HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack
Press Release on January 30, 2018
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) | (People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government)
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with Current Political, Economic and livelihood conditions) |
Special Announcements
1. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has also added mobile numbers to the sampling frame. After three months of testing, in October 2017, POP formalized the use of mixed samples as its standard for regular opinion surveys. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples, while "effective response rate" is continued to be used to describe the survey's contact information. As for the weighting method, a two-step protocol is used. First, both the landline and mobile samples have been rim-weighted according to figures collected in the 2016 By-census regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population and the 2017 educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution obtained from the Census and Statistics Department. After that, the mobile sample was rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample, and then mixed together to produce the final results. This weighting method has proved to be feasible after three months of testing, but POP will continue to review and enhance it, and keep the public informed.
2. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP today released via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data and related respondents' demographics of the latest rating survey of CE Carrie Lam, together with those of regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung released earlier, for public examination. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,035 Hong Kong people between 15 and 18 January, 2018 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has significantly decreased by 4.3 marks to 54.4 marks compared to two weeks ago. Her latest approval rate is 45%, disapproval rate 41%, giving a net popularity of positive 4 percentage points, which has plunged 11 percentage points from early January. Both her popularity rating and net approval rate are at record low since she became CE. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has slightly dropped compared to two weeks ago. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 36%, dissatisfaction rate 42%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 6 percentage points. As for people's trust in the government, the trust rate now stands at 43%, distrust rate 40%, giving a net trust of positive 3 percentage points. As for the society's appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are positive 14, negative 20 and negative 53 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE in terms of both support rate and rating. The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 64%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,035 successful interviews, not 1,035 x 63.6% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level".
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam and the HKSAR Government. From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity group is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to figures collected in the 2016 By-census regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population and the 2017 educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution obtained from the Census and Statistics Department. The mobile sample has also been rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Effective sample size |
Effective response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
|
15-18/1/2018 |
1,035 |
63.6% |
+/-3% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam and the SAR Government are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
6-9/11/17 |
14-16/11/17 |
4-6/12/17 |
18-19/12/17 |
3-4/1/18 |
15-18/1/18 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base |
1,002 |
1,011 |
1,034 |
1,013 |
1,000 |
1,035 |
-- |
|
Effective response rate |
57.6% |
62.8% |
61.0% |
64.9% |
58.3% |
63.6% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error[7] |
-- |
|
Rating of CE Carrie Lam |
58.9[9] |
62.9[9] |
55.7[9] |
58.3[9] |
58.7 |
54.4+/-1.7 |
-4.3[9] |
|
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
50% |
54%[9] |
49%[9] |
49% |
51% |
45+/-3% |
-6%[9] |
|
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
36% |
31%[9] |
37%[9] |
36% |
36% |
41+/-3% |
+5%[9] |
|
Net approval rate |
15% |
23%[9] |
12%[9] |
12% |
15% |
4+/-6% |
-11%[9] |
|
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[8] |
40%[9] |
47%[9] |
39%[9] |
38% |
38% |
36+/-4% |
-2% |
|
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[8] |
34%[9] |
30%[9] |
37%[9] |
35% |
39% |
42+/-4% |
+3% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
5%[9] |
17%[9] |
2%[9] |
3% |
-1% |
-6+/-7% |
-5% |
|
Mean value[8] |
3.0 (Base=712) |
3.2[9] (Base=755) |
2.9[9] (Base=836) |
3.0 (Base=567) |
2.9 (Base=559) |
2.7+/-0.1 (Base=604) |
-0.2 [9] |
|
Trust in HKSAR Government[8] |
47%[9] |
55%[9] |
48%[9] |
48% |
45% |
43+/-4% |
-2% |
|
Distrust in HKSAR Government[8] |
35%[9] |
26%[9] |
33%[9] |
35% |
36% |
40+/-4% |
+4% |
|
Net trust |
12%[9] |
29%[9] |
15%[9] |
14% |
9% |
3+/-7% |
-6% |
|
Mean value[8] |
3.1 (Base=713) |
3.3[9] (Base=760) |
3.1[9] (Base=834) |
3.1 (Base=567) |
3.1 (Base=555) |
2.9+/-0.1 (Base=605) |
-0.2 [9] |
|
