HKU POP releases popularity figures of Hong Kong disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison and the PSIBack
Press Release on June 5, 2018
| Detail Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Discipilnary Force) |
| Detail Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the Hong Kong Police Force) |
| Detail Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison) |
| Detailed Findings (Public Sentiment Index Feature Page) |
Special Announcements
1. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has also added mobile numbers to the sampling frame. After three months of testing, in October 2017, POP formalized the use of mixed samples as its standard for regular opinion surveys using a landline and mobile sample ratio of 4 to 1. Starting from April 2018, POP further increased the proportion of mobile sample, which the landline and mobile sample ratio became 2 to 1. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.
2. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of regular rating surveys of current CE Carrie Lam, former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung, along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP conducted a survey on people’s satisfaction with the disciplinary forces in late May 2018 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that the recognition rates of the Fire Services Department, the Police Force and the Immigration Department are all higher than 95% and those of the Customs and Excise Department, the Independent Commission Against Corruption and the Auxiliary Medical Service are higher than 90%, while those of the Government Flying Service, the Correctional Services Department and the Civil Aid Service are higher than or close to 80%. This shows that Hong Kong people are rather familiar with all our disciplinary forces. In terms of relative rankings, the Fire Services Department continues to rank first with a rating of 84.1 marks. The Government Flying Service and the Auxiliary Medical Service rank second and third. The Customs and Excise Department, the Immigration Department and the Civil Aid Service rank fourth to sixth, while the Independent Commission Against Corruption, the Correctional Services Department and the Police Force rank seventh to ninth. Compared with the last survey, the overall ranking of the Civil Aid Service drops two positions to rank sixth, while others have not changed much. In terms of absolute ratings, all nine disciplinary forces get more than 60 marks, six of which are above 70, which is very good. A point to note is that, the rating of the Auxiliary Medical Service has also reached record high since late 2013, while those of the Customs and Excise Department and the Immigration Department have reached record high since mid-2012. The rating of the Police Force is 63.7 marks and remains the lowest among the nine disciplinary forces. Its net satisfaction rate is positive 26 percentage points representing a significant decrease of 11 percentage points from 6 months ago. Meanwhile, the popularity rating of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison stands at 61.0 marks, while its net satisfaction rate stands at positive 41 percentage points, which has not changed much when compared with half a year ago. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points, while that of rating figures is below +/-2.6 marks at 95% confidence level, and the sampling error of net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 56%.
As for the Public Sentiment Index (PSI), the latest PSI stands at 98.6, decreased by 16.1 points since mid-May. This time both component scores of PSI have decreased. Specifically, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance goes down by 10.6 points to 96.7, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment decreases by 18.2 points to 93.5.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,009 successful interviews, not 1,009 x 55.9% response rate.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net values need another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.6, that of percentages not more than +/-4%, and that of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
I. Disciplinary Forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison
Background
Since its establishment in 1991, POP has been conducting different types of opinion studies on social and political issues. Shortly after the handover of Hong Kong in July 1997, POP began our regular surveys on people’s satisfaction with the Hong Kong Police Force and PLA Hong Kong Garrison. In 2012, POP revised the design of this survey series by splitting the survey into two stages. A naming survey of people’s most familiar disciplinary forces in Hong Kong was conducted first, followed by another survey on people’s satisfaction with top 6 most familiar disciplinary forces, as well as the PLA Hong Kong Garrison. In mid-2015, POP expanded the scope of the satisfaction survey to cover all nine disciplinary forces in Hong Kong, plus PLA Hong Kong Garrison, thus doing away with the naming survey while increasing the reference value of the entire survey. In late 2017, the focus of the survey was changed to satisfaction ratings. For the questions that used the 5-point scale, only the two on the satisfaction of the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison were kept for the purpose of long term tracking. All findings of these surveys are published regularly at the HKU POP Site.
