HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the Government, and the PSIBack
Press Release on January 2, 2018
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government) |
| Detailed Findings (Public Sentiment Index Feature Page) |
Special Announcements
1. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has also added mobile numbers to the sampling frame. After three months of testing, in October 2017, POP formalized the use of mixed samples as its standard for regular opinion surveys. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples, while “effective response rate” is continued to be used to describe the survey’s contact information. As for the weighting method, a two-step protocol is used. First, both the landline and mobile samples have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end, and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution as well as economic activity status distribution collected in the 2011 Census. After that, the mobile sample was rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample, and then mixed together to produce the final results. This weighting method has proved to be feasible after three months of testing, but POP will continue to review and enhance it, and keep the public informed.
2. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP today released via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data and related respondents’ demographics of the latest rating survey of CE Carrie Lam, together with those of regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung released earlier, for public examination. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
3. Since the figures released by POP today come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by POP in 2017, they are good for year-end stories. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over the past many years can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running year-end reviews.
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,013 Hong Kong people between 18 and 19 December 2017 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has rebounded by 2.6 marks from its record low registered two weeks ago to 58.3. Her latest approval rate is 49%, disapproval rate 36%, giving a net popularity of positive 12 percentage points.. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has not changed much over the past two weeks. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 38%, dissatisfaction rate 35%, giving a net satisfaction rate of positive 3 percentage points. As for people’s trust in the government, the trust rate now stands at 48%, distrust rate 35%, giving a net trust of positive 14 percentage points. As for the society’s appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are positive 15, negative 15 and negative 46 percentage points. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, handling of its relation with the Central Government, maintaining economic prosperity and improving people’s livelihood registered positive values, at positive 26, positive 18 and positive 1 percentage point respectively. The other two items registered negative values, protecting human rights and freedom at negative 8 percentage points and developing democracy at negative 18 percentage points. Compared to six months ago, the net satisfaction rates of four among the five indicators have increased significantly. Among them, the net satisfaction rates of maintaining economic prosperity and improving people’s livelihood are at record high since 2008, while those of handling its relation with the Central Government and developing democracy are at record high since 2011. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%.
As for the Public Sentiment Index (PSI), the latest PSI stands at 111.3, up 6.1 points since mid-December. This time both component scores of PSI increase. Specifically, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance goes up by 1.8 points to 109.0, and the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment increases by 9.2 points to 104.1.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,013 successful interviews, not 1,013 x 64.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
I. Popularity of CE and the Government
Latest Figures
POP today releases via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam and the HKSAR Government. From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity status is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end, the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and the economic activity status distribution collected in the 2011 Census. The mobile sample has also been rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Effective sample size |
Effective response rate |
Maximum sampling error
|
|
18-19/12/2017 |
1,013 |
64.9% |
+/-3% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam and the HKSAR Government, as well as people’s appraisal of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
11/10/17 [7] |
16-19/10/17 |
6-9/11/17 |
14-16/11/17 |
4-6/12/17 |
18-19/12/17 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base |
673 |
1,009 |
1,002 |
1,011 |
1,034 |
1,013 |
-- |
|
Response rate |
63.5% |
64.5% |
57.6% |
62.8% |
61.0% |
64.9% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error[8] |
-- |
|
Rating of CE Carrie Lam |
61.1 |
62.0 |
58.9[10] |
62.9[10] |
55.7[10] |
58.3+/-1.7 |
+2.6[10] |
|
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
53% |
53% |
50% |
54%[10] |
49%[10] |
49+/-3% |
-- |
|
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
29%[10] |
33%[10] |
36% |
31%[10] |
37%[10] |
36+/-3% |
-1% |
|
Net approval rate |
23%[10] |
20% |
15% |
23%[10] |
12%[10] |
12+/-6% |
-- |
|
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[9] |
-- |
45%[10] |
40%[10] |
47%[10] |
39%[10] |
38+/-4% |
-1% |
|
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[9] |
-- |
29%[10] |
34%[10] |
30%[10] |
