HKU POP releases findings of the post-election survey on the District Council ElectionBack

Press Release on December 18, 2003

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong has already conducted a series of pre-election surveys and exit polls, and released the findings some time ago. As a final conclusion of the District Council Election survey series, the research team has conducted a post-election survey few weeks after the election day, for gauging people's opinions on the electoral arrangement, election results, allocation of appointed seats, as well as constitutional reforms. Detailed figures have been posted at the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk). Major findings are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	10-14/12	10-14/12
Total sample base (Hong Kong citizens of age 18 or above）	1,059	--
Sub-sample base (registered voters)	--	738
Overall response rate	63.5%	--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*	+/-3%	+/-4%

Overall electoral arrangement: Satisfaction rate**	--	74%
Overall electoral arrangement: Dissatisfaction rate**	--	6%
Proportion of respondents who perceived the DC election to be corruption-free	71%	76%
Proportion of respondents who did not perceive the DC election to be corruption-free	6%	6%
Proportion of respondents who knew which candidate in their constituency was elected	67%	78%
Proportion of respondents who did not know which candidate in their constituency was elected	33%	22%
Election results of respondents' constituency: Satisfaction rate**	53%	61%
Election results of respondents' constituency: Dissatisfaction rate **	9%	11%
Perceived reason for high turnout rate: Effect of July 1 Demonstration	28%	31%
Perceived reason for high turnout rate: People's dissatisfaction with the government	23%	25%
Proportion of respondents who did not know there were appointed seats in this years' DC election	56%	50%
Proportion of respondents who knew there were appointed seats in this years' DC election	44%	50%
Opposition rate of appointed seats	43%	46%
Support rate of appointed seats	29%	30%
Support rate of a general election of the Chief Executive in 2007**	73%	76%
Opposition rate of a general election of the Chief Executive in 2007**	8%	8%
Proportion of respondents who did not expect a general election of the Chief Executive in 2007 to materialize	50%	52%
Proportion of respondents who expected a general election of the Chief Executive in 2007 to materialize	24%	23%
Support rate of a general election of all Legislative Councillors in 2008**	76%	78%
Opposition rate of a general election of all Legislative Councillors in 2008**	7%	7%
Proportion of respondents who expected a general election of all Legislative Councillors in 2008 to materialize	36%	36%
Proportion of respondents who did not expect a general election of all Legislative Councillors in 2008 to materialize	34%	35%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

Between December 10 and 14, 2003, POP conducted a random telephone survey which successfully interviewed 1,059 Cantonese speakers in Hong Kong of age 18 or above, of which 738 were registered voters. The data was then adjusted according to the age and gender distributions of the Hong Kong population as reported in the 2001 Population Census.

Results showed that, 74% of registered voters were satisfied with the overall arrangement on the election day. Meanwhile, 71% of the respondents considered this year's District Council Election to be corruption-free. With respect to the election results, 67% of the respondents knew which candidate in their constituency was elected as one of the new District Council members, and 53% were satisfied with such results. Besides, concerning the turnout rate of the recent District Council Election, which was as high as 44%, 28% of the respondents attributed this to the effect of July 1 Demonstration, whilst 23% perceived it as a reflection of people's dissatisfaction with the government.

Findings also revealed that 44% of the respondents knew that there were appointed seats in the newly elected District Council, and 43% opposed such an appointment system.

As for constitutional reforms, 73% agreed to have a general election of the Chief Executive in 2007. Yet, only around one-quarter of the respondents believed that this demand would materialize. On the other hand, 76% agreed to have a general election of all Legislative Councillors in 2008, whereas only 36% thought this demand would materialize.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, made the following analysis: "According to our post-election survey, the general public, especially the electorate, is generally satisfied with the arrangement and results of the DC election. More people opposed than supported the existence of appointed seats, the figures had not changed much one month before and after the election. Regarding universal suffrage of the Chief Executive in 2007, and all LegCo seats in 2008, the ideas received almost landslide support, but very few people expected them to materialize."

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be December 23, 2003, Tuesday, at 2pm, the latest results on people's expectation of the seventh policy address of CE Tung Chee-hwa, as well as people's ethnic identity will be released.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys mentioned, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong.