HKU POP releases the latest ratings of the top 10 Legislative Councillors and a survey on South China Sea DisputesBack
Press Release on November 20, 2018
| Detailed Findings Rating of Top Ten Legislative Councillors|
Special Announcements
1. In August 2018, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong was commissioned by Mr Albert del Rosario of the Philippines to conduct an independent opinion survey in Hong Kong on the South China Sea Disputes, in order to investigate Hong Kong people’s awareness and views on the disputes and how much importance they give to public opinion in settling the disputes. The survey was conducted from 1 to 6 November 2018 with 1,000 Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above. The survey report will be released tomorrow via “HKU POP SITE” (https://hkupop.pori.hk/english/report/south_china_sea_2018/index.html).
2. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, POP has also added mobile numbers to the sampling frame. After three months of testing, in October 2017, POP formalized the use of mixed samples as its standard for regular opinion surveys using a landline and mobile sample ratio of 4 to 1. Starting from April 2018, POP further increased the proportion of mobile sample, which the landline and mobile sample ratio became 2 to 1. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.
3. In September 2017, POP started to use “effective response rate” to report surveys’ contact information. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
4. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of regular rating surveys of current CE Carrie Lam, former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP conducted a two-stage survey on the Legislative Councillors in October and November, by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that, compared to four months ago, in terms of familiarity, Leung Yiu-chung and Paul Tse have replaced Eddie Chu and Andrew Leung to enter the “top 10” list. In terms of absolute ratings, out of the 8 Councillors in the “top 10” list who were also rated last time, only 1 has gone up while the remaining 7 have gone down. Among them, only the drops in the ratings of Priscilla Leung and Chiang Lai-wan have gone beyond sampling errors, down by 5.0 and 4.3 marks respectively. In terms of relative rankings, Michael Tien continues to rank first, for 4 consecutive times since November 2017. James To, Tanya Chan and Regina Ip remain in the same positions and rank second to fourth respectively. Leung Yiu-chung enters the list for the first time and ranks fifth. Claudia Mo continues to rank sixth. Paul Tse re-enters the list to rank seventh. Starry Lee goes down one position to rank eighth. Priscilla Leung and Chiang Lai-wan remain in the same positions and rank ninth and tenth respectively. It should be noted however that our list of “top 10” only includes LegCo members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the “top 10” list by design. The maximum sampling error of the ratings registered is +/-2.8 marks at 95% confidence level, while the response rate of the rating survey is 59%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,006 successful interviews, not 1,006 x 63.4% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 1,002 successful interviews, not 1,002 x 58.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling errors of various ratings not more than +/-2.8 at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity group is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Sample size |
Effective response rate |
Maximum sampling error[6] |
|
22-24/10/2018 (Naming survey) |
1,006 |
63.4% |
+/-3% |
|
1-6/11/2018 (Rating survey) |
1,002 |
58.9% |
+/-2.8 |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
The research design of our “Top 10 Legislative Councillors” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from October 22 to 24. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 councillors whom they knew best. Starry Lee, Claudia Mo, Tanya Chan, Regina Ip and James To were the top 5 councillors mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted from November 1 to 6, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale, where 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolutely support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:
|
Date of survey |
14-16/11/2017 |
1-6/3/2018 |
3-5/7/2018 |
1-6/11/2018 |
Latest change |
|
|
Sample base[7] |
525-707 |
562-682 |
525-575 |
520-555 |
-- |
|
|
Effective response rate* |
62.8% |
64.7% |
49.5% |
58.9% |
-- |
|
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error[8] |
Recognition rate |
-- |
|
Michael Tien |
57.3{1} |
56.8{1} |
57.7{1} |
57.0+/-1.8{1} |
93.5% |
-0.7 |
|
James To |
51.4{3}[9] |
48.9{4}[9] |
51.3{2} |
52.4+/-2.2{2} |
89.5% |
+1.2 |
|
Tanya Chan |
46.9{6}[9] |
46.8{6} |
50.2{3}[9] |
49.4+/-2.6{3} |
89.7% |
-0.9 |
|
Regina Ip |
52.7{2} |
51.4{2} |
50.0{4} |
48.4+/-2.2{4} |
96.6% |
-1.6 |
|
Leung Yiu-chung |
-- |
-- |
-- |
46.8+/-2.1{5} |
86.0% |
-- |
|
Claudia Mo |
44.6{8} |
46.4{8} |
48.2{6} |
45.3+/-2.5{6} |
88.7% |
-3.0 |
|
Paul Tse |
48.5{4} |
46.7{7} |
-- |
44.1+/-2.2{7} |
90.9% |
-- |
|
Starry Lee |
48.4{5} |
47.6{5} |
45.9{7} |
43.1+/-2.8{8} |
86.8% |
-2.8 |
|
Priscilla Leung |
43.2{9} |
40.2{9}[9] |
41.6{9} |
36.6+/-2.6{9} |
83.3% |
-5.0[9] |
|
Chiang Lai-wan |
40.0{10} |
36.8{10}[9] |
37.9{10} |
33.6+/-2.6{10} |
89.2% |
-4.3[9] |
|
Alvin Yeung |
52.7[10] |
51.1[10] |
52.2[10] |
52.2+/-2.7[10] |
75.4% |
-- |
|
Eddie Chu |
46.3{7}[9] |
51.2{3}[9] |
49.5{5} |
50.7+/-2.8[10] |
82.6% |
+1.2 |
|
Andrew Leung |
-- |
-- |
43.4{8} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Raymond Chan |
-- |
42.9[10] |
46.3[10] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Elizabeth Quat |
38.4[10] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
* In July 2018, POP revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[7] These questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, with variable sub-sample size for each question. In latest survey, the sub-sample size of the questions varies between 520 and 555, and its effect has already been reflected in the sampling errors.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.8 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[10] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in the rating stage of survey are not counted.
[11] Not a Legislative Councillor during the survey period.
The latest survey showed that Michael Tien was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 57.0 marks. James To, Tanya Chan and Regina Ip ranked the 2nd to 4th with 52.4, 49.4 and 48.4 marks correspondingly. The 5th to 8th ranks went to Leung Yiu-chung, Claudia Mo, Paul Tse and Starry Lee who attained 46.8, 45.3, 44.1 and 43.1 marks respectively. Priscilla Leung and Chiang Lai-wan ranked the 9th to 10th, attaining 36.6 and 33.6 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 50.8 marks, while that for the top 10 was 45.7 marks. For this latest survey, Alvin Yeung and Eddie Chu obtained support ratings of 52.2 and 50.7 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past four surveys are tabulated as follows:
|
Date of survey |
14-16/11/17 |
1-6/3/18 |
3-5/7/18 |
1-6/11/18 |
No. of times on top 10 |
Average rating [12] |
Overall ranking [13] |
|
Michael Tien |
57.3 |
56.8 |
57.7 |
57.0 |
4 |
57.2 |
1 |
|
James To |
51.4 |
48.9 |
51.3 |
52.4 |
4 |
51.0 |
2 |
|
Regina Ip |
52.7 |
51.4 |
50.0 |
48.4 |
4 |
50.6 |
3 |
|
Tanya Chan |
46.9 |
46.8 |
50.2 |
49.4 |
4 |
48.3 |
4 |
|
Starry Lee |
48.4 |
47.6 |
45.9 |
43.1 |
4 |
46.2 |
5 |
|
Claudia Mo |
44.6 |
46.4 |
48.2 |
45.3 |
4 |
46.1 |
6 |
|
Priscilla Leung |
43.2 |
40.2 |
41.6 |
36.6 |
4 |
40.4 |
7 |
|
Chiang Lai-wan |
40.0 |
36.8 |
37.9 |
33.6 |
4 |
37.1 |
8 |
|
Eddie Chu |
46.3 |
51.2 |
49.5 |
-- |
3 |
49.0 |
9 |
|
Paul Tse |
48.5 |
46.7 |
-- |
44.1 |
3 |
46.4 |
10 |
|
Leung Yiu-chung |
-- |
-- |
-- |
46.8 |
1 |
46.8 |
11 |
|
Andrew Leung |
-- |
-- |
43.4 |
-- |
1 |
43.4 |
12 |
[12] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past four surveys.
