HKU POP SITE releases the latest figures on the popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability systemBack

Press Release on December 9, 2003

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk), the latest figures on the popularity of CE Tung Chee-hwa and Principal Officials under the accountability system. The latter set of figures is released for the last time this year. Recent figures on the popularity of Tung are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	3-6/11	10-12/11	15-18/11	1-7/12	Latest change
Sample base	1,001	1,062	1,030	1,008	---
Overall response rate	60.7%	63.4%	64.1%	62.9%	---
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% conf. level)*	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.4	+/- 1.4	---
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)*	+/- 3%	--	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	---

Support rating of CH Tung	44.2	42.8	43.6	42.6	-1.0
Vote of confidence in CH Tung	19%	--	17%	15%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in CH Tung	65%	--	65%	68%	+3%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Results showed that the latest rating of CE Tung Chee-hwa registered in early December was 42.6 marks, representing a drop of 1.0 mark from that of mid-November. Meanwhile, 68% of the respondents did not support Tung as the Chief Executive, whereas 15% did. Recent popularity ratings of Principal Officials under the accountability system are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	1-2/10	3-6/11	1-7/12	Latest change
Sample base	1,052	1,001	1,008	---
Overall response rate	65.7%	60.7%	62.9%	---
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% conf. level)*	+/-1.6	+/-1.6	+/- 1.6	---

CS Donald Tsang	63.2	64.5	63.2	-1.3
FS Henry Tang	58.9	56.3	54.7	-1.6
SJ Elsie Leung	47.4	47.6	45.2	-2.4
Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao	59.4	61.1	59.1	-2.0
Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	57.2	58.5	58.1	-0.4
Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip	55.2	55.9	55.0	-0.9
Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li	52.1	52.5	49.2	-3.3
Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong	48.8	49.5	47.9	-1.6
Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen	46.5	48.3	47.4	-0.9
Secretary for Health, Welfare and FoodYeoh Eng-kiong	45.6	45.8	45.1	-0.7
Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho	50.8	51.7	45.1	-6.6
Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam	43.0	44.7	43.0	-1.7
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma	43.3	44.6	42.7	-1.9
Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang	**	**	**	--

With respect to the three Secretaries, the ratings of CS Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Elsie Leung Oi-sie were 63.2, 54.7 and 45.2 marks in respective orders.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, because it is POP's long established practice not to treat ratings of persons with less than 50% benchmark recognition rate as representative, the rating of Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah cannot be meaningfully discussed in this survey, and has been listed separately in our summary tables. Results revealed that the most popular official remained to be Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung, who scored 59.1 marks. Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong and Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan ranked 2nd and 3rd, with popularity ratings of 58.1 and 55.0 marks respectively. Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung, Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping and Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung ranked from 4th to 6th, attaining 49.2, 47.9 and 47.4 marks correspondingly. Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong and Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping followed behind, both scoring 45.1 marks. The 9th and 10th places fell to Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, with popularity ratings of 43.0 and 42.7 marks respectively.

As for the popularity indicators based on the hypothetical vote share on the reappointment or dismissal of Principal Officials, support rates since March are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	12-13/3	3-6/6	1-3/9	1-7/12	Latest change
Sample base	1,040	1,027	1,059	1,008	---
Overall response rate	72.3%	66.6%	69.3%	62.9%	---
Sampling error of percentages(at 95% conf. level)*	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	+/- 3%	---

CS Donald Tsang	--	71%[5%]	71%[3%]	71%[6%]	--[+3%]
FS Henry Tang	See end of table		50%[3%]	47%[11%]	-3%[+8%]
SJ Elsie Leung	--	30%[27%]	29%[35%]	24%[40%]	-5%[+5%]
Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao	--	59%[3%]	70%[5%]	67%[6%]	-3%[+1%]
Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	Survey not started yet		52%[2%]	62%[3%]	+10%[+1%]
Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip	--	46%[7%]	56%[8%]	55%[7%]	-1%[-1%]
Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li	--	52%[11%]	45%[19%]	37%[28%]	-8%[+9%]
Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen	--	37%[15%]	35%[23%]	32%[30%]	-3%[+7%]
Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong	--	27%[17%]	35%[17%]	30%[22%]	-5%[+5%]
Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food Yeoh Eng-kiong	--	29%[38%]	29%[42%]	27%[40%]	-2%[-2%]
Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho	--	40%[13%]	39%[16%]	26%[34%]	-13%[+18%]
Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang	Survey not started yet		19%[3%]	24%[6%]	+5%[+3%]
Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam	--	18%[23%]	19%[29%]	21%[30%]	+2%[+1%]
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma	--	16%[39%]	21%[40%]	19%[41%]	-2%[+1%]
Former FS Antony Leung	21%[35%]	19%[46%]	--	--	--
Former Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology Henry Tang	--	47%[9%]	--	--	--
Former Secretary for Security Regina Ip	--	48%[25%]	--	--	--

Results showed that, the proportions of respondents who would vote for the reappointment of Donald Tsang, Henry Tang and Elsie Leung were 71%, 47% and 24% respectively. As for the Directors of Bureaux, only Sarah Liao, Ambrose Lee and Stephen Ip scored a reappointment rate of over 50%, at 67%, 62% and 55% correspondingly.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, made the following analysis: "The popularity of CH Tung and all Principal Officials have both gone down after the District Council Election, probably because the election has triggered people's discontent. Among the Principal Officials, Patrick Ho's rating plunged 6.6 marks, while that of Arthur Li dropped 3.3 marks, apparently due to the 'Michael Wong Incident' and university budget-cut respectively."

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday at 2 pm via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the forthcoming week. We will review and adjust this operation regularly. According to this schedule, the date and time of our next release will be December 16, 2003, Tuesday, at 2 pm, the latest findings on people's satisfaction with the current social conditions and their opinions towards Taiwan issues will be released.

Shall anyone have any question regarding the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site, members of the POP Team will be happy to answer them, but we will not further comment on the findings. Shall any person or journalist have any other questions, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. The Director of Public Opinion Programme would answer them as soon as possible. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.