HKU POP releases results of Policy Address first follow-up survey and ratings of the top 10 political groupsBack
Press Release on October 16, 2018
| Detailed Findings (Policy Address Feature Page) |
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Top Ten Political Groups) |
Special Announcements
1. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has also added mobile numbers to the sampling frame. After three months of testing, in October 2017, POP formalized the use of mixed samples as its standard for regular opinion surveys using a landline and mobile sample ratio of 4 to 1. Starting from April 2018, POP further increased the proportion of mobile sample, which the landline and mobile sample ratio became 2 to 1. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.
2. In September 2017, POP started to use “effective response rate” to report surveys’ contact information. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
3. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of regular rating surveys of current CE Carrie Lam, former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
According to our Policy Address follow-up survey, people’s net satisfaction with Carrie Lam’s second Policy Address stays at negative 1 percentage point, while satisfaction rating slightly increases by 2.0 marks to 50.5. In other words, after some initial discussions, people’s appraisal of this year’s Policy Address has not changed significantly. Meanwhile, people’s net satisfaction with CE’s policy direction now stands at positive 7 percentage points, representing a significant decrease of 21 percentage points compared to the first Address delivered by Carrie Lam last year. POP will conduct another round of follow-up survey to map people’s further reaction and the results will be released at the end of October. Whether public opinion would change after many rounds of discussion remains to be seen. The follow-up survey interviewed 503 Hong Kong people by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of rating figure is +/-2.5 and that of net value needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%.
As for the top 10 political groups, POP conducted a double stage survey in September and October by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey of “Top 10 Political Groups” shows that the support ratings of all political groups remained below 50 marks. In terms of support ratings, compared to six months ago, only the rating of FTU has gone up significantly. Compared to the last survey, all ten political groups have managed to maintain their places in the “top 10” list. In terms of relative rankings, FTU goes up six positions to top the list, CP goes down one position to rank 2nd, LP goes up two positions to rank 3rd, DP remains at the 4th place, Labour Party goes down three positions to rank 5th, DAB goes up two positions to rank 6th, NPP goes down one position to rank 7th, ADPL goes down five positions to rank 8th, LSD and PP remain at the 9th and 10th positions. Besides, the latest support rating of ADPL is again at record low since the survey series was first started in 1991. It should be noted, however, that our “Top 10 Political Groups” only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. The maximum sampling error of the ratings of the top ten political groups is +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the rating survey is 47%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[3] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Policy Address First Follow-up Survey
[4] The sample size of this survey is 503 successful interviews, not 503 x 65.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[5] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.5, that of percentages not more than +/-4% and net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level”.
Ratings of the Top 10 Political Groups
[6] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,002 successful interviews, not 1,002 x 55.6% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is another 1,002 successful interviews, not 1,002 x 46.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[7] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level”.
I. Policy Address First Follow-up Survey
Background
Since 1992, POP has been conducting Policy Address instant surveys every year. In 1998, we expanded our instant surveys to cover the Budget Talks. In general, such instant polls which measure people’s instant reactions would be repeated later by a follow-up survey which measure people’s more matured reactions. We believe this is the correct way to study public opinion. In 2008, we further split our instant survey into two. In our first survey, we measure people’s overall appraisal of the Policy Address, their rating of the Policy Address, their change in confidence towards Hong Kong’s future, and CE’s popularity. One to two days later, we would conduct our first follow-up survey to study any change in people’s satisfaction of the Policy Address. The findings of this year’s instant survey were already released on October 10 and 11. Today, we release the results of our first follow-up survey.
