HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the Government and ratings of the best public transportationBack
Press Release on July 31, 2018
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) | (People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government)
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government) |
| Detailed Findings Ratings of the best public transportation|
Special Announcements
1. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has also added mobile numbers to the sampling frame. After three months of testing, in October 2017, POP formalized the use of mixed samples as its standard for regular opinion surveys using a landline and mobile sample ratio of 4 to 1. Starting from April 2018, POP further increased the proportion of mobile sample, which the landline and mobile sample ratio became 2 to 1. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.
2. In September 2017, POP started to use “effective response rate” to report surveys’ contact information. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
3. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP today released via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data and related respondents’ demographics of the latest rating survey of CE Carrie Lam, together with those of regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung released earlier, for public examination. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,002 Hong Kong people between 18 and 23 July 2018 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam have not changed much since two weeks ago. Her latest popularity rating is 56.2 marks. Her latest approval rate is 47%, disapproval rate 38%, giving a net popularity of positive 8 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE in terms of both support rate and rating. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has dropped compared to two weeks ago. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 32%, dissatisfaction rate 43%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 11 percentage points. As for people’s trust in the government, the trust rate now stands at 46%, distrust rate 37%, giving a net trust of positive 9 percentage points. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 49%.
As for the best public transportations, POP conducted a two-stage survey in July and the results show that the most well-known public transportation was KMB. Results of rating survey also show that KMB has the best CSR reputation in the sector, scoring 59.7 marks, followed by Citybus and MTR, with 59.5 and 56.2 marks respectively. POP interviewed 502 and 500 Hong Kong people by means of random telephone surveys for the first stage naming survey and second stage rating survey respectively. The sampling errors of rating figures are no greater than +/-2.1 marks at 95% confidence level. The response rate of the rating survey is 51%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[3] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Popularity of CE and the Government
[4] The sample size of this survey is 1,002 successful interviews, not 1,002 x 49.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[5] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of ratings not more than +/-1.7 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.
Ratings of the Best Public Transportations
[6] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 502 successful interviews, not 502 x 47.4% response rate, while that of the second stage rating survey is 500 successful interviews, not 500 x 50.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[7] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling errors of ratings not more than +/-2.1 at 95% confidence level”.
I. Popularity of CE and the Government
Latest Figures
From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity group is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to figures collected in the 2016 by-census regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population and the 2017 educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution obtained from the Census and Statistics Department. In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Sample size |
Effective response rate |
Maximum sampling error
|
|
18-23/7/2018 |
1,002 |
49.0% |
+/-3% |
[8] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam and the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
4-9/5/18 |
21-25/5/18 |
4-7/6/18 |
14-21/6/18 |
3-5/7/18 |
18-23/7/18 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base |
1,017 |
1,009 |
1,001 |
1,000 |
1,001 |
1,002 |
-- |
|
Effective response rate* |
59.5% |
55.9% |
56.3% |
59.6% |
49.5% |
49.0% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error[9] |
-- |
|
Rating of CE Carrie Lam |
57.8[11] |
52.7[11] |
54.3 |
54.3 |
55.6 |
56.2+/-1.7 |
+0.6 |
|
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
49%[11] |
39%[11] |
48%[11] |
44%[11] |
49%[11] |
47+/-3% |
-2% |
|
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
35%[11] |
44%[11] |
40%[11] |
42% |
38% |
38+/-3% |
+1% |
|
Net approval rate |
13%[11] |
-5%[11] |
7%[11] |
2% |
12%[11] |
8+/-6% |
-3% |
|
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[10] |
37% |
30%[11] |
34% |
35% |
39% |
32+/-4% |
-6%[11] |
|
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[10] |
41% |
48%[11] |
42%[11] |
44% |
39% |
43+/-4% |
+4% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-3% |
-19%[11] |
-8%[11] |
-10% |
0% |
-11+/-7% |
-11%[11] [12] |
|
Mean value[10] |
2.9 (Base=552) |
2.7[11] (Base=542) |
2.8 (Base=614) |
2.7 (Base=625) |
2.9 (Base=567) |
2.7+/-0.1 (Base=582) |
-0.2[11] [12] |
|
Trust in HKSAR Government[10] |
47% |
41%[11] |
49%[11] |
51% |
45%[11] |
46+/-4% |
+1% |
|
Distrust in HKSAR Government[10] |
35% |
43%[11] |
36%[11] |
35% |
36% |
37+/-4% |
+1% |
|
Net trust |
11% |
-2%[11] |
13%[11] |
16% |
9% |
9+/-7% |
-- |
|
Mean value[10] |
3.1 (Base=551) |
2.8[11] (Base=542) |
3.1[11] (Base=616) |
3.1 (Base=618) |
3.0 (Base=562) |
3.0+/-0.1 (Base=583) |
-- |
* In July 2018, POP revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. This question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 595.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the changes would not have gone beyond the sampling errors.
