HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack
Press Release on November 28, 2017
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) | (People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government)
| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with Current Political, Economic and livelihood conditions) |
Special Announcements
1. From July 2017, apart from sampling landline numbers to conduct opinion surveys, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of The University of Hong Kong has also added mobile numbers to the sampling frame. After three months of testing, in October 2017, POP formalized the use of mixed samples as its standard for regular opinion surveys. The figures released today by POP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples, while “effective response rate” is continued to be used to describe the survey’s contact information. As for the weighting method, a two-step protocol is used. First, both the landline and mobile samples have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end, and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution as well as economic activity status distribution collected in the 2011 Census. After that, the mobile sample was rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample, and then mixed together to produce the final results. This weighting method has proved to be feasible after three months of testing, but POP will continue to review and enhance it, and keep the public informed.
2. To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, POP has already released for public examination some time ago via the “POP SITE” the raw data of all regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang, CY Leung and CE Carrie Lam along with related demographics of respondents. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Abstract
POP interviewed 1,011 Hong Kong people between 14 and 16 November 2017 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has significantly increased by 4.0 marks from early November to 62.9. Her latest approval rate is 54%, disapproval rate is 31%, giving a net popularity of positive 23 percentage points, which goes up significantly by 8 percentage points from early November. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has also increased significantly. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 47%, dissatisfaction rate 30%, the net satisfaction rate has significantly increased by 12 percentage points to positive 17 percentage points, which is a record high since May 2008. The latest trust rate now stands at 55%, distrust rate 26%, its net trust has also significantly increased by 17 percentage points to positive 29 percentage points, which is a record high since September 2010. As for the society’s appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are positive 13, positive 1 and negative 41 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 63%.
Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,011 successful interviews, not 1,011 x 62.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.
Latest Figures
POP today releases on schedule via the “POP SITE” the latest popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam and the HKSAR Government. From July 2017, POP enhanced the previous weighting method that has been used for quite a few years. Apart from age, gender and education, economic activity status is now also taken into account when adjusting data. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 year-end, the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and the economic activity status distribution collected in the 2011 Census. The mobile sample has also been rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
|
Date of survey |
Effective sample size |
Effective response rate |
Maximum sampling error of percentages[6] |
|
14-16/11/2017 |
1,011 |
62.8% |
+/-3% |
[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam and the HKSAR Government, as well as people’s appraisal of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
12-15/9/17 |
3-4/10/17 |
11/10/17 [7] |
16-19/10/17 |
6-9/11/17 |
14-16/11/17 |
Latest Change |
|
Sample base |
816 |
1,005 |
673 |
1,009 |
1,002 |
1,011 |
-- |
|
Response rate* |
56.0% |
59.5% |
63.5% |
64.5% |
57.6% |
62.8% |
-- |
|
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding and error[8] |
-- |
|
Rating of CE Carrie Lam |
56.4[10] |
59.6[10] |
61.1 |
62.0 |
58.9[10] |
62.9+/-1.5 |
+4.0[10] |
|
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
47% |
49% |
53% |
53% |
50% |
54+/-3% |
+4%[10] |
|
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
41%[10] |
40% |
29%[10] |
33%[10] |
36% |
31+/-3% |
-5%[10] |
|
Net approval rate |
7%[10] |
10% |
23%[10] |
20% |
15% |
23+/-6% |
+8%[10] |
|
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[9] |
40% |
40% |
-- |
45%[10] |
40%[10] |
47+/-4% |
+7%[10] |
|
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[9] |
37%[10] |
39% |
-- |
29%[10] |
34%[10] |
30+/-3% |
-4%[10] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
2% |
1% |
-- |
16%[10] |
5%[10] |
17+/-6% |
+12%[10] |
|
Mean value[9] |
2.9 (Base=656) |
2.9 (Base=522) |
-- |
3.1[10] (Base=676) |
3.0 (Base=712) |
3.2+/-0.1 (Base=755) |
+0.2[10] |
|
Trust in HKSAR Government[9] |
44%[10] |
51%[10] |
-- |
52% |
47%[10] |
55+/-4% |
+8%[10] |
|
Distrust in HKSAR Government[9] |
38%[10] |
35% |
-- |
29%[10] |
35%[10] |
26+/-3% |