Latest Figures
From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity group is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Sample size |
Effective response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[8] |
|
11-12/10/2018 |
503 |
65.3% |
+/-4% |
[8] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
Results of the follow-up surveys together with the instant polls of the two most recent Policy Addresses are tabulated below:
|
|
10/2017 |
10/2018 |
||||
|
Instant survey [9] |
Follow-up survey |
Change |
Instant survey [10] |
Follow-up survey |
Latest Change |
|
|
Date of survey |
11/10/17 |
12-13/10/17 |
-- |
10/10/18 |
11-12/10/18 |
-- |
|
Sample base |
673 |
508 |
-- |
584 |
503 |
-- |
|
Effective response rate* |
63.5% |
60.8% |
-- |
65.9% |
65.3% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
-- |
Finding |
Finding & error[11] |
-- |
|
Appraisal of Policy Address: Satisfaction rate [12] |
48% |
43% |
-5%[13] |
33% |
32+/-4% |
-1% |
|
Appraisal of Policy Address: Dissatisfaction rate [12] |
14% |
24% |
+10%[13] |
34% |
33+/-4% |
-1% |
|
Net value |
34% |
18% |
-16%[13] |
-1% |
-1+/-7% |
-- |
|
Mean value[12] |
3.5 (Base=466) |
3.3 (Base=451) |
-0.2[13] |
2.9 (Base=484) |
2.8+/-0.1 (Base=437) |
-- |
|
Satisfaction rating of Policy Address (0 to 100 marks) |
62.4 |
60.6 |
-1.8 |
48.5 |
50.5+/-2.5 |
+2.0 |
* In July 2018, POP revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[9] Excluding respondents who did not answer this question because they had not heard of / did not have any knowledge of the Policy Address. The sub-sample size was 526.
[10] Excluding respondents who did not answer this question because they had not heard of / did not have any knowledge of the Policy Address. The sub-sample size was 534.
[11] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale, the mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of importance level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey revealed that 32% of the respondents were satisfied with the Policy Address and 33% were dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 1 percentage point. The mean score is 2.8, meaning close to “half-half” in general. The average rating registered for the Policy Address was 50.5 marks.
Respondents’ appraisals of the policy direction in recent years are tabulated below:
|
Date of survey |
14-15/1/16 |
19-20/1/17 |
12-13/10/17 |
11-12/10/18 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base |
514 |
513 |
508 |
503 |
-- |
|
Response rate* |
65.8% |
68.4% |
60.8% |
65.3% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error [14] |
-- |
|
Satisfaction rate of CY Leung’s / Carrie Lam’s policy direction [15] |
22% |
37%[16] |
50%[16] |
42+/-4% |
-8%[16] |
|
Dissatisfaction rate of CY Leung’s / Carrie Lam’s policy direction [15] |
54% |
40%[16] |
22%[16] |
35+/-4% |
+13%[16] |
|
Net value |
-31% |
-3%[16] |
28%[16] |
7+/-8% |
-21%[16] |
|
Mean value [15] |
2.4 (Base=487) |
2.8[16] (Base=492) |
3.4[16] (Base=465) |
3.0+/-0.1 (Base=476) |
-0.4[16] |
* “Overall response rate” was used before September 2017, thereafter, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[14] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[15] Collapsed from a 5-point scale, the mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of importance level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[16] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
As for people’s satisfaction with Carrie Lam’s policy direction, 42% of the respondents showed satisfaction while 35% were not satisfied, giving a net satisfaction rate of positive 7 percentage points. The mean score is 3.0, meaning close to “half-half” in general.
II. Ratings of the Top 10 Political Groups
Latest Figures
From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity group is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Effective sample size |
Effective response rate |
Maximum sampling error[17] |
|
18-20/9/2018 (Naming survey) |
1,002 |
55.6% |
+/-3% |
|
2-4/10/2018 (Rating survey) |
1,002 |
46.8% |
+/-2.5 |
[17] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
The research design of our “Top ten political groups” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. The top political groups listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted from September 18 to 20. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political groups whom they knew best. Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), Democratic Party (DP), Civic Party (CP), Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) and Liberal Party (LP) were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. The 12 most frequently mentioned political groups then entered into the second stage rating survey. During that second stage survey conducted from October 2 to 4, respondents were asked to rate each political group in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 political groups in terms of recognition rate were dropped, leaving behind the top 10. In case any group failed to reach the 50% benchmark recognition rate, it would also be dropped. It should, however, be noted that because political groups are not yet legal entities in Hong Kong, such definitions are rather vague, and so-called political groups are constantly evolving. As a result, strange names may appear in the list of groups mentioned by respondents in Stage One surveys. In order to avoid personal bias, our research team will eliminate groups which fall outside the popular definition only after the first stage of the survey. To facilitate readers follow our research process step by step, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since July 1998. The latest ratings of the top 10 political groups, together with the previous ratings, are summarized below:
|
Date of survey |
24-27/4/17 |
16-19/10/17 |
16-19/4/18 |
2-4/10/18 |
Latest change |
|
|
Sample base |
498-675 |
623-730 |
549-639 |
524-574 |
-- |
|
|
Response rate* |
71.4% |
64.5% |
56.4% |
46.8% |
-- |
|
|
Finding /
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error [18] |
Recognition rate |
-- |
|
FTU |
42.2{4}[20] |
46.0{2}[20] |
41.1{7}[20] |
47.3+/-2.3{1} |
90.7% |
+6.2[20] |
|
CP |
43.6{2}[20] |
47.0{1}[20] |
46.5{1} |
47.1+/-2.1{2} |
87.8% |
+0.6 |
|
LP |
44.0{1}[20] |
45.7{3}[20] |
44.2{5} |
44.7+/-1.9{3} |
85.2% |
+0.5 |
|
DP |
41.4{5}[20] |
44.5{5}[20] |
44.4{4} |
44.1+/-2.1{4} |
91.8% |
-0.3 |
|
Labour Party |
43.5{3}[20] |
42.9[19] |
44.9{2} |
44.0+/-2.2{5} |
77.3% |
-0.9 |
|
DAB |
39.8{7}[20] |
42.8{6}[20] |
40.4{8} |
43.6+/-2.5{6} |
92.5% |
+3.2 |
|
NPP |
40.9{6}[20] |
45.5{4}[20] |
41.2{6}[20] |
43.1+/-2.1{7} |
81.7% |
+1.9 |
|
ADPL |
-- |
-- |
44.6{3} |
41.4+/-2.1{8} |
76.8% |
-3.2[20] [21] |
|
LSD |
34.0{8}[20] |
36.4{7}[20] |
40.2{9}[20] |
38.2+/-2.2{9} |
85.3% |
-2.1 |
|
PP |
30.4{9}[20] |
34.8{8}[20] |
36.3{10} |
35.4+/-2.3{10} |
85.5% |
-0.9 |
|
NWS |
48.5 [19][20] |
47.4[19] |
-- |
44.7+/-2.1[19] |
75.4% |
-- |
|
BPA |
34.9 [19] |
-- |
36.3[19] |
36.6+/-2.2[19] |
70.8% |
+0.3 |
|
Youngspiration |
-- |
28.5{9} |
32.0[19] [20] |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Civic Passion |
27.6{10}[20] |
28.2{10} |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
* “Overall response rate” was used before September 2017, thereafter, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[18] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[19] Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
[20] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[21] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the changes would not have gone beyond the sampling errors.
