HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack
Press Release on December 12, 2017(Original version)
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) | Detailed Findings (Popularity of Principal Officials) |
Special Announcements
1. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has also added mobile numbers to the sampling frame. After three months of testing, in October 2017, POP formalized the use of mixed samples as its standard for regular opinion surveys. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples, while “effective response rate” is continued to be used to describe the survey’s contact information. As for the weighting method, a two-step protocol is used. First, both the landline and mobile samples have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end, and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution as well as economic activity status distribution collected in the 2011 Census. After that, the mobile sample was rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample, and then mixed together to produce the final results. This weighting method has proved to be feasible after three months of testing, but POP will continue to review and enhance it, and keep the public informed.
2. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP today released via the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data and related respondents’ demographics of the latest rating survey of CE Carrie Lam, together with those of regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung released earlier, for public examination. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,034 Hong Kong people between 4 and 6 December, 2017 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has significantly decreased by 3.2 marks to 55.7. It is her lowest rating since she took office. Her latest approval rate is 49%, disapproval rate 37%, giving a net popularity of positive 12 percentage points. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 50.7 marks. His approval rate is 31%, disapproval rate 21%, giving a net popularity of positive 9 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS Paul Chan is 42.2 marks, approval rate 22%, disapproval rate 39%, thus a net popularity of negative 17 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 41.3 marks, approval rate 24%, disapproval rate 42%, his net popularity has significantly decreased by 23 percentage points to negative 18 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating and net approval rate, Matthew Cheung continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rate of only 1 among 13 Directors has gone up, that is Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, while the other 12 have gone down. Among them, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Security John Lee, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip and Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan register significant changes in their net approval rates, down by 14, 11, 11, 9 and 6 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Lau Kong-wah registers negative popularity, at negative 23 percentage points. Sophia Chan is currently the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 37 percentage points. According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Carrie Lam, Sophia Chan, Law Chi-kwong, Wong Kam-sing, Matthew Cheung, Rimsky Yuen, Lau Kong-wah and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Edward Yau, Joshua Law, Nicholas Yang, John Lee, Frank Chan, Kevin Yeung, James Lau, Michael Wong and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. No one falls into the category of “depressing” or “disastrous”. The maximum sampling error of all approval and disapproval rates is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net approval rates need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 61%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[3] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
[4] The sample size of this survey is 1,034 successful interviews, not 1,034 x 61.0% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[5] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-2.1, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, and sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level”.
Latest Figures
POP today releases the latest popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam and various Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system. From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity status is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end, the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and the economic activity status distribution collected in the 2011 Census. The mobile sample has also been rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Effective sample size |
Effective response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[8] |
|
4-6/12/2017 |
1,034 |
61.0% |
+/-3% |
[8] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings and net approval rates are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sampling errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sample size and maximum sampling errors for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:
|
Sample size (total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling error of percentages[9] (maximum values) |
Sample size (total sample or sub-sample) |
Sampling error of percentages[9] (maximum values) |
|
1,300 |
+/- 2.8% |
1,350 |
+/- 2.7% |
|
1,200 |
+/- 2.9% |
1,250 |
+/- 2.8% |
|
1,100 |
+/- 3.0% |
1,150 |
+/- 3.0% |
|
1,000 |
+/- 3.2% |
1,050 |
+/- 3.1% |
|
900 |
+/- 3.3% |
950 |
+/- 3.2% |
|
800 |
+/- 3.5% |
850 |
+/- 3.4% |
|
700 |
+/- 3.8% |
750 |
+/- 3.7% |
|
600 |
+/- 4.1% |
650 |
+/- 3.9% |
|
500 |
+/- 4.5% |
550 |
+/- 4.3% |
|
400 |
+/- 5.0% |
450 |
+/- 4.7% |
[9] Based on 95% confidence interval.