37%[10] |
35+/-4% |
-2% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-- |
16%[10] |
5%[10] |
17%[10] |
2%[10] |
3+/-7% |
+1% |
|
Mean value[9] |
-- |
3.1[10] (Base=676) |
3.0 (Base=712) |
3.2[10] (Base=755) |
2.9[10] (Base=836) |
3.0+/-0.1 (Base=567) |
+0.1 |
|
Trust in HKSAR Government[9] |
-- |
52% |
47%[10] |
55%[10] |
48%[10] |
48+/-4% |
-- |
|
Distrust in HKSAR Government[9] |
-- |
29%[10] |
35%[10] |
26%[10] |
33%[10] |
35+/-4% |
+2% |
|
Net trust |
-- |
23% |
12%[10] |
29%[10] |
15%[10] |
14+/-7% |
-1% |
|
Mean value[9] |
-- |
3.2 (Base=678) |
3.1 (Base=713) |
3.3[10] (Base=760) |
3.1[10] (Base=834) |
3.1+/-0.1 (Base=567) |
-- |
|
Current economic condition:
|
-- |
45%[10] |
37%[10] |
43%[10] |
35%[10] |
44+/-3% |
+9%[10] |
|
Current economic condition:
|
-- |
34% |
38%[10] |
30%[10] |
41%[10] |
29+/-3% |
-12%[10] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-- |
11%[10] |
-<1%[10] |
13%[10] |
-7%[10] |
15+/-5% |
+22%[10] |
|
Mean value[9] |
-- |
3.1 (Base=982) |
2.9[10] (Base=984) |
3.1[10] (Base=987) |
2.8[10] (Base=1,015) |
3.1+/-0.1 (Base=990) |
+0.3[10] |
|
Current livelihood condition:
|
-- |
31% |
28% |
37%[10] |
25%[10] |
32+/-3% |
+7%[10] |
|
Current livelihood condition:
|
-- |
46%[10] |
51%[10] |
37%[10] |
53%[10] |
47+/-3% |
-6%[10] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-- |
-15%[10] |
-23%[10] |
1%[10] |
-28%[10] |
-15+/-5% |
+13%[10] |
|
Mean value[9] |
-- |
2.7 (Base=985) |
2.6 (Base=995) |
3.0[10] (Base=997) |
2.5[10] (Base=1,025) |
2.7+/-0.1 (Base=1,007) |
+0.2[10] |
|
Current political condition:
|
-- |
20% |
21% |
21% |
19% |
16+/-2% |
-3%[10] |
|
Current political condition:
|
-- |
59% |
58% |
62%[10] |
58%[10] |
62+/-3% |
+4%[10] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-- |
-39% |
-37% |
-41% |
-40% |
-46+/-5% |
-6%[10] |
|
Mean value[9] |
-- |
2.3 (Base=954) |
2.3 (Base=958) |
2.3 (Base=967) |
2.3 (Base=983) |
2.1+/-0.1 (Base=943) |
-0.2[10] |
[7] This survey was the instant survey after the Policy Address and only asked rating of CE as well as her vote of confidence. Its sample size was 673.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.7, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 585.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
The latest survey showed that CE Carrie Lam scored 58.3 marks, and 49% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is positive 12 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 38% were satisfied, whereas 35% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at positive 3 percentage points. The mean score is 3.0, which is close to “half-half”. Meanwhile, 48% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, the net trust value is positive 14 percentage points, while the mean score is 3.1, which is close to “half-half”. As for people’s satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates were 44%, 32% and 16% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were positive 15, negative 15 and negative 46 percentage points. The mean scores of the economic, livelihood and political conditions were 3.1, 2.7 and 2.1, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general.
Recent figures on people’s appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows, in descending order of net satisfaction rates:
|
Date of survey |
19-22/9/16 |
19-22/12/16 |
16-20/3/17 |
19-22/6/17 |
18-19/12/17 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base[11] |
576-612 |
541-631 |
571-623 |
542-634 |
569-652 |
-- |
|
Response rate* |
72.4% |
70.9% |
72.2% |
71.2% |
64.9% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error[12] |
-- |
|
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate [13] |
31% |
36%[14] |
43%[14] |
37%[14] |
52+/-4% |
+15%[14] |
|
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate[13] |
44% |
39%[14] |
39% |
36% |
26+/-4% |
-10%[14] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-13% |
-3%[14] |
4% |
1% |
26+/-7% |
+25%[14] |
|
Mean value[13] |
2.7 (Base=531) |
2.8 (Base=547) |
2.9 (Base=586) |
2.9 (Base=566) |
3.3+/-0.1 (Base=561) |
+0.4[14] |
|
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate [13] |
33% |
36% |
40% |
38% |
44+/-4% |
+6%[14] |
|
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate [13] |
40% |
40% |
34%[14] |
35% |
26+/-4% |
-9%[14] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-7% |
-4% |
6%[14] |
2% |
18+/-7% |
+16%[14] |
|
Mean value[13] |
2.8 (Base=599) |
2.9 (Base=533) |
3.0 (Base=572) |
3.0 (Base=587) |
3.1+/-0.1 (Base=596) |
+0.1 |
|
Improving people’s livelihood: Satisfaction rate [13] |
26% |
26% |
31%[14] |
26%[14] |
39+/-4% |
+13%[14] |
|
Improving people’s livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate [13] |
52% |
52% |
49% |
49% |
38+/-4% |
-11%[14] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-27% |
-26% |
-18%[14] |
-22% |
1+/-7% |
+23%[14] |
|
Mean value[13] |
2.5 (Base=584) |
2.6 (Base=607) |
2.7 (Base=587) |
2.6 (Base=534) |
2.9+/-0.1 (Base=623) |
+0.3[14] |
|
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate [13] |
31%[14] |
32% |
32% |
36% |
36+/-4% |
-- |
|
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate[13] |
49% |
47% |
50% |
43%[14] |
44+/-4% |
+1% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-18%[14] |
-14% |
-18% |
-7%[14] |
-8+/-7% |
-1% |
|
Mean value[13] |
2.6[14] (Base=573) |
2.6 (Base=561) |
2.6 (Base=577) |
2.8[14] (Base=536) |
2.7+/-0.1 (Base=588) |
-0.1 |
|
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate [13] |
21% |
24% |
24% |
25% |
30+/-4% |
+5%[14] |
|
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate [13] |
55% |
51% |
57%[14] |
52%[14] |
49+/-4% |
-3% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-35% |
-27%[14] |
-33% |
-27% |
-18+/-7% |
+9%[14] |
|
Mean value[13] |
2.3 (Base=568) |
2.5[14] (Base=594) |
2.4 (Base=549) |
2.5 (Base=542) |
2.6+/-0.1 (Base=530) |
+0.1 |
* “Overall response rate” was used before September 2017, thereafter, “effective response rate” was used.
