HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack
Press Release on August 28, 2018
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) | (People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government)
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with Current Political, Economic and livelihood conditions) |
Special Announcements
1. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has also added mobile numbers to the sampling frame. After three months of testing, in October 2017, POP formalized the use of mixed samples as its standard for regular opinion surveys using a landline and mobile sample ratio of 4 to 1. Starting from April 2018, POP further increased the proportion of mobile sample, which the landline and mobile sample ratio became 2 to 1. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.
2. In September 2017, POP started to use “effective response rate” to report surveys’ contact information. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
3. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP today released via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data and related respondents’ demographics of the latest rating survey of CE Carrie Lam, together with those of regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung released earlier, for public examination. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,022 Hong Kong people between 20 and 22 August 2018 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is now 55.3 marks. Her latest approval rate is 49%, disapproval rate 35%, giving a net popularity of positive 14 percentage points, which has significantly increased by 12 percentage points from two weeks ago. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE in terms of both support rate and rating. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has not changed much since a month ago. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 37%, dissatisfaction rate 40%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 3 percentage points. As for the society’s appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are positive 7, negative 23 and negative 47 percentage points. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 53%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,022 successful interviews, not 1,022 x 53.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of ratings not more than +/-1.6 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity group is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Sample size |
Effective response rate |
Maximum sampling error
|
|
20-22/8/2018 |
1,022 |
53.0% |
+/-3% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam and the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
4-7/6/18 |
14-21/6/18 |
3-5/7/18 |
18-23/7/18 |
6-9/8/18 |
20-22/8/18 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base |
1,001 |
1,000 |
1,001 |
1,002 |
1,000 |
1,022 |
-- |
|
Effective response rate* |
56.3% |
59.6% |
49.5% |
49.0% |
51.2% |
53.0% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error[7] |
-- |
|
Rating of CE Carrie Lam |
54.3 |
54.3 |
55.6 |
56.2 |
55.4 |
55.3+/-1.6 |
-0.1 |
|
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
48%[9] |
44%[9] |
49%[9] |
47% |
45% |
49+/-3% |
+4% |
|
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
40%[9] |
42% |
38% |
38% |
44%[9] |
35+/-3% |
-9%[9] |
|
Net approval rate |
7%[9] |
2% |
12%[9] |
8% |
1% |
14+/-6% |
+12%[9] |
|
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[8] |
34% |
35% |
39% |
32%[9] |
-- |
37+/-4% |
+4% |
|
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[8] |
42%[9] |
44% |
39% |
43% |
-- |
40+/-4% |
-3% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-8%[9] |
-10% |
0% |
-11%[9] [10] |
-- |
-3+/-8% |
+7% |
|
Mean value[8] |
2.8 (Base=614) |
2.7 (Base=625) |
2.9 (Base=567) |
2.7[9] [10] (Base=582) |
-- |
2.8+/-0.1 (Base=541) |
+0.1 |
|
Trust in HKSAR Government[8] |
49%[9] |
51% |
45%[9] |
46% |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Distrust in HKSAR Government[8] |
36%[9] |
35% |
36% |
37% |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Net trust |
13%[9] |
16% |
9% |
9% |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Mean value[8] |
3.1[9] (Base=616) |
3.1 (Base=618) |
3.0 (Base=562) |
3.0 (Base=583) |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
Current economic condition:
|
46% |
45% |
43% |
-- |
-- |
40+/-3% |
-3% |
|
Current economic condition:
|
32% |
31% |
33% |
-- |
-- |
33+/-3% |
-- |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
14%[9] |
13% |
10% |
-- |
-- |
7+/-5% |
-3% |
|
Mean value[8] |
3.1 (Base=990) |
3.1 (Base=978) |
3.1 (Base=987) |
-- |
-- |
3.0+/-0.1 (Base=998) |
-0.1 |
|
Current livelihood condition:
|
30%[9] |
28% |
31% |
-- |
-- |
29+/-3% |
-3% |
|
Current livelihood condition:
|
49%[9] |
51% |
48% |
-- |
-- |
51+/-3% |
+4% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-19%[9] |
-23% |
-16% |
-- |
-- |
-23+/-5% |
-6% |
|
Mean value[8] |
2.6 (Base=982) |
2.6 (Base=981) |
2.7 (Base=992) |
-- |
-- |
2.6+/-0.1 (Base=1,006) |
-0.1 |
|
Current political condition:
|
20%[9] |
22% |
19% |
-- |
-- |
16+/-2% |
-3% |
|
Current political condition:
|
63% |
59%[9] |
61% |
-- |
-- |
63+/-3% |
+2% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-43%[9] |
-37%[9] |
-42% |
-- |
-- |
-47+/-5% |
-5% |
|
Mean value[8] |
2.2 (Base=939) |
2.3 (Base=924) |
2.3 (Base=948) |
-- |
-- |
2.2+/-0.1 (Base=965) |
-0.1 |
* In July 2018, POP revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. This question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 549.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the changes would not have gone beyond the sampling errors.
The latest survey showed that CE Carrie Lam scored 55.3 marks, and 49% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is positive 14 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 37% were satisfied, whereas 40% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 3 percentage points. The mean score is 2.8, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general. As for people’s satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates were 40%, 29% and 16% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were positive 7, negative 23 and negative 47 percentage points. The mean scores of the economic, livelihood and political conditions were 3.0, 2.6 and 2.2, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general.
Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age and education attainment. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rating and support rate of Carrie Lam as Chief Executive by respondents’ age and education attainment, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:
|
Date of survey: 20-22/8/2018 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Rating of CE Carrie Lam[11] |
44.7+/-3.5
|
53.7+/-2.7
|
60.2+/-2.2
|
55.3+/-1.6
|
|
|
Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[11] |
Support |
32+/-7%
|
47+/-5%
|
56+/-5%
|
49+/-3%
|
|
Oppose |
56+/-8%
|
39+/-5%
|
25+/-4%
|
35+/-3%
|
|
|
Don’t know / Hard to say |
12+/-5%
|
14+/-4%
|
19+/-4%
|
16+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
|
Date of survey: 20-22/8/2018 |
Primary or below |
Secondary |
Tertiary or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Rating of CE Carrie Lam[12] |
63.6+/-3.4
|
55.4+/-2.2
|
50.4+/-2.8
|
55.3+/-1.6
|
|
|
Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[12] |
Support |
63+/-7%
|
50+/-5%
|
40+/-5%
|
49+/-3%
|
|
Oppose |
16+/-5%
|
37+/-4%
|
44+/-5%
|
35+/-3%
|
|
|
Don’t know / Hard to say |
21+/-6%
|
13+/-3%
|
16+/-4%
|
16+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 5 July, 2018 while this survey was conducted from 20 to 22 August, 2018. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
17/8/18 |
The Leisure and Cultural Services Department announces that the Lion Rock Park is temporarily closed for a month to prevent the spread of dengue virus. |
|
16/8/18 |
Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan residents could apply for identity cards in mainland China from September 1. |
|
14/8/18 |
Andy Chan Ho-tin, convenor of the Hong Kong National Party, delivers his speech in luncheon held by the Foreign Correspondents’ Club. |
|
10/8/18 |
Buildings near the construction site of Exhibition Centre Station of MTR Shatin to Central Link are found to be affected by land subsidence. |
|
9/8/18 |
Buildings near the construction site of To Kwa Wan Station are found to be affected by land subsidence. |
|
7/8/18 |
Five members of the MTR top management team resign because of problems about the construction of the Shatin to Central Link. |
|
1/8/18 |
Media continues to report on China-US trade war. |
|
29/7/18 |
The Mong Kok pedestrian zone is open for the last day. |
|
20/7/18 |
The former Chief Executive Donald Tsang loses his appeal and is required to go back to prison. |
|
17/7/18 |
The government bans the Hong Kong National Party using the Societies Ordinance. |
|
13/7/18 |
Housing Authority suggests setting the price of Home Ownership Scheme flats to 52% of market value and tightening resale restrictions. |
|
3/7/18 |
China Light and Power and Hong Kong Electric are to raise their tariffs and the government will subsidize each household with $3,000. |
Online Opinion Analysis
In July 2017, POP started collaborating with uMax Data Technology Limited to conduct “Online Opinion Analysis”. uMax Data would provide technical support concerning social big data to track posts in Facebook pages and various major forums in Hong Kong that mentioned specific political figures or organizations. When public opinion changes very significantly, POP will summarize the popular online posts about the specific political figures or organizations between the two surveys and compile a list of related events. Readers could make their own judgment if the events listed have impact on the related public opinion figures.
Since the latest survey findings reveal that the net approval rate of CE Carrie Lam has changed significantly compared to the figure recorded in the last survey, POP conducted “Online Opinion Analysis” to identify the top ten most discussed issues on the internet. The list of most discussed items after eliminating duplications is as follows:
|
Political parties urged Carrie Lam to thoroughly look into problems about the construction of the Shatin to Central Link. |
|
Carrie Lam said the government would look into problems about the construction of Hung Hom Station and find out who are to be held responsible. |
|
Carrie Lam used Facebook Live for a consultation session. |
|
Carrie Lam refused to abolish the one-way permit scheme, saying that family reunion is a human right. |
|
Legislative Councillors wrote to Carrie Lam and urged her to provide assistance to Tang Lung-wai. |
|
Netizens discussed the new housing policies of Carrie Lam. |
The results show that online public opinion had been discussing various issues. Whether or not these items could sufficiently explain the changes in CE popularity ratings, readers could form their own judgment.
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is now 55.3 marks. Her latest approval rate is 49%, disapproval rate 35%, giving a net popularity of positive 14 percentage points, which has significantly increased by 12 percentage points from two weeks ago. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE in terms of both support rate and rating. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has not changed much since a month ago. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 37%, dissatisfaction rate 40%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 3 percentage points. As for the society’s appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are positive 7, negative 23 and negative 47 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily” and “Online Opinion Analysis”.
Future Release (Tentative)
Reference – Technical Notes of “Online Opinion Analysis”
Technically, POP research team firstly determines and inputs related keywords to be searched on the platform provided by uMax Data. POP then selects targeted online platforms to be monitored (currently selected: Facebook and forums), and extract the top five most discussed items on each online platform, thus come up with a list of 10 items in total. By eliminating duplications in the top ten items, POP compiles a table which is included in the press release for readers’ reference.
