HKU POP SITE releases the latest figures on the popularity of CE and SARG, and those of the 2003 year-ender surveyBack
| Press Release on December 30, 2003 |
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The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest figures on the popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa, people's appraisal of the performance of the HKSAR Government, as well as the 2003 year-ender survey. For the first two items, this is the last release this year, and half-yearly average figures of these surveys are available in our website, recent figures are summarized as follows: |
| Date of survey | 3-6/11 | 10-12/11 | 15-18/11 | 1-7/12 | 20-23/12 | Latest change |
| Sample base | 1,001 | 1,062 | 1,030 | 1,008 | 1,022 | -- |
| Overall response rate | 60.7% | 63.4% | 64.1% | 62.9% | 66.0% | -- |
| Sampling error of rating(at 95% confidence level)* | +/- 1.4 | +/- 1.4 | +/- 1.4 | +/- 1.4 | +/- 1.4 | -- |
| Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)* | +/- 3% | -- | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | -- |
| Support rating of CH Tung | 44.2 | 42.8 | 43.6 | 42.6 | 43.8 | +1.2 |
| Vote of confidence in CH Tung | 65% | -- | 65% | 68% | 65% | -3% |
| Vote of no confidence in CH Tung | 19% | -- | 17% | 15% | 15% | -- |
| Dissatisfaction rate of Tung's policy direction** | -- | -- | -- | -- | 47% | +2% |
| Satisfaction rate of Tung's policy direction** | -- | -- | -- | -- | 15% | +3% |
| Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance** | -- | -- | 56% | -- | 51% | -5% |
| Satisfaction rate of SARG performance** | -- | -- | 13% | -- | 17% | +4% |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. |
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Results showed that the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa registered in late December was 43.8 marks. Meanwhile, 65% of the respondents did not support Tung as the Chief Executive, whereas 15% did. On the other hand, 47% were dissatisfied with Tung's policy direction, 15% were satisfied. As for people's appraisal of the performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest findings revealed that 51% expressed dissatisfaction, whilst 17% were satisfied. |
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As for people's year-end review of 2003 and their appraisal of future development, the figures are summarized below, together with parallel figures obtained in recent years: |
| Date of survey | 4-12/12/00 | 7-9/12/01 | 13-18/12/02 | 20-23/12/03 | Latest change |
| Sample base | 1,040 | 1,052 | 1,026 | 1,022 | -- |
| Overall response rate | 52.7% | 60.0% | 67.6% | 66.0% | -- |
| Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)* | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | +/- 3% | -- |
| Respondents who were happy for the year past** | 45% | 39% | 39% | 37% | -2% |
| Respondents who were unhappy for the year past** | 19% | 24% | 27% | 23% | -4% |
| Dissatisfied with HK's development for the year past** | 34% | 58% | 62% | 46% | -16% |
| Satisfied with HK's development for the year past** | 29% | 16% | 14% | 25% | +11% |
| Expected personal development to become better next year | 45% | 28% | 37% | 52% | +15% |
| Expected personal development to become worse next year | 10% | 23% | 21% | 9% | -12% |
| Expected HK's development to be better next year | 54% | 28% | 42% | 74% | +32% |
| Expected HK's development to be worse next year | 11% | 36% | 28% | 6% | -22% |
| Wished HK becomes a prosperous society | 41% | 47% | 47% | 38% | -9% |
| Wished HK becomes a fair society | 18% | 16% | 20% | 24% | +4% |
| Wished HK becomes a free society | 16% | 17% | 22% | 22% | -- |
| Perceived economy to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year | 56% | 70% | 78% | 54% | -24% |
| Perceived constitutional development to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year | 3% | 3% | 4% | 8% | +4% |
| New year wishes: Economic-related | 30% | 45% | 43% | 31% | -12% |
| New year wishes: Personal health | 8% | 7% | 7% | 15% | +8% |
| New year wishes: Personal career or studies | 16% | 9% | 12% | 13% | +1% |
| New year wishes: World peace | 6% | 9% | 9% | 10% | +1% |
| No special wish | 14% | 12% | 10% | 12% | +2% |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. |
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Looking back to the whole year of 2003, a recent low of 37% of the respondents said they were happy, 23% were not. As for Hong Kong's development in the year past, 46% said they were dissatisfied, 25% were satisfied. As regards the prospect for the coming year, 52% believed their personal development would become better, 9% thought they would become worse off. Meanwhile, 74% expected Hong Kong's development in general to become "better" next year, 6% said it would be worse. |
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Findings also suggested that, given the choice of a "prosperous", "free" and "fair" society, 38% of the respondents would wish Hong Kong to become "a prosperous society", while 24% and 22% respectively opted for a "fair" and "free" society. Besides, 54% considered that "economy" to be the most important problem that the government should tackle next year, 8% thought "constitutional development" was the most pressing. |
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As for people's new year wishes, 31% were economic-related, 15% on personal health, and 13% on personal career or studies. Meanwhile, 10% wished for peace on earth, while 12% did not make any wish. |
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Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, made the following analysis: "The survey was conducted before CE made his appointment of District Councillors, his popularity was still in the low. SARG's popularity, however, has recovered a bit, but in terms of half-yearly averages, both of them were at historic low. Regarding people's year-end appraisals, however, the tide seems to have turned. Except for the year of 1998, for the past ten years, 2003 was people's least happy year. However, their expectation of the year to come has been very positive, much higher than any of the past ten years. People probably think that the worst is over." |
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POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be January 6, 2004, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest results of people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems" will be released. |
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Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors. |