Latest Figures
POP today releases the latest popularity figures of Hong Kong disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison. From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity group is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to figures collected in the 2016 By-census regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population and the 2017 educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution obtained from the Census and Statistics Department. The mobile sample has also been rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Effective sample size |
Effective response rate |
Maximum sampling error
|
|
21-25/5/2018 |
1,009 |
55.9% |
+/-3% / +/-2.6 |
[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
Latest satisfaction ratings of Hong Kong disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
24-26/5/16 |
21-24/11/16 |
22-25/5/17 |
14-16/11/17 |
21-25/5/18 |
Latest change |
|
|
Sample base[7] |
504-586 |
551-656 |
560-622 |
560-741 |
508-576 |
-- |
|
|
Response rate* |
69.9% |
70.8% |
69.7% |
62.8% |
55.9% |
-- |
|
|
Finding / Recognition rate |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error [8] |
Recog % |
-- |
|
Fire Services Department |
78.5{1} |
83.9{1}[9] |
84.2{1} |
84.1{1} |
84.1+/-1.1{1} |
98.8% |
-- |
|
Government Flying Service |
76.1{2} |
77.1{2} |
79.5{2}[9] |
79.9{2} |
79.9+/-1.3{2} |
87.8% |
-- |
|
Auxiliary Medical Service |
74.9{3} |
76.6{3}[9] |
78.9{3}[9] |
79.5{3} |
79.8+/-1.3{3} |
92.6% |
+0.3 |
|
Customs and Excise Department |
70.3{5}[9] |
71.2{5} |
73.5{4}[9] |
74.0{5} |
75.6+/-1.4{4} |
94.4% |
+1.6[9] |
|
Immigration Department |
64.8{8}[9] |
70.4{6}[9] |
71.1{6} |
73.5{6}[9] |
73.7+/-1.5{5} |
96.0% |
+0.2 |
|
Civil Aid Service |
70.6{4} |
72.6{4}[9] |
73.3{5} |
74.3{4} |
72.3+/-1.8{6} |
79.9% |
-2.0[9] |
|
Independent Commission Against Corruption |
67.3{7}[9] |
63.2{9}[9] |
69.2{8}[9] |
71.9{7}[9] |
68.9+/-1.8{7} |
94.0% |
-3.0[9] |
|
Correctional Services Department |
68.7{6} |
70.0{7} |
69.8{7} |
68.7{8} |
68.8+/-1.6{8} |
85.6% |
+0.1 |
|
Police Force |
60.3{9} |
64.6{8}[9] |
64.1{9} |
66.9{9}[9] |
63.7+/-2.1{9} |
98.0% |
-3.2[9] |
|
PLA Hong Kong Garrison |
60.8 |
62.0 |
63.3 |
64.1 |
61.0+/-2.6 |
73.6% |
-3.1[9] |
* “Overall response rate” was used before September 2017, thereafter, “effective response rate” was used.
[7] These questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level”, meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of ratings not more than +/-2.6 marks at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicate the rankings.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
The latest survey conducted in late May shows that the 1st to 3rd places regarding people’s satisfaction with disciplinary forces remain to be the Fire Services Department, the Government Flying Service and the Auxiliary Medical Service with satisfaction ratings of 84.1, 79.9 and 79.8 respectively. Next, the 4th to 6th ranks go to the Customs and Excise Department, the Immigration Department and the Civil Aid Service, with satisfaction ratings at 75.6, 73.7 and 72.3 marks respectively. Finally, the 7th to 9th places go to the Independent Commission Against Corruption, the Correctional Services Department and the Hong Kong Police Force. Their satisfaction ratings are 68.9, 68.8 and 63.7 respectively. Besides, people’s latest satisfaction rating toward the PLA Hong Kong Garrison is 61.0 marks.
