HKU POP releases the latest rankings of political figures and the PSIBack
Press Release on October 2, 2018
| Detailed Findings (People's Most Familiar Political Figures)
| Detailed Findings (Public Sentiment Index Feature Page) |
Special Announcements
1. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has also added mobile numbers to the sampling frame. After three months of testing, in October 2017, POP formalized the use of mixed samples as its standard for regular opinion surveys using a landline and mobile sample ratio of 4 to 1. Starting from April 2018, POP further increased the proportion of mobile sample, which the landline and mobile sample ratio became 2 to 1. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.
2. In September 2017, POP started to use “effective response rate” to report surveys’ contact information. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
3. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of regular rating surveys of current CE Carrie Lam, former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,002 Hong Kong people between September 18 and 20 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. According to our latest survey, Carrie Lam continues to be the most visible political figure in Hong Kong. Donald Tsang ranks 2nd while Leung Chun-ying ranks 3rd. Compared to 5 months ago, 9 people remain on the “top 10” list. Paul Chan who ranked 7th last time has fallen out of the list after dropping to the 12th position. He is replaced by Lee Cheuk-yan who has gone up from the 29th place to occupy the 10th place. The ups and downs within the latest list should be good reflections of our changing political environment. If we would like to focus on long term development, we can use the overall rankings accumulated over five years. Figures show that Leung Chun-ying, Carrie Lam, Leung Kwok-hung, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa are people’s most familiar political figures in the long run. It should be noted, however, that our ranking of “people’s most familiar political figures” is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong. The maximum sampling error of percentages of people’s most familiar political figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. The response rate of this survey is 56%.
As for the Public Sentiment Index (PSI), the latest PSI stands at 104.0, decreased by 1.6 points since early September. This time the two component scores of PSI go in opposite directions. Specifically, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance decreases by 5.2 points to 99.4, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment goes up by 2.2 points to 100.6.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the survey on people’s most familiar political figures, the sample size is 1,002 successful cases, not 1,002 x 55.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
I. People’s Most Familiar Political Figures
Latest Figures
From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity group is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Sample size |
Effective response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
|
18-20/9/2018 |
1,002 |
55.6% |
+/-3% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error.
This survey on people’s most familiar political figures has been conducted for many years. Between 1994 and 2005, the survey was conducted and released in the form of “top 10 political figures” using our usual “top 10” or “top 5” series survey design, which involved both naming and rating stages. Starting from October 2005, we simplified our “top 10 political figures” survey by just recording and analyzing the “naming” results, because we have already developed over time numerous rating surveys covering CE, government officials, members of Legislative and Executive Councils, and so on. Moreover, in our presentation of findings, different from the other “top 10” rating series, we introduced rankings from 1 to 50 for “people’s most familiar political figures”, as well as average accumulative rankings calculated from the past 10 surveys spanning over about five years, in order to indicate the ups-and-downs of these political figures in the long run. Please refer to our POP Site for details. Herewith the result of our latest survey on “people’s most familiar political figures”, other rankings beyond the “Top 10” can be found in the POP Site:
|
Date of survey |
15-18/5/17 |
16-19/10/17 |
16-19/4/18 |
18-20/9/18 |
Average ranking over the past 10 surveys [9] |
||||
|
Sample base |
1,000[8] |
1,009[8] |
1,001[8] |
1,002[8] |
-- |
||||
|
Response rate* |
71.5% |
64.5% |
56.4% |
55.6% |
-- |
||||
|
Finding / Rank |
% |
Rank |
% |
Rank |
% |
Rank |
%[7] |
Rank |
-- |
|
Carrie Lam |
57% |
2 |
44% |
1 |
46% |
1 |
38+/-4% |
1 |
2.6 |
|
Donald Tsang |
34% |
3 |
24% |
3 |
27% |
2 |
28+/-4% |
2 |
4.8 |
|
Leung Chun-ying |
62% |
1 |
25% |
2 |
26% |
3 |
26+/-4% |
3 |
1.7 |
|
Tung Chee-hwa |
29% |
4 |
19% |
6 |
25% |
4 |
23+/-4% |
4 |
6.0 |
|
Leung Kwok-hung |
27% |
5 |
24% |
4 |
23% |
5 |
19+/-3% |
5 |
3.6 |
|
Martin Lee |
17% |
9 |
12% |
9 |
14% |
10 |
18+/-3% |
6 |
11.9 |
|
Jasper Tsang |
22% |
8 |
16% |
8 |
16% |
9 |
16+/-3% |
7 |
6.5 |
|
Regina Ip |
27% |
6 |
17% |
7 |
21% |
6 |
15+/-3% |
8 |
6.1 |
|
John Tsang |
26% |
7 |
21% |
5 |
18% |
8 |
13+/-3% |
9 |
8.2 |
|
Lee Cheuk-yan |
4% |
30 |
5% |
25 |
4% |
29 |
10+/-3% |
10 |
22.6 |
* “Overall response rate” was used before September 2017, thereafter, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] The sub-sample size in May 2017 was 546, that in October 2017 was 656, that in April 2018 was 615, and that in September 2018 was 552.