-9%[10] |
|
Net trust |
6%[10] |
16%[10] |
-- |
23% |
12%[10] |
29+/-6% |
+17%[10] |
|
Mean value[9] |
3.0[10] (Base=662) |
3.1 (Base=525) |
-- |
3.2 (Base=678) |
3.1 (Base=713) |
3.3+/-0.1 (Base=760) |
+0.2[10] |
|
Current economic condition:
|
40% |
40% |
-- |
45%[10] |
37%[10] |
43+/-3% |
+6%[10] |
|
Current economic condition:
|
33% |
36% |
-- |
34% |
38%[10] |
30+/-3% |
-8%[10] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
7% |
4% |
-- |
11%[10] |
<1%[10] |
13+/-5% |
+13%[10] |
|
Mean value[9] |
3.0 (Base=799) |
3.0 (Base=998) |
-- |
3.1 (Base=982) |
2.9[10] (Base=984) |
3.1+/-0.1 (Base=987) |
+0.2[10] |
|
Current livelihood condition:
|
30%[10] |
28% |
-- |
31% |
28% |
37+/-3% |
+9%[10] |
|
Current livelihood condition:
|
49% |
53%[10] |
-- |
46%[10] |
51%[10] |
37+/-3% |
-14%[10] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-20%[10] |
-24% |
-- |
-15%[10] |
-23%[10] |
1+/-5% |
+24%[10] |
|
Mean value[9] |
2.6[10] (Base=807) |
2.6 (Base=996) |
-- |
2.7 (Base=985) |
2.6 (Base=995) |
3.0+/-0.1 (Base=997) |
+0.4[10] |
|
Current political condition:
|
15%[10] |
20%[10] |
-- |
20% |
21% |
21+/-3% |
-- |
|
Current political condition:
|
65%[10] |
58%[10] |
-- |
59% |
58% |
62+/-3% |
+4%[10] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-50%[10] |
-38%[10] |
-- |
-39% |
-37% |
-41+/-5% |
-4% |
|
Mean value[9] |
2.1[10] (Base=767) |
2.3[10] (Base=955) |
-- |
2.3 (Base=954) |
2.3 (Base=958) |
2.3+/-0.1 (Base=967) |
-- |
* “Overall response rate” was used before September 2017, thereafter, “effective response rate” was used.
[7] This survey was the instant survey after the Policy Address and only asked rating of CE as well as her vote of confidence. Its sample size was 673.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Questions on satisfaction and trust on SARG only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 762.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
The latest survey showed that CE Carrie Lam scored 62.9 marks, and 54% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is positive 23 percentage points. Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 47% were satisfied, whereas 30% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at positive 17 percentage points. The mean score is 3.2, which is close to “half-half”. Meanwhile, 55% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, the net trust value is positive 29 percentage points, while the mean score is 3.3, which is close to “half-half”. As for people’s satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates were 43%, 37% and 21% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were positive 13, positive 1 and negative 41 percentage points. The mean scores of the economic, livelihood and political conditions were 3.1, 3.0 and 2.3, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general.
Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age and education attainment. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Carrie Lam as Chief Executive by respondents’ age and education attainment, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:
|
Date of survey: 14-16/11/2017 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[11] |
Support |
30+/-7%
|
63+/-5%
|
56+/-5%
|
54+/-3%
|
|
Oppose |
53+/-8%
|
27+/-5%
|
27+/-4%
|
31+/-3%
|
|
|
Don’t know / Hard to say |
17+/-6%
|
10+/-3%
|
17+/-3%
|
15+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%%
|
|
[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
|
Date of survey: 14-16/11/2017 |
Primary or below |
Secondary |
Tertiary or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[12] |
Support |
57+/-7%
|
59+/-4%
|
43+/-6%
|
54+/-3%
|
|
Oppose |
23+/-6%
|
27+/-4%
|
46+/-6%
|
31+/-3%
|
|
|
Don’t know / Hard to say |
20+/-5%
|
14+/-3%
|
11+/-4%
|
15+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
Opinion Daily
In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 6 to 9 November, 2017 while this survey was conducted from 14 to 16 November, 2017. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
16/11/17 |
Basic Law Committee Chairman Li Fei delivers speech at the Basic Law Seminar in Hong Kong. |
|
10/11/17 |
President Xi Jinping attends APEC in Da Nang, Vietnam. |
|
8/11/17 |
US President Donald Trump embarks on his first state visit to China. |
Commentary
Frank Wai-Kin Lee, Research Manager of POP, observed, “Our latest survey conducted in mid-November shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam has significantly increased by 4.0 marks from early November to 62.9. Her latest approval rate is 54%, disapproval rate is 31%, giving a net popularity of positive 23 percentage points, which goes up significantly by 8 percentage points from early November. As for the SAR Government, its popularity has also increased significantly. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 47%, dissatisfaction rate 30%, the net satisfaction rate has significantly increased by 12 percentage points to positive 17 percentage points, which is a record high since May 2008. The latest trust rate now stands at 55%, distrust rate 26%, its net trust has also significantly increased by 17 percentage points to positive 29 percentage points, which is a record high since September 2010. As for the society’s appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are positive 13, positive 1 and negative 41 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”
Future Release (Tentative)