Latest satisfaction rates of the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison using the 5-point scale are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
24-26/5/16 |
21-24/11/16 |
22-25/5/17 |
14-16/11/17 |
21-25/5/18 |
Latest changes |
|
Sample base[10] |
504-586 |
590-656 |
562-595 |
590-741 |
542-566 |
-- |
|
Response rate* |
69.9% |
70.8% |
69.7% |
62.8% |
55.9% |
-- |
|
Finding / Error |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error[11] |
-- |
|
Satisfaction rate of the
|
54% |
58% |
58% |
59% |
54+/-4% |
-5%[13] |
|
Dissatisfaction rate of the
|
21% |
20% |
23% |
22% |
28+/-4% |
+6%[13] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
33% |
38% |
35% |
37% |
26+/-7% |
-11%[13] |
|
Mean value[12] |
3.4 (Base=495) |
3.5 (Base=569) |
3.4 (Base=572) |
3.5 (Base=736) |
3.3+/-0.1 (Base=528) |
-0.2[13] |
|
Satisfaction rate of the
|
43%[13] |
45% |
44% |
52%[13] |
50+/-4% |
-2% |
|
Dissatisfaction rate of the
|
9% |
11% |
11% |
8%[13] |
10+/-2% |
+2% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
34% |
34% |
33% |
44%[13] |
41+/-6% |
-3% |
|
Mean value[12] |
3.6 (Base=397) |
3.6 (Base=491) |
3.6 (Base=405) |
3.7 (Base=466) |
3.6+/-0.1 (Base=426) |
-0.1 |
* “Overall response rate” was used before September 2017, thereafter, “effective response rate” was used.
[10] These questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “ sampling error of ratings not more than +/-0.1 marks, that of percentages not more than +/-4%, and that of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Survey results show that the satisfaction rate of the Police Force is 54%, dissatisfaction rate 28%, giving a net satisfaction rate of positive 26 percentage points and a mean score of 3.3, meaning between “half-half” and “quite satisfied” in general. Regarding the PLA Hong Kong Garrison, the satisfaction rate is 50%, dissatisfaction rate 10%, giving a net satisfaction of positive 41 percentage points, and a mean score of 3.6, meaning between “half-half” and “quite satisfied” in general.
II. Public Sentiment Index
Background
The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal, the grading reference of the scores are shown below. For methodological detailed please refer to the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk.
POP started to pilot study the “Public Sentiment Index” in year 2010 in collaboration with NowTV. The first survey was conducted in June 2010, followed by a series of monthly tracking surveys in 2011. There were altogether 13 surveys, covered by 11 releases from March 2011 to January 2012. All results have been uploaded to the POP Site.
At the end of June 2012, before the 15th anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong, POP officially released a “PSI analysis” with figures dating back to 1992, spanning over 20 years. Moreover, the frequency of the study was set at twice a month. In October 2012, echoing the start of a new Legislative Council, POP decided to set the cut-off date of all PSI analyses at the Sunday proceeding every 15th and last day of month, whereas the release date was set at the first Thursday following the cut-off date. In July 2017, after the 20th anniversary of the handover, POP further streamlined the release date and mode of PSI analyses to become POP Site release only for the first analysis of each month, and POP Site plus press release for the second analysis of each month. At the same time, the second release was shifted to the first Tuesday of the following month, except under special circumstances.
Cut-off date of the PSI figures released by POP today is May 27, 2018, while that of the next round of release will be June 10, 2018. The tentative release date for the next release will be June 14, 2018 (Thursday).