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
12-15/9/17 |
3-4/10/17 |
11/10/17 [7] |
16-19/10/17 |
6-9/11/17 |
4-6/12/17 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base |
816 |
1,005 |
673 |
1,009 |
1,002 |
1,034 |
-- |
|
Response rate* |
56.0% |
59.5% |
63.5% |
64.5% |
57.6% |
61.0% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error [10] |
-- |
|
Rating of CE Carrie Lam |
56.4[11] |
59.6[11] |
61.1 |
62.0 |
58.9[11] |
55.7+/-1.6 |
-3.2[11] |
|
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
47% |
49% |
53% |
53% |
50% |
49+/-3% |
-1% |
|
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
41%[11] |
40% |
29%[11] |
33%[11] |
36% |
37+/-3% |
+1% |
|
Net approval rate |
7%[11] |
10% |
23%[11] |
20% |
15% |
12+/-6% |
-3% |
* “Overall response rate” was used before September 2017, thereafter,
“effective response rate” was used.
[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level.
“95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100
times, using the same questions each time but with different random
samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins
specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6,
sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, sampling error of net
approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting
the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the
POP Site.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
3-6/7/17 |
2-7/8/17 |
1-6/9/17 |
3-4/10/17 |
6-9/11/17 |
4-6/12/17 |
Latest change |
|
Sample base[12] |
484-557 |
613-638 |
551-593 |
533-547 |
700-729 |
720-824 |
-- |
|
Response rate* |
71.5% |
70.9% |
49.8% |
59.5% |
57.6% |
61.0% |
-- |
|
Latest finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error [13] |
-- |
|
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung |
57.6[14] |
56.2 |
55.4 |
53.9 |
54.6 |
50.7+/-1.7 |
-3.9[14] |
|
Vote of confidence in
|
39%[14] |
37% |
32%[14] |
33% |
35% |
31+/-3% |
-4%[14] |
|
Vote of no confidence in
|
18% |
16% |
11%[14] |
19%[14] |
19% |
21+/-3% |
+2% |
|
Net approval rate |
21%[14] |
21% |
21% |
14%[14] |
17% |
9+/-5% |
-8%[14] |
|
Rating of FS Paul Chan |
40.5[14] |
41.2 |
42.7 |
40.6 |
43.7[14] |
42.2+/-2.0 |
-1.5 |
|
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan |
22%[14] |
25% |
21%[14] |
22% |
23% |
22+/-3% |
-1% |
|
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan |
41%[14] |
44% |
38%[14] |
43%[14] |
38%[14] |
39+/-4% |
+1% |
|
Net approval rate |
-19%[14] |
-19% |
-17% |
-21% |
-15% |
-17+/-6% |
-2% |
|
Rating of SJ Rimsky Yuen |
52.8[14] |
50.9 |
46.4[14] |
43.4[14] |
48.3[14] |
41.3+/-2.1 |
-7.0[14] |
|
Vote of confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen |
37%[14] |
38% |
31%[14] |
29% |
34%[14] |
24+/-3% |
-10%[14] |
|
Vote of no confidence in SJ Rimsky Yuen |
23%[14] |
23% |
33%[14] |
39%[14] |
30%[14] |
42+/-3% |
+12%[14] |
|
Net approval rate |
14%[14] |
15% |
-3%[14] |
-9% |
5%[14] |
-18+/-6% |
-23%[14] |
* “Overall response rate” was used before September 2017, thereafter,
“effective response rate” was used.
[12] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE
popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the
same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples
of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also
varies.