[13] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
The overall rankings in the past four surveys showed that eight Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Michael Tien at the top rank achieving an average rating of 57.2 marks, James To, Regina Ip, Tanya Chan, Starry Lee, Claudia Mo, Priscilla Leung and Chiang Lai-wan who ranked the 2nd to 8th and attained 51.0, 50.6, 48.3, 46.2, 46.1, 40.4 and 37.1 marks correspondingly. Eddie Chu and Paul Tse have been on the list for three times and ranked the 9th to 10th with 49.0 and 46.4 marks correspondingly. Leung Yiu-chung and Andrew Leung have been on the list once and ranked the 11th to 12th with 46.8 and 43.4 marks correspondingly.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from July 3 to 5, 2018, while this survey was conducted from November 1 to 6, 2018. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
1/11/18 |
The Public Transport Fare Subsidy Scheme will be implemented next year. |
|
31/10/18 |
The Environment Bureau will introduce the Charging for Municipal Solid Waste Bill into the Legislative Council soon. |
|
25/10/18 |
Cathay Pacific leaks personal data of 9.4 million people. |
|
24/10/18 |
The Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge officially commences operation. |
|
16/10/18 |
The traffic is paralyzed as four MTR lines encounter signaling issues. |
|
14/10/18 |
People protest against Lantau Tomorrow Vision. |
|
12/10/18 |
The returning officer declares Lau Siu-lai’s nomination for Legislative Council Kowloon West by-election invalid. |
|
10/10/18 |
Chief Executive Carrie Lam delivers the 2018 Policy Address. |
|
24/9/18 |
An order banning the Hong Kong National Party’s operation is gazetted by the government. |
|
22/9/18 |
The Hong Kong Section of Express Rail Link will be launched on September 23. |
|
17/9/18 |
The traffic is paralyzed in the first working day after Super Typhoon Mangkhut hit Hong Kong. |
|
16/9/18 |
Super Typhoon Mangkhut hits Hong Kong. |
|
7/9/18 |
Thirteen protesters who oppose North East New Territories development plan win their appeal at the Court of Final Appeal. |
|
14/8/18 |
Andy Chan Ho-tin, convenor of the Hong Kong National Party, delivers his speech in luncheon held by the Foreign Correspondents’ Club. |
|
7/8/18 |
Five members of the MTR top management team resign because of problems about the construction of the Shatin to Central Link. |
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.
The latest survey of the top 10 Legislative Councillors show that compared to four months ago, in terms of familiarity, Leung Yiu-chung and Paul Tse have replaced Eddie Chu and Andrew Leung to enter the “top 10” list. In terms of absolute ratings, out of the 8 Councillors in the “top 10” list who were also rated last time, only 1 has gone up while the remaining 7 have gone down. Among them, only the drops in the ratings of Priscilla Leung and Chiang Lai-wan have gone beyond sampling errors, down by 5.0 and 4.3 marks respectively. In terms of relative rankings, Michael Tien continues to rank first, for 4 consecutive times since November 2017. James To, Tanya Chan and Regina Ip remain in the same positions and rank second to fourth respectively. Leung Yiu-chung enters the list for the first time and ranks fifth. Claudia Mo continues to rank sixth. Paul Tse re-enters the list to rank seventh. Starry Lee goes down one position to rank eighth. Priscilla Leung and Chiang Lai-wan remain in the same positions and rank ninth and tenth respectively. It should be noted however that our list of “top 10” only includes LegCo members who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the “top 10” list by design. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”.
Future Release (Tentative)