The latest survey showed that CE Carrie Lam scored 56.2 marks, and 47% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is positive 8 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 32% were satisfied, whereas 43% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 11 percentage points. The mean score is 2.7, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general. Meanwhile, 46% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, the net trust value is positive 9 percentage points, while the mean score is 3.0, which is close to “half-half”.
Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age and education attainment. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rating and support rate of Carrie Lam as Chief Executive by respondents’ age and education attainment, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:
|
Date of survey: 18-23/7/2018 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Rating of CE Carrie Lam[13] |
45.5+/-3.5
|
54.6+/-2.8
|
61.3+/-2.4
|
56.2+/-1.7
|
|
|
Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[13] |
Support |
27+/-7%
|
45+/-5%
|
55+/-5%
|
47+/-3%
|
|
Oppose |
67+/-7%
|
40+/-5%
|
27+/-4%
|
38+/-3%
|
|
|
Don’t know / Hard to say |
6+/-4%
|
15+/-4%
|
18+/-3%
|
15+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[13] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
|
Date of survey: 18-23/7/2018 |
Primary or below |
Secondary |
Tertiary or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Rating of CE Carrie Lam[14] |
61.9+/-3.9
|
57.1+/-2.4
|
51.5+/-2.8
|
56.1+/-1.7
|
|
|
Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[14] |
Support |
60+/-7%
|
49+/-5%
|
36+/-5%
|
47+/-3%
|
|
Oppose |
22+/-6%
|
37+/-4%
|
50+/-6%
|
38+/-3%
|
|
|
Don’t know / Hard to say |
19+/-6%
|
14+/-3%
|
14+/-4%
|
15+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[14] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 5 July, 2018 while this survey was conducted from 18 to 23 July, 2018. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
20/7/18 |
The former Chief Executive Donald Tsang loses his appeal and is required to go back to prison. |
|
17/7/18 |
The government bans the Hong Kong National Party using the Societies Ordinance. |
|
13/7/18 |
Housing Authority suggests setting the price of Home Ownership Scheme flats to 52% of market value and tightening resale restrictions. |
|
3/7/18 |
China Light and Power and Hong Kong Electric are to raise their tariffs and the government will subsidize each household with $3,000. |
II. Ratings of the Best Public Transportations
In 2008, HKUPOP initiated a tracking survey series on Corporate Social Responsibility, aiming to gauge the public image of different commercial organizations in order to encourage them to become ethical companies and select the best corporations. There are a total of six modules under this survey series, namely, 1) Public Transportation, 2) Telecommunication, 3) Banks and Financial Services, 4) Real Estate and Property Development, 5) Retail, and 6) Fast Food Restaurant. From January to December 2015, the survey was sponsored by Metro Broadcast Corporation Ltd and branded as “Metro CSR Index”. Results were released every month in the website of Metro Radio.
At the beginning, these surveys were conducted once every three months, with two different modules each time. From July 2017, the frequency was changed to once every six months, with one module only for each survey. From July 2018, the frequency was further changed to once every year, with one module only for each survey. The surveys were conducted in two stages. In the first stage, respondents were requested to nominate, unprompted, at most 5 corporations that they can think of. POP would then select from this list of unprompted nominees the 3 most frequently cited names for the next stage survey. During the second stage survey, respondents would be asked to rate the CSR performance for each of the shortlisted corporations using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates extremely poor performance, 100 indicates extremely good performance, and 50 means half-half.