Findings obtained from early October showed that, the most popular political group was Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) which attained 47.3 marks. Civic Party (CP), Liberal Party (LP), Democratic Party (DP) and Labour Party scored 47.1, 44.7, 44.1 and 44.0 marks respectively and ranked 2nd to 5th. The 6th to 10th places went to Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB), New People’s Party (NPP), Hong Kong Association for Democracy and People’s Livelihood (ADPL), League of Social Democrats (LSD) and People Power (PP), attaining 43.6, 43.1, 41.4, 38.2 and 35.4 marks respectively. The mean score obtained by the top 5 political groups was 45.4 marks. For this latest survey, Neighbourhood and Worker’s Service Centre (NWS) and Business and Professionals Alliance for Hong Kong (BPA) obtained a support rating of 44.7 and 36.6 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 4 surveys are tabulated as follows:
|
Date of survey |
24-27/4/17 |
16-19/10/17 |
16-19/4/18 |
2-4/10/18 |
No. of times on top 10 |
Average rating [22] |
Overall ranking [23] |
|
CP |
43.6 |
47.0 |
46.5 |
47.1 |
4 |
46.1 |
{1} |
|
LP |
44.0 |
45.7 |
44.2 |
44.7 |
4 |
44.7 |
{2} |
|
FTU |
42.2 |
46.0 |
41.1 |
47.3 |
4 |
44.1 |
{3} |
|
DP |
41.4 |
44.5 |
44.4 |
44.1 |
4 |
43.6 |
{4} |
|
NPP |
40.9 |
45.5 |
41.2 |
43.1 |
4 |
42.7 |
{5} |
|
DAB |
39.8 |
42.8 |
40.4 |
43.6 |
4 |
41.7 |
{6} |
|
LSD |
34.0 |
36.4 |
40.2 |
38.2 |
4 |
37.2 |
{7} |
|
PP |
30.4 |
34.8 |
36.3 |
35.4 |
4 |
34.3 |
{8} |
|
Labour Party |
43.5 |
-- |
44.9 |
44.0 |
3 |
44.1 |
{9} |
|
ADPL |
-- |
-- |
44.6 |
41.4 |
2 |
43.0 |
{10} |
|
Civic Passion |
27.6 |
28.2 |
-- |
-- |
2 |
27.9 |
{11} |
|
Youngspiration |
-- |
28.5 |
-- |
-- |
1 |
28.5 |
{12} |
[22] “Average rating” is the average of all ratings obtained by political groups over the past 4 surveys, different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys
[23] “Overall ranking” is first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings. { } Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
The overall rankings in the past 4 surveys showed that eight political groups were listed for four times. CP achieved an average rating of 46.1 and ranked first. Meanwhile, the 2nd to 8th ranks fell to LP, FTU, DP, NPP, DAB, LSD and PP, with respective average ratings of 44.7, 44.1, 43.6, 42.7, 41.7, 37.2 and 34.3 marks. Labour Party was listed three times and ranked the 9th with an average rating of 44.1 marks. ADPL and Civic Passion were listed twice and ranked the 10th and 11th with average ratings of 43.0 and 27.9 marks respectively. Furthermore, Youngspiration was listed once with an average rating of 28.5 marks, now ranked the 12th.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 16 to 19 April, 2018 while this survey was conducted from 2 to 4 October, 2018. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
24/9/18 |
An order banning the Hong Kong National Party’s operation is gazetted by the government. |
|
22/9/18 |
The Hong Kong Section of Express Rail Link will be launched on September 23. |
|
17/9/18 |
The traffic is paralyzed in the first working day after Super Typhoon Mangkhut hit Hong Kong. |
|
16/9/18 |
Super Typhoon Mangkhut hits Hong Kong. |
|
7/9/18 |
Thirteen protesters who oppose North East New Territories development plan win their appeal at the Court of Final Appeal. |
|
16/8/18 |
Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan residents could apply for identity cards in mainland China from September 1. |
|
14/8/18 |
Andy Chan Ho-tin, convenor of the Hong Kong National Party, delivers his speech in luncheon held by the Foreign Correspondents’ Club. |
|
10/8/18 |
Buildings near the construction site of Exhibition Centre Station of MTR Shatin to Central Link are found to be affected by land subsidence. |
|
9/8/18 |
Buildings near the construction site of To Kwa Wan Station are found to be affected by land subsidence. |
|
7/8/18 |
Five members of the MTR top management team resign because of problems about the construction of the Shatin to Central Link. |
|
14/6/18 |
The Legislative Council passes the third reading of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link (Co-location) Bill. |
|
6/6/18 |
Dishonest practices were exposed in the coupling of steel bars in Hung Hom Station at the Shatin to Central Link. |
|
5/5/18 |
Ted Hui is arrested for snatching an Executive Officer’s phone. |
Online Opinion Analysis
In July 2017, POP started collaborating with uMax Data Technology Limited to conduct “Online Opinion Analysis”. uMax Data would provide technical support concerning social big data to track posts in Facebook pages and various major forums in Hong Kong that mentioned specific political figures or organizations. When public opinion changes very significantly, POP will summarize the popular online posts about the specific political figures or organizations between the two surveys and compile a list of related events. Readers could make their own judgment if the events listed have impact on the related public opinion figures.