[9] The earliest of the past 10 surveys was conducted during April 22 to 30, 2014. For each survey, those who ranked 50th or beyond and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average rankings.
In our naming survey conducted in mid-September, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 political figures whom they knew best. Carrie Lam was the top with 38% of respondents naming her. Donald Tsang, Leung Chun-ying and Tung Chee-hwa occupied the 2nd to 4th places, with 28%, 26% and 23% of respondents naming them respectively. The 5th to 10th ranks fell to Leung Kwok-hung, Martin Lee, Jasper Tsang, Regina Ip, John Tsang and Lee Cheuk-yan respectively, and percentages of respondents who named them were 19%, 18%, 16%, 15%, 13% and 10%. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. For easy reference, POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since March 1997.
Herewith some of the results of our “people’s most familiar political figures” surveys accumulated over past 10 surveys spanning over about five years:
|
4-7/11/2013──16-19/4/2018 [10] |
22-30/4/2014──18-20/9/2018 [10] |
||||||||||||
|
Overall rank |
Political figures |
Av. rank for 10 surveys |
Overall rank |
Political figures |
Av. rank for 10 surveys |
Overall rank |
Political figures |
Av. rank for 10 surveys |
Overall rank |
Political figures |
Av. rank for 10 surveys |
||
|
1 |
Leung Chun-ying |
1.5 |
11 |
Martin Lee |
13.1 |
1 |
Leung Chun-ying |
1.7 |
|
11 |
Martin Lee |
11.9 |
|
|
2 |
Carrie Lam |
3.3 |
12 |
Henry Tang |
16.2 |
2 |
Carrie Lam |
2.6 |
|
12 |
Henry Tang |
17.0 |
|
|
3 |
Leung Kwok-hung |
3.5 |
13 |
Rita Fan |
16.3 |
3 |
Leung Kwok-hung |
3.6 |
|
13 |
Emily Lau |
17.2 |
|
|
4 |
Donald Tsang |
4.8 |
13 |
Emily Lau |
16.3 |
4 |
Donald Tsang |
4.8 |
|
14 |
Rita Fan |
17.4 |
|
|
5 |
Regina Ip |
5.6 |
15 |
Michael Tien |
18.6 |
5 |
Tung Chee-hwa |
6.0 |
|
15 |
Michael Tien |
18.0 |
|
|
6 |
Tung Chee-hwa |
6.1 |
15 |
James Tien |
18.6 |
6 |
Regina Ip |
6.1 |
|
16 |
James Tien |
19.2 |
|
|
7 |
Jasper Tsang |
6.8 |
17 |
Alan Leong |
19.3 |
7 |
Jasper Tsang |
6.5 |
|
17 |
Alan Leong |
19.5 |
|
|
8 |
John Tsang |
8.5 |
17 |
Albert Ho |
19.3 |
8 |
John Tsang |
8.2 |
|
18 |
Albert Ho |
20.1 |
|
|
9 |
Anson Chan |
10.3 |
19 |
Starry Lee |
22.5 |
9 |
Anson Chan |
11.2 |
|
19 |
Starry Lee |
21.6 |
|
|
10 |
Wong Yuk-man |
10.7 |
20 |
Paul Chan |
23.0 |
10 |
Wong Yuk-man |
11.6 |
|
20 |
Paul Chan |
21.7 |
|
|
20 |
Lee Cheuk-yan |
23.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
[10] For each survey, those who ranked 50th or beyond and those not on the list are counted as 50th in our calculation of average rankings.
Based on the results of the past 10 surveys, Leung Chun-ying has the highest overall rank with an average ranking of 1.7. The overall ranks of Carrie Lam and Leung Kwok-hung come 2nd and 3rd respectively, with average rankings of 2.6 and 3.6. The overall ranks of Donald Tsang, Tung Chee-hwa, Regina Ip and Jasper Tsang come 4th to 7th respectively, with average rankings of 4.8, 6.0, 6.1 and 6.5. The 8th to 10th overall ranks go to John Tsang, Anson Chan and Wong Yuk-man with corresponding average rankings of 8.2, 11.2 and 11.6.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from April 16 to 19, 2018, while this survey was conducted from September 18 to 20, 2018. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
16/9/18 |
Super Typhoon Mangkhut hits Hong Kong. |
|
7/9/18 |
Thirteen protesters who oppose North East New Territories development plan win their appeal at the Court of Final Appeal. |
|
23/8/18 |
The Hong Kong Section of Express Rail Link will be commissioned on September 23. |
|
17/8/18 |
The Leisure and Cultural Services Department announces that the Lion Rock Park is temporarily closed for a month to prevent the spread of dengue virus. |
|
16/8/18 |
Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan residents could apply for identity cards in mainland China from September 1. |
|
14/8/18 |
Andy Chan Ho-tin, convenor of the Hong Kong National Party, delivers his speech in luncheon held by the Foreign Correspondents’ Club. |
|
7/8/18 |
Five members of the MTR top management team resign because of problems about the construction of the Shatin to Central Link. |
|
20/7/18 |
The former Chief Executive Donald Tsang loses his appeal and is required to go back to prison. |
|
17/7/18 |
The government bans the Hong Kong National Party using the Societies Ordinance. |
|
28/6/18 |
The Executive Council approves three new initiatives on housing. |
|
11/6/18 |
Edward Leung Tin-kei is sentenced for 6 years for rioting in Mong Kok during the Lunar New Year in 2016. |
|
3/5/18 |
Chief Executive Carrie Lam attends the Legislative Council question-and-answer session. |
II. Public Sentiment Index
Background
The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal, the grading reference of the scores are shown below. For methodological detailed please refer to the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk.
POP started to pilot study the “Public Sentiment Index” in year 2010 in collaboration with NowTV. The first survey was conducted in June 2010, followed by a series of monthly tracking surveys in 2011. There were altogether 13 surveys, covered by 11 releases from March 2011 to January 2012. All results have been uploaded to the POP Site.
At the end of June 2012, before the 15th anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong, POP officially released a “PSI analysis” with figures dating back to 1992, spanning over 20 years. Moreover, the frequency of the study was set at twice a month. In October 2012, echoing the start of a new Legislative Council, POP decided to set the cut-off date of all PSI analyses at the Sunday proceeding every 15th and last day of month, whereas the release date was set at the first Thursday following the cut-off date. In July 2017, after the 20th anniversary of the handover, POP further streamlined the release date and mode of PSI analyses to become POP Site release only for the first analysis of each month, and POP Site plus press release for the second analysis of each month. At the same time, the second release was shifted to the first Tuesday of the following month, except under special circumstances.
Cut-off date of the PSI figures released by POP today is September 23, 2018, while that of the next round of release will be October 7, 2018. The tentative release date for the next release will be October 11, 2018 (Thursday).
Latest Figures of PSI
The PSI released by POP today shows that as of September 23, 2018, the latest Public Sentiment Index (PSI) is 104.0, down 1.6 from early September. As for the Government Appraisal (GA) and Society Appraisal (SA), the scores are 99.4 and 100.6. The former went down by 5.2, while the latter went up by 2.2. The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:
|
|
|||
|
Latest figure |
Public Sentiment Index
|
Government Appraisal
|
Society Appraisal
|
Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:
|
Release date |
12/7/18 |
7/8/18 |
16/8/18 |
4/9/18 |
13/9/18 |
2/10/18 |
Latest change[12] |
|
Cut-off date |
8/7/18 |
29/7/18 |
12/8/18 |
26/8/18 |
9/9/18 |
23/9/18 |
-- |
|
Public Sentiment Index (PSI) |
108.9 |
107.5 |
106.8 |
105.3 |
105.7 |
104.0 |
-1.6 |
|
Government Appraisal (GA) |
105.4 |
102.9 |
101.8 |
103.9 |
104.6 |
99.4 |
-5.2 |
|
Rating of CE |
55.6 |
56.2 |
55.4 |
55.3 |
57.3 |
50.8 |
-6.5 |
|
Net approval rate of CE |
12% |
8% |
1% |
14% |
10% |
-4% |
-15% |
|
Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.7[11] |
2.8 |
2.8[11] |
2.8 |
-- |
|
Mean value of people’s trust in SARG |
3.0 |
3.0 |
3.0[11] |
3.0[11] |
3.0[11] |
3.0[11] |
-- |
|
Society Appraisal (SA) |
103.3 |
103.3 |
103.3 |
98.4 |
98.4 |
100.6 |
+2.2 |
|
People’s satisfaction with political condition |
2.3 |
2.3[11] |
2.3[11] |
2.2 |
2.2[11] |
2.3 |
+0.1 |
|
Weighting index of political condition |
0.31[11] |
0.31[11] |
0.31[11] |
0.31[11] |
0.31[11] |
0.31[11] |
-- |
|
People’s satisfaction with economic condition |
3.1 |
3.1[11] |
3.1[11] |
3.0 |
3.0[11] |
2.9 |
-0.1 |
|
Weighting index of economic condition |
0.34[11] |
0.34[11] |
0.34[11] |
0.34[11] |
0.34[11] |
0.34[11] |
-- |
|
People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition |
2.7 |
2.7[11] |
2.7[11] |
2.6 |
2.6[11] |
2.6 |
-- |
|
Weighting index of livelihood condition |
0.35[11] |
0.35[11] |
0.35[11] |
0.35[11] |
0.35[11] |
0.35[11] |
-- |
[11] POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.
[12] Latest changes are based on the differences between the exact values of the two figures, but not the rounded figures shown in the table.
As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:
|
Score value |
Percentile |
Score value |
Percentile |
|
140-200 |
Highest 1% |
0-60 |
Lowest 1% |
|
125 |
Highest 5% |
75 |
Lowest 5% |
|
120 |
Highest 10% |
80 |
Lowest 10% |
|
110 |
Highest 25% |
90 |
Lowest 25% |
|
100 being normal level, meaning half above half below |
|||
The latest PSI of 104.0 can be considered as among the best 39% across the past 20 years or so, while the GA and SA scores of 99.4 and 100.6 can be considered as among the worst 48% and best 48% respectively.
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.
The purpose of our ranking of political figures is to show the changing political ecology by studying the ups and downs of people’s familiarity with these figures over time. According to our latest survey, Carrie Lam continues to be the most visible political figure in Hong Kong. Donald Tsang ranks 2nd while Leung Chun-ying ranks 3rd. Compared to 5 months ago, 9 people remain on the “top 10” list. Paul Chan who ranked 7th last time has fallen out of the list after dropping to the 12th position. He is replaced by Lee Cheuk-yan who has gone up from the 29th place to occupy the 10th place. The ups and downs within the latest list should be good reflections of our changing political environment. If we would like to focus on long term development, we can use the overall rankings accumulated over five years. Figures show that Leung Chun-ying, Carrie Lam, Leung Kwok-hung, Donald Tsang and Tung Chee-hwa are people’s most familiar political figures in the long run. It should be noted, however, that our ranking of “people’s most familiar political figures” is based on our surveys which requested respondents to name local political figures without prompting. This kind of familiarity measurement is not the same as prompted ratings. In other words, those high on the list may not be the most supported figures, while those lower may have a different ranking if we use a prompting method. However, those who scored best in unprompted surveys are no doubt the most well-known political figures in Hong Kong.
As for the Public Sentiment Index (PSI), the latest PSI stands at 104.0, decreased by 1.6 points since early September. This time the two component scores of PSI go in opposite directions. Specifically, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance decreases by 5.2 points to 99.4, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment goes up by 2.2 points to 100.6. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”.
Future Releases (Tentative)
Reference Materials on Survey on PSI Please refer to the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk.
|