[13] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-2.1, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[14] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates:
|
Date of survey |
3-4/10/17 |
6-9/11/17 |
4-6/12/17 |
Latest change |
|||
|
Sample base [15] |
580-660 |
575-622 |
566-674 |
-- |
|||
|
Response rate* |
59.5% |
57.6% |
61.0% |
-- |
|||
|
Sample base for each question /
|
Base |
% |
Base |
% |
Base |
% &
|
-- |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan |
620 |
46% |
589 |
48% |
566 |
45+/-4% |
-3% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan |
620 |
8%[17] |
589 |
5%[17] |
566 |
8+/-2% |
+3% [17] |
|
Net approval rate |
620 |
37% |
589 |
43%[17] [20] |
566 |
37+/-5% |
-6% [17] |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong |
627 |
44% |
597 |
46% |
586 |
43+/-4% |
-3% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong |
627 |
10% |
597 |
10% |
586 |
11+/-3% |
+1% |
|
Net approval rate |
627 |
34% |
597 |
35% |
586 |
32+/-6%[21] |
-3% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau |
643 |
43% |
594 |
49%[17] |
638 |
41+/-4% |
-8% [17] |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau |
643 |
11%[17] |
594 |
6%[17] |
638 |
9+/-2% |
+3% [17] |
|
Net approval rate |
643 |
33% |
594 |
43%[17] [20] |
638 |
32+/-5%[21] |
-11% [17] |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law |
660 |
41% |
622 |
39% |
642 |
36+/-4% |
-3% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law |
660 |
6% |
622 |
7% |
642 |
9+/-2% |
+2% |
|
Net approval rate |
660 |
35% |
622 |
31% |
642 |
27+/-5% |
-4% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing |
612 |
40% |
603 |
42% |
619 |
39+/-4% |
-3% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing |
612 |
18% |
603 |
15% |
619 |
17+/-3% |
+2% |
|
Net approval rate |
612 |
22% |
603 |
27% |
619 |
22+/-6% |
-5% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau |
639 |
26% |
612 |
26% |
674 |
23+/-3% |
-3% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau |
639 |
6% |
612 |
6% |
674 |
7+/-2% |
+1% |
|
Net approval rate |
639 |
20%[18] |
612 |
20% |
674 |
16+/-4% |
-4% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong |
580 |
28% |
593 |
26% |
596 |
23+/-3% |
-3% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong |
580 |
12% |
593 |
10% |
596 |
9+/-2% |
-1% |
|
Net approval rate |
580 |
16% |
593 |
17% |
596 |
14+/-5% |
-3% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee |
590 |
31% |
601 |
34% |
606 |
29+/-4% |
-5% [17] |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee |
590 |
17%[17] |
601 |
10%[17] |
606 |
15+/-3% |
+5% [17] |
|
Net approval rate |
590 |
15%[17] |
601 |
24%[17] |
606 |
13+/-5% |
-11% [17] |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang |
608 |
30%[17] |
576 |
31% |
617 |
29+/-4% |
-2% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang |
608 |
20%[17] |
576 |
24% |
617 |
20+/-3% |
-4% [17] |
|
Net approval rate |
608 |
10% |
576 |
7% |
617 |
9+/-6% |
+2% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan |
598 |
35%[17] |
575 |
30%[17] |
627 |
28+/-4% |
-2% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan |
598 |
15%[17] |
575 |
20%[17] |
627 |
21+/-3% |
+1% |
|
Net approval rate |
598 |
20%[18] |
575 |
11%[17] |
627 |
7+/-6% |
-4% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung |
605 |
31% |
615 |
31% |
628 |
26+/-4% |
-5% [17] |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung |
605 |
22%[17] |
615 |
25% |
628 |
24+/-3% |
-1% |
|
Net approval rate |
605 |
9%[19] |
615 |
6% |
628 |
3+/-6% |
-3% |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip |
631 |
21% |
605 |
21% |
609 |
18+/-3% |
-3% |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip |
631 |
12% |
605 |
11% |
609 |
17+/-3% |
+6% [17] |
|
Net approval rate |
631 |
9%[19] |
605 |
10% |
609 |
1+/-5% |
-9% [17] |
|
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah |
641 |
24% |
594 |
30%[17] |
600 |
24+/-3% |
-6% [17] |
|
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah |
641 |
45%[17] |
594 |
39%[17] |
600 |
46+/-4% |
+7% [17] |
|
Net approval rate |
641 |
-21%[17] |
594 |
-9%[17] |
600 |
-23+/-7% |
-14% [17] |
* “Overall response rate” was used before September 2017, thereafter,
“effective response rate” was used.
[15] Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the
tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
[16] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net approval rates not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[17] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[18] Based on the figures in early October, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau are 20.2 and 19.7 percentage points. Thus, they ranked sixth and seventh at that time.
[19] Based on the figures in early October, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung are 9.4 and 9.2 percentage points. Thus, they ranked eleventh and twelfth at that time.
[20] Based on the figures in early November, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau and Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan are 43.4 and 43.0 percentage points. Thus, they ranked first and second this time.
[21] Based on the figures of latest survey, in one decimal place, the respective net approval rates of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward are 32.4 and 32.0 percentage points. Thus, they ranked second and third this time.