[11] These questions only use sub-samples of the surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies. Since July 2017, this survey series has been changed to once every 6 months.
[12] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[13] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[14] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the Government’s performance in handling its relation with the Central Government, with a net satisfaction rate of positive 26 percentage points. The Government’s performance in maintaining economic prosperity followed, attaining a net satisfaction rate of positive 18 percentage points. That in improving people’s livelihood attained a net satisfaction rate of positive 1 percentage point. Lastly, the net satisfaction rates of the Government’s performance in protecting human rights and freedom and developing democracy stand at negative 8 and negative 18 percentage points respectively. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 3.3, 3.1, 2.9, 2.7 and 2.6 respectively, which are in between “quite satisfied” and “quite dissatisfied” in general.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 19 to 22 June, 2017 while this survey was conducted from 18 to 19 December, 2017. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
15/12/17 |
Chief Executive Carrie Lam pays a duty visit to Beijing. |
|
11/12/17 |
LegCo restores the debate on amendments to the Rules of Procedure. |
|
5/12/17 |
The cost of the main construction works for the MTR Shatin-Central Link is expected to overrun of 16.5 billion. |
|
27/11/17 |
The Legislative Council Commission decides to recover 11.74 millions of remuneration and operating expenses paid to Leung Kwok-hung, Law Kwun-chung, Lau Siu-lai and Yiu Chung-yim, who have been disqualified from assuming the office of Members of LegCo. |
|
23/11/17 |
The Hong Kong Government held a seminar on the 19th National Congress. |
|
22/11/17 |
Hang Seng Index ends above the level of 30,000 for the first time in ten years. |
|
20/11/17 |
Subsidised housing units of the Hong Kong Housing Society see oversubscription. |
|
18/11/17 |
The Hong Kong and Guangdong governments sign the Co-operation Arrangement for the Express Rail Link. |
|
17/11/17 |
The government releases the Hong Kong Poverty Situation Report 2016 with an increased poverty rate of 19.9%. |
|
16/11/17 |
Basic Law Committee Chairman Li Fei delivers speech at the Basic Law Seminar in Hong Kong. |
|
4/11/17 |
The National People’s Congress Standing Committee passes decisions to include the national anthem law in Annex III of the Hong Kong Basic Law. |
|
31/10/17 |
Carrie Lam clarifies that the figure of 800,000 public rental flats is not a ceiling. |
II. Public Sentiment Index
Background
The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal, the grading reference of the scores are shown below. For methodological detailed please refer to the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk.
POP started to pilot study the “Public Sentiment Index” in year 2010 in collaboration with NowTV. The first survey was conducted in June 2010, followed by a series of monthly tracking surveys in 2011. There were altogether 13 surveys, covered by 11 releases from March 2011 to January 2012. All results have been uploaded to the POP Site.
At the end of June 2012, before the 15th anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong, POP officially released a “PSI analysis” with figures dating back to 1992, spanning over 20 years. Moreover, the frequency of the study was set at twice a month. In October 2012, echoing the start of a new Legislative Council, POP decided to set the cut-off date of all PSI analyses at the Sunday proceeding every 15th and last day of month, whereas the release date was set at the first Thursday following the cut-off date. In July 2017, after the 20th anniversary of the handover, POP further streamlined the release date and mode of PSI analyses to become POP Site release only for the first analysis of each month, and POP Site plus press release for the second analysis of each month. At the same time, the second release was shifted to the first Tuesday of the following month, except under special circumstances.