Latest Figures
From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity group is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to figures collected in the 2016 by-census regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population and the 2017 educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution obtained from the Census and Statistics Department. In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, POP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Sample size |
Effective response rate |
Maximum sampling error[15 ] |
|
18-19/7/2018 (Naming survey) |
502 |
47.4% |
+/-4% |
|
20-23/7/2018 (Rating survey) |
500 |
50.8% |
+/-2.1 |
[15] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
The research design of our “Best Corporation” rating survey has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. The corporations being rated in our latest survey were those which obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in mid-July 2018. In the survey, respondents could name up to 5 local public transportations which they knew best. The top three corporations mentioned most frequently in the sector were: KMB, MTR and Citybus. These corporations then entered into the second stage rating survey conducted in the same month, respondents were asked to rate each short-listed corporations using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates extremely poor performance, 100 indicates extremely good performance, and 50 means half-half.
Recent ratings of the best public transportation are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
24-25/4/2017 |
19-20/7/2017 |
4/1/2018 |
20-23/7/2018 |
Latest change |
|
|
Sample base |
506 |
503[16] |
500 |
500 |
-- |
|
|
Response rate* |
74.0% |
55.2% |
58.5% |
50.8% |
-- |
|
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error[17] |
Recognition rate |
-- |
|
KMB |
63.6{1}[18] |
63.1{1} |
63.8{1} |
59.7+/-1.7{1} |
95.9% |
-4.2[18] |
|
Citybus |
59.4{2}[18] |
62.2{2}[18] |
60.0{3}[18] |
59.5+/-1.5{2} |
91.1% |
-0.4 |
|
MTR |
59.0{3}[18] |
62.2{3}[18] |
60.1{2}[18] |
56.2+/-2.1{3} |
97.8% |
-3.9[18] |
* “Overall response rate” was used before September 2017, thereafter, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[16] The mobile sample was not included when survey results were released. The figures in the table above have been updated to reflect the results based on the combined landline and mobile sample. However, whether changes have gone beyond sampling errors is still determined based on the figures in the first release.
[17] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.1 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[18] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey showed that KMB was considered as having the best CSR reputation among local public transportation, scored 59.7 marks, while Citybus and MTR scored 59.5 and 56.2 marks respectively.
Online Opinion Analysis
In July 2017, POP started collaborating with uMax Data Technology Limited to conduct “Online Opinion Analysis”. uMax Data would provide technical support concerning social big data to track posts in Facebook pages and various major forums in Hong Kong that mentioned specific political figures or organizations. When public opinion changes very significantly, POP will summarize the popular online posts about the specific political figures or organizations between the two surveys and compile a list of related events. Readers could make their own judgment if the events listed have impact on the related public opinion figures.
Since the latest survey findings reveal that the rating of public transport corporation KMB who ranks first has changed significantly compared to the figure recorded in the last survey, POP conducted “Online Opinion Analysis” to identify the top ten most discussed issues on the internet. The list of most discussed items after eliminating duplications is as follows:
|
KMB bus flipped onto its side at Tai Po Highway causing 19 deaths. |
|
KMB bus drivers who were displeased with the proposed salary package launched a strike. |
|
KMB fired Yip Wai-lam, spokeswoman of the Monthly-Paid Bus Drivers’ Alliance. |
The results show that online public opinion had been discussing the Tai Po Road bus crash and the bus drivers’ labour movement. Whether or not these items could sufficiently explain the change in the figure, readers could form their own judgment.
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam have not changed much since two weeks ago. Her latest popularity rating is 56.2 marks. Her latest approval rate is 47%, disapproval rate 38%, giving a net popularity of positive 8 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE in terms of both support rate and rating.
As for the SAR Government, its popularity has dropped compared to two weeks ago. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 32%, dissatisfaction rate 43%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 11 percentage points. As for people’s trust in the government, the trust rate now stands at 46%, distrust rate 37%, giving a net trust of positive 9 percentage points.
As for the best public transportations, our survey conducted in July shows that the most well-known public transportation was KMB. Results of rating survey also show that KMB has the best CSR reputation in the sector, scoring 59.7 marks, followed by Citybus and MTR, with 59.5 and 56.2 marks respectively.
As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”.
Future Release (Tentative)
Public Sentiment Index
Reference – Technical Notes of “Online Opinion Analysis”
Technically, POP research team firstly determines and inputs related keywords to be searched on the platform provided by uMax Data. POP then selects targeted online platforms to be monitored (currently selected: Facebook and forums), and extract the top five most discussed items on each online platform, thus come up with a list of 10 items in total. By eliminating duplications in the top ten items, POP compiles a table which is included in the press release for readers’ reference.