Current economic condition:
|
37%[9] |
43%[9] |
35%[9] |
44%[9] |
46% |
45+/-3% |
-1% |
|
Current economic condition:
|
38%[9] |
30%[9] |
41%[9] |
29%[9] |
31% |
31+/-3% |
-- |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-<1%[9] |
13%[9] |
-7%[9] |
15%[9] |
15% |
14+/-5% |
-1% |
|
Mean value[8] |
2.9[9] (Base=984) |
3.1[9] (Base=987) |
2.8[9] (Base=1,015) |
3.1[9] (Base=990) |
3.1 (Base=989) |
3.1+/-0.1 (Base=1,013 |
-- |
|
Current livelihood condition:
|
28% |
37%[9] |
25%[9] |
32%[9] |
33% |
31+/-3% |
-2% |
|
Current livelihood condition:
|
51%[9] |
37%[9] |
53%[9] |
47%[9] |
47% |
50+/-3% |
+3% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-23%[9] |
1%[9] |
-28%[9] |
-15%[9] |
-14% |
-20+/-5% |
-6%[9] |
|
Mean value[8] |
2.6 (Base=995) |
3.0[9] (Base=997) |
2.5[9] (Base=1,025) |
2.7[9] (Base=1,007) |
2.7 (Base=992) |
2.6+/-0.1 (Base=1,026) |
-0.1 |
|
Current political condition:
|
21% |
21% |
19% |
16%[9] |
18% |
15+/-2% |
-3%[9] |
|
Current political condition:
|
58% |
62%[9] |
58%[9] |
62%[9] |
64% |
68+/-3% |
+4% [9] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-37% |
-41% |
-40% |
-46%[9] |
-46% |
-53+/-5% |
-7% [9] |
|
Mean value[8] |
2.3 (Base=958) |
2.3 (Base=967) |
2.3 (Base=983) |
2.1[9] (Base=943) |
2.2 (Base=962) |
2.1+/-0.1 (Base=991) |
-0.1 |
[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 620.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
The latest survey showed that, CE Carrie Lam scored 54.4 marks, and 45% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is positive 4 percentage points. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 36% were satisfied, whereas 42% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 6 percentage points. The mean score is 2.7, which is close to "half-half". Meanwhile, 43% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, the net trust value is positive 3 percentage points, while the mean score is 2.9, which is close to "half-half". As for people's satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates were 45%, 31% and 15% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were positive 14, negative 20 and negative 53 percentage points. The mean scores of the economic, livelihood and political conditions were 3.1, 2.6 and 2.1, meaning between "half-half" and "quite dissatisfied" in general.
Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age and education attainment. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rating and support rate of Carrie Lam as Chief Executive by respondents' age and education attainment, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:
|
Date of survey: 15-18/1/2018 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Rating of CE Carrie Lam[10] |
40.0+/-3.
5
|
53.1+/-2.9
|
60.5+/-2.4
|
54.4+/-1.7
|
|
|
Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[10] |
Support |
22+/-6%
|
43+/-5%
|
55+/-4%
|
45+/-3%
|
|
Oppose |
71+/-7%
|
42+/-5%
|
30+/-4%
|
41+/-3%
|
|
|
Don't know / Hard to say |
7+/-4%
|
15+/-4%
|
15+/-3%
|
14+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
|
Date of survey: 15-18/1/2018 |
Primary or below |
Secondary |
Tertiary or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Rating of CE Carrie Lam[11] |
66.1+/-3.7
|
55.3+/-2.4
|
46.6+/-2.8
|
54.4+/-1.7
|
|
|
Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[11] |
Support |
64+/-7%
|
47+/-5%
|
30+/-5%
|
45+/-3%
|
|
Oppose |
21+/-6%
|
40+/-4%
|
55+/-5%
|
41+/-3%
|
|
|
Don't know / Hard to say |
14+/-5%
|
13+/-3%
|
15+/-4%
|
14+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 3 to 4 January, 2018 while this survey was conducted from 15 to 18 January, 2018. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
17/1/18 |
Joshua Wong and Raphael Wong are jailed by the High Court over the Mongkok protest site clearance case. |
|
11/1/18 |
Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor attends the Legislative Council question-and-answer session. |
|
6/1/18 |
Media reports on the suspected unauthorised building works found in Teresa Cheng's property. |
|
5/1/18 |
Teresa Cheng takes over as the Secretary for Justice. |
|
3/1/18 |
Retired superintendent Franklin Chu King-wai is jailed for three months and bailed of $50,000 cash pending his appeal. |
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.
Our latest survey conducted in mid-January shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has significantly decreased by 4.3 marks to 54.4 marks compared to two weeks ago. Her latest approval rate is 45%, disapproval rate 41%, giving a net popularity of positive 4 percentage points, which has plunged 11 percentage points from early January. Both her popularity rating and net approval rate are at record low since she became CE.
As for the SAR Government, its popularity has slightly dropped compared to two weeks ago. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 36%, dissatisfaction rate 42%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 6 percentage points. As for people's trust in the government, the trust rate now stands at 43%, distrust rate 40%, giving a net trust of positive 3 percentage points. As for the society's appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are positive 14, negative 20 and negative 53 percentage points.
Indepth analysis shows that the younger and more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE in terms of both support rate and rating. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily".
Future Release (Tentative)