Cut-off date of the PSI figures released by POP today is December 31, 2017, while that of the next round of release will be January 14, 2018. The tentative release date for the next release will be January 18, 2018 (Thursday).
Latest Figures of PSI
The PSI released by POP today shows that as of December 31, 2017, the latest Public Sentiment Index (PSI) is 111.3, up 6.1 from early December. As for the Government Appraisal (GA) and Society Appraisal (SA), the scores are 109.0 and 104.1, up 1.8 and 9.2 respectively. The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:
|
|
|||
|
Latest figure |
Public Sentiment Index
|
Government Appraisal
|
Society Appraisal
|
Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:
|
Release date |
12/10/17 |
7/11/17 |
16/11/17 |
5/12/17 |
14/12/17 |
2/1/18 |
Latest change[16] |
|
Cut-off date |
8/10/17 |
29/10/17 |
12/11/17 |
26/11/17 |
10/12/17 |
31/12/17 |
-- |
|
Public Sentiment Index (PSI) |
109.0 |
116.7 |
109.0 |
122.4 |
105.2 |
111.3 |
+6.1 |
|
Government Appraisal (GA) |
109.4 |
116.4 |
109.7 |
118.6 |
107.2 |
109.0 |
+1.8 |
|
Rating of CE |
59.6 |
62.0 |
58.9 |
62.9 |
55.7 |
58.3 |
+2.6 |
|
Net approval rate of CE |
10% |
20% |
15% |
23% |
12% |
12% |
-- |
|
Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG |
2.9 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
+0.1 |
|
Mean value of people’s trust in SARG |
3.1 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
-- |
|
Society Appraisal (SA) |
99.5 |
106.3 |
99.3 |
114.4 |
94.9 |
104.1 |
+9.2 |
|
People’s satisfaction with political condition |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
-0.1 |
|
Weighting index of political condition |
0.30[15] |
0.30[15] |
0.30[15] |
0.30[15] |
0.30[15] |
0.31 |
-- |
|
People’s satisfaction with economic condition |
3.0 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
3.1 |
+0.3 |
|
Weighting index of economic condition |
0.34[15] |
0.34[15] |
0.34[15] |
0.34[15] |
0.34[15] |
0.34 |
-- |
|
People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition |
2.6 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
+0.2 |
|
Weighting index of livelihood condition |
0.36[15] |
0.36[15] |
0.36[15] |
0.36[15] |
0.36[15] |
0.36 |
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[15] POP will adopt the latest published weighting index figures when there are no respective updates.
[16] Latest changes are based on the differences between the exact values of the two figures, but not the rounded figures shown in the table.
As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:
|
Score value |
Percentile |
Score value |
Percentile |
|
140-200 |
Highest 1% |
0-60 |
Lowest 1% |
|
125 |
Highest 5% |
75 |
Lowest 5% |
|
120 |
Highest 10% |
80 |
Lowest 10% |
|
110 |
Highest 25% |
90 |
Lowest 25% |
|
100 being normal level, meaning half above half below |
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The latest PSI of 111.3 can be considered as among the best 23% across the past 25 years, while the GA and SA scores of 109.0 and 104.1 can be considered as among the best 27% and 39% respectively.
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of POP, Frank Lee.
Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has rebounded by 2.6 marks from its record low registered two weeks ago to 58.3. Her latest approval rate is 49%, disapproval rate 36%, giving a net popularity of positive 12 percentage points.
As for the SAR Government, its popularity has not changed much over the past two weeks. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 38%, dissatisfaction rate 35%, giving a net satisfaction rate of positive 3 percentage points. As for people’s trust in the government, the trust rate now stands at 48%, distrust rate 35%, giving a net trust of positive 14 percentage points. As for the society’s appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are positive 15, negative 15 and negative 46 percentage points.
As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, handling of its relation with the Central Government, maintaining economic prosperity and improving people’s livelihood registered positive values, at positive 26, positive 18 and positive 1 percentage point respectively. The other two items registered negative values, protecting human rights and freedom at negative 8 percentage points and developing democracy at negative 18 percentage points. Compared to six months ago, the net satisfaction rates of four among the five indicators have increased significantly. Among them, the net satisfaction rates of maintaining economic prosperity and improving people’s livelihood are at record high since 2008, while those of handling its relation with the Central Government and developing democracy are at record high since 2011.
As for the Public Sentiment Index (PSI), the latest PSI stands at 111.3, up 6.1 points since mid-December. This time both component scores of PSI increase. Specifically, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance goes up by 1.8 points to 109.0, and the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment increases by 9.2 points to 104.1. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”.
Future Release (Tentative)
Reference Materials on Survey on PSI Please refer to the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk.
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