
|
People’s satisfaction with political condition [17] |
2.2[16] |
2.3 |
2.3[16] |
2.2 |
2.2[16] |
2.2 |
-- |
|
Weighting index of political condition |
0.31[16] |
0.31[16] |
0.31[16] |
0.31[16] |
0.31[16] |
0.31 [16] |
-- |
|
People’s satisfaction with economic condition [17] |
3.0[16] |
2.9 |
2.9[16] |
2.8 |
2.8[16] |
2.9 |
+0.1 |
|
Weighting index of economic condition |
0.34[16] |
0.34[16] |
0.34[16] |
0.34[16] |
0.34[16] |
0.34 [16] |
-- |
|
People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition [17] |
2.6[16] |
2.6 |
2.6[16] |
2.6 |
2.6[16] |
2.5 |
-0.1 |
|
Weighting index of livelihood condition |
0.35[16] |
0.35[16] |
0.35[16] |
0.35[16] |
0.35[16] |
0.35 [16] |
-- |
[16] POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.
[17] Since October 2018, POP started to conduct tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit the POP Site for details.
As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:
|
Score value |
Percentile |
Score value |
Percentile |
|
140-200 |
Highest 1% |
0-60 |
Lowest 1% |
|
125 |
Highest 5% |
75 |
Lowest 5% |
|
120 |
Highest 10% |
80 |
Lowest 10% |
|
110 |
Highest 25% |
90 |
Lowest 25% |
|
100 being normal level, meaning half above half below |
|||
The latest PSI of 100.7 can be considered as among the best 48% across the past 20 years or so, while the GA and SA scores of 99.3 and 94.8 can be considered as among the worst 48% and 36% respectively.
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.
Our latest survey shows that the recognition rates of the Fire Services Department and the Police Force are both higher than 95% and those of the Immigration Department, the Independent Commission Against Corruption, the Customs and Excise Department and the Auxiliary Medical Service are higher than 90%, while those of the Government Flying Service, the Civil Aid Service and the Correctional Services Department are higher than or close to 80%. This shows that Hong Kong people are rather familiar with all our disciplinary forces. In terms of relative rankings, the Fire Services Department continues to rank first with a rating of 82.9 marks. The Auxiliary Medical Service and the Government Flying Service rank second and third. The Customs and Excise Department, the Civil Aid Service and the Immigration Department rank fourth to sixth, while the Independent Commission Against Corruption, the Correctional Services Department and the Police Force rank seventh to ninth. Compared with the last survey, the overall rankings of all disciplinary forces have not changed much. In terms of absolute ratings, all nine disciplinary forces get more than 60 marks, six of which are above 70, which is very good. The rating of the Police Force is 62.5 marks and remains the lowest among the nine disciplinary forces. Its net satisfaction rate is positive 23 percentage points. Meanwhile, the popularity rating of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison stands at 57.8 marks, which is a record low since the survey question was first asked in mid-2012. Its net satisfaction rate stands at positive 30 percentage points, representing a significant decrease of 11 percentage points since half a year ago, and is only slightly higher than that registered in the first survey conducted in July 1997.
As for the Public Sentiment Index (PSI), the latest PSI stands at 100.7, decreased by 1.0 point since early November. This time both component scores of PSI have decreased. Specifically, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance goes down by 1.5 points to 99.3, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment decreases by 0.4 point to 94.8. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”.
Future Release (Tentative)
Reference Materials on Survey on PSI Please refer to the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk.
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