Since the latest survey findings reveal that the rating of FTU, the political group with the highest popularity figure, has changed significantly compared to the figure recorded in the last survey, POP conducted “Online Opinion Analysis” to identify the top ten most discussed issues on the internet. The list of most discussed items after eliminating duplications is as follows:
|
FTU urged to set minimum wage at $42.5 per hour. |
|
Chan Yuen-han, Honorary President of FTU, said the 1967 riot was understandable and acceptable while there was no room for tolerance for the Mongkok conflict. |
|
DAB and FTU candidate Elaine Chik won the Eastern District by-election. |
|
FTU voted against using the Legislative Council (Powers and Privileges) Ordinance to investigate problems about the construction of the Shatin to Central Link. |
|
Michael Luk, FTU Legislative Councillor, called for supporting domestic goods during trade war. |
|
Lai Siu-chung, Deputy Director of the KMB branch of a trade union under FTU, apologized for his earlier remark on labour strike. |
|
FTU received multiple requests for assistance over suspension of mainland bank account after money transfer from Hong Kong. |
The results show that online public opinion had been discussing various issues. Whether or not these items could sufficiently explain the changes in the rating of FTU, readers could form their own judgment.
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Tai.
According to our Policy Address follow-up survey, people’s net satisfaction with Carrie Lam’s second Policy Address stays at negative 1 percentage point, while satisfaction rating slightly increases by 2.0 marks to 50.5. In other words, after some initial discussions, people’s appraisal of this year’s Policy Address has not changed significantly. Meanwhile, people’s net satisfaction with CE’s policy direction now stands at positive 7 percentage points, representing a significant decrease of 21 percentage points compared to the first Address delivered by Carrie Lam last year. POP will conduct another round of follow-up survey to map people’s further reaction and the results will be released at the end of October. Whether public opinion would change after many rounds of discussion remains to be seen.
As for the “Top 10 Political Groups”, the support ratings of all political groups remained below 50 marks. In terms of support ratings, compared to six months ago, only the rating of FTU has gone up significantly. Compared to the last survey, all ten political groups have managed to maintain their places in the “top 10” list. In terms of relative rankings, FTU goes up six positions to top the list, CP goes down one position to rank 2nd, LP goes up two positions to rank 3rd, DP remains at the 4th place, Labour Party goes down three positions to rank 5th, DAB goes up two positions to rank 6th, NPP goes down one position to rank 7th, ADPL goes down five positions to rank 8th, LSD and PP remain at the 9th and 10th positions. Besides, the latest support rating of ADPL is again at record low since the survey series was first started in 1991. It should be noted, however, that our “Top 10 Political Groups” only includes groups which are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Other political groups may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are relatively less well-known, they are not included in our final list. As to what events have affected the ups and downs of the popularity of these groups, readers can make their own judgment after reading through detailed records placed in our “Opinion Daily”.
Future Release (Tentative)
Reference – Technical Notes of “Online Opinion Analysis”
Technically, POP research team firstly determines and inputs related keywords to be searched on the platform provided by uMax Data. POP then selects targeted online platforms to be monitored (currently selected: Facebook and forums), and extract the top five most discussed items on each online platform, thus come up with a list of 10 items in total. By eliminating duplications in the top ten items, POP compiles a table which is included in the press release for readers’ reference.