Latest Figures of PSI
The PSI released by POP today shows that as of May 27, 2018, the latest Public Sentiment Index (PSI) is 98.6, down 16.1 from early May. As for the Government Appraisal (GA) and Society Appraisal (SA), the scores are 96.7 and 93.5, down 10.6 and 18.2 respectively. The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:
|
|
|||
|
Latest figure |
Public Sentiment Index
|
Government Appraisal
|
Society Appraisal
|
Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:
|
Release date |
15/3/18 |
3/4/18 |
12/4/18 |
2/5/18 |
17/5/18 |
5/6/18 |
Latest change[15] |
|
Cut-off date |
11/3/18 |
25/3/18 |
8/4/18 |
29/4/18 |
13/5/18 |
27/5/18 |
-- |
|
Public Sentiment Index (PSI) |
107.0 |
106.2 |
99.3 |
103.6 |
114.7 |
98.6 |
-16.1 |
|
Government Appraisal (GA) |
103.1 |
105.9 |
99.3 |
102.0 |
107.4 |
96.7 |
-10.6 |
|
Rating of CE |
56.3 |
56.8 |
55.6 |
53.9 |
57.8 |
52.7 |
-5.1 |
|
Net approval rate of CE |
6% |
3% |
-2% |
4% |
13% |
-5% |
-18% |
|
Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
-0.2 |
|
Mean value of people’s trust in SARG |
2.9 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
-0.2 |
|
Society Appraisal (SA) |
102.4 |
98.1 |
92.3 |
97.4 |
111.8 |
93.5 |
-18.2 |
|
People’s satisfaction with political condition |
2.2 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
-0.2 |
|
Weighting index of political condition |
0.31[14] |
0.31[14] |
0.31[14] |
0.31[14] |
0.31[14] |
0.31[14] |
-- |
|
People’s satisfaction with economic condition |
3.1 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
-0.3 |
|
Weighting index of economic condition |
0.34[14] |
0.34[14] |
0.34[14] |
0.34[14] |
0.34[14] |
0.34[14] |
-- |
|
People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition |
2.6 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
-0.3 |
|
Weighting index of livelihood condition |
0.36[14] |
0.36[14] |
0.36[14] |
0.36[14] |
0.36[14] |
0.36[14] |
-- |
[14] POP will adopt the latest published weighting index figures when there are no respective updates.
[15] Latest changes are based on the differences between the exact values of the two figures, but not the rounded figures shown in the table.
As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:
|
Score value |
Percentile |
Score value |
Percentile |
|
140-200 |
Highest 1% |
0-60 |
Lowest 1% |
|
125 |
Highest 5% |
75 |
Lowest 5% |
|
120 |
Highest 10% |
80 |
Lowest 10% |
|
110 |
Highest 25% |
90 |
Lowest 25% |
|
100 being normal level, meaning half above half below |
|||
The latest PSI of 98.6 can be considered as among the worst 46% across the past 20 years or so, while the GA and SA scores of 96.7 and 93.5 can be considered as among the worst 41% and 33% respectively.
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.
Our latest survey shows that the recognition rates of the Fire Services Department, the Police Force and the Immigration Department are all higher than 95% and those of the Customs and Excise Department, the Independent Commission Against Corruption and the Auxiliary Medical Service are higher than 90%, while those of the Government Flying Service, the Correctional Services Department and the Civil Aid Service are higher than or close to 80%. This shows that Hong Kong people are rather familiar with all our disciplinary forces. In terms of relative rankings, the Fire Services Department continues to rank first with a rating of 84.1 marks. The Government Flying Service and the Auxiliary Medical Service rank second and third. The Customs and Excise Department, the Immigration Department and the Civil Aid Service rank fourth to sixth, while the Independent Commission Against Corruption, the Correctional Services Department and the Police Force rank seventh to ninth. Compared with the last survey, the overall ranking of the Civil Aid Service drops two positions to rank sixth, while others have not changed much. In terms of absolute ratings, all nine disciplinary forces get more than 60 marks, six of which are above 70, which is very good. A point to note is that, the rating of the Auxiliary Medical Service has also reached record high since late 2013, while those of the Customs and Excise Department and the Immigration Department have reached record high since mid-2012. The rating of the Police Force is 63.7 marks and remains the lowest among the nine disciplinary forces. Its net satisfaction rate is positive 26 percentage points representing a significant decrease of 11 percentage points from 6 months ago. Meanwhile, the popularity rating of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison stands at 61.0 marks, while its net satisfaction rate stands at positive 41 percentage points, which has not changed much when compared with half a year ago.
As for the Public Sentiment Index (PSI), the latest PSI stands at 98.6, decreased by 16.1 points since mid-May. This time both component scores of PSI have decreased. Specifically, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance goes down by 10.6 points to 96.7, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment decreases by 18.2 points to 93.5. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”.
Future Release (Tentative)
Reference Materials on Survey on PSI Please refer to the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk.
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