The latest survey showed that, CE Carrie Lam scored 55.7 marks, and 49% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is positive 12 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Matthew Cheung, FS Paul Chan and SJ Rimsky Yuen were 50.7, 42.2 and 41.3 marks, and 31%, 22% and 24% would vote for their reappointments correspondingly. Their net approval rates are positive 9, negative 17 and negative 18 percentage points respectively.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, attaining positive 37 percentage points. The 2nd and 3rd places belong to Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong and Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, both with net approval rates of positive 32 percentage points. Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Security John Lee, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip and Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah ranked 4th to 13th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 27, positive 22, positive 16, positive 14, positive 13, positive 9, positive 7, positive 3, positive 1 and negative 23 percentage points. In other words, no Director scored a net approval rate of over 50%.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 6 to 9 November, 2017 while this survey was conducted from 4 to 6 December, 2017. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
5/12/17 |
The cost of the main construction works for the MTR Shatin-Central Link is expected to overrun of 16.5 billion. |
|
27/11/17 |
The Legislative Council Commission decides to recover 11.74 millions of remuneration and operating expenses paid to Leung Kwok-hung, Law Kwun-chung, Lau Siu-lai and Yiu Chung-yim, who have been disqualified from assuming the office of Members of LegCo. |
|
25/11/17 |
Leisure and Cultural Services Department mistakenly pays an excessive amount of $870,000 housing allowance. |
|
23/11/17 |
The Hong Kong Government held a seminar on the 19th National Congress. |
|
21/11/17 |
Former Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho is arrested in New York over alleged bribes offered to African government officials. |
|
20/11/17 |
Subsidised housing units of the Hong Kong Housing Society see oversubscription. |
|
18/11/17 |
The Hong Kong and Guangdong governments sign the Co-operation Arrangement for the Express Rail Link. |
|
17/11/17 |
The government releases the Hong Kong Poverty Situation Report 2016 with an increased poverty rate of 19.9%. |
|
16/11/17 |
Basic Law Committee Chairman Li Fei delivers speech at the Basic Law Seminar in Hong Kong. |
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Senior Data Analyst of POP, Edward Chit-Fai Tai.
Our latest survey conducted in early December shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has significantly decreased by 3.2 marks to 55.7. It is her lowest rating since she took office. Her latest approval rate is 49%, disapproval rate 37%, giving a net popularity of positive 12 percentage points.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 50.7 marks. His approval rate is 31%, disapproval rate 21%, giving a net popularity of positive 9 percentage points. The latest support rating of FS Paul Chan is 42.2 marks, approval rate 22%, disapproval rate 39%, thus a net popularity of negative 17 percentage points. As for SJ Rimsky Yuen, his support rating is 41.3 marks, approval rate 24%, disapproval rate 42%, his net popularity has significantly decreased by 23 percentage points to negative 18 percentage points. In terms of popularity rating and net approval rate, Matthew Cheung continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department.
As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rate of only 1 among 13 Directors has gone up, that is Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, while the other 12 have gone down. Among them, Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau, Secretary for Security John Lee, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip and Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan register significant changes in their net approval rates, down by 14, 11, 11, 9 and 6 percentage points respectively. Among all the Directors, only Lau Kong-wah registers negative popularity, at negative 23 percentage points. Sophia Chan is currently the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 37 percentage points.
According to POP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Carrie Lam, Sophia Chan, Law Chi-kwong, Wong Kam-sing, Matthew Cheung, Rimsky Yuen, Lau Kong-wah and Paul Chan can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Edward Yau, Joshua Law, Nicholas Yang, John Lee, Frank Chan, Kevin Yeung, James Lau, Michael Wong and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. No one falls into the category of “depressing” or “disastrous”.
The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials for readers’ easy reference:
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“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
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“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
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“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets |
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CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (49%); Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (45%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (43%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (39%); CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (31%); SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung (24%) [22]; Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (24%)[22]; FS Paul Chan Mo-po (22%) |
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“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate |
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Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (41%, 49%); Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law Chi-kong (36%, 45%); Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (29%, 50%)[23]; Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (29%, 44%)[23]; Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (28%, 49%); Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (26%, 50%); Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Henry Lau Jr (23%, 29%)[24]; Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (23%, 31%) [24]; Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (18%, 35%) |
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“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets |
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“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets |
[22] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of SJ Rimsky Yuen Kwok-keung and Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah are 24.2% and 23.7%.
[23] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun and Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu are 29.3% and 28.6%.
[24] In one decimal place, the respective approval rates of Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Henry Lau Jr and Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun are 22.6% and 22.5%.
Future Release (Tentative